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COLD OBS / Forecast


NorEaster27

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I think tonight will be the coldest night for NYC with northerly/NNE winds by morning and -20c 850s. Friday morning might be the coldest for suburbia as radiational cooling conditions improve in association w/ the sfc ridge. Could see widespread single digits outside of the city for Fri morning.

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Central Park has a shot at the first 7 day 32 degree or lower streak since 2005 if we can hold the high on Sunday

to 32 degrees or below.

 

Jan...2005....9

Jan...2004....9 

Jan...2003...11

DJ....00-01..13

Jan...2000....7

Jan..1996.....9

Dec...1989...9

Jan....1988...7

Jan.....1984..8

Jan.....1982..8

Jan.....1981..11

Feb.....1979..11

JF.......1978..12

Jan.....1977...9

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Yeah this looked like a potential 19-20F day to me for NYC, but I'm impressed at the 16F number as of the last observation. Today's departure might pencil in about a -18, and tomorrow looks potentially just as cold with a second sfc high building across the Northeast.

 

 

Well it looks like 19F will in fact do it for NYC, assuming there isn't another jump. Newark back down to 19 after reaching 21.

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Well it looks like 19F will in fact do it for NYC, assuming there isn't another jump. Newark back down to 19 after reaching 21.

Oh dang, maybe they'll hit 20 after all.  Guess I should've been a bit more nervous about it considering a lot of the surrounding stations were noticeably warmer....

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Special Statement from Upton:

 


... Cold snap will continue through at least Friday... 

The current stretch of cold weather... with temperatures 10 to 15
degrees below mid winter averages... will continue into at least
Friday as an upper level disturbance passing through tonight
brings a reinforcing shot of Arctic air. Lows both tonight and
Thursday night should fall to 10 to 15 in and around New York
City... and into the single digits most elsewhere. Isolated spots
in the valleys well north and west of New York City... and possibly
also the Long Island Pine barrens region... could see temperatures
around zero.

As winds diminish tonight... below zero wind chills are not
expected. However... as northwest winds increase to 10 to 20
mph... wind chills should drop to zero to 10 below zero from just
before daybreak to around midday on Thursday. Similar wind chills
should occur Thursday night. 

Arctic air will remain in place Friday into Friday night as low
pressure passes off to the southeast and brings some light snow.
Slow moderation in temperatures and wind chills should then begin
over the weekend into early next week in the wake of this system.

Significant impacts that warrant extra caution during this cold
snap include the potential for frozen water pipes and fire
sprinkler piping. For those venturing out... wear a warm coat and
gloves... cover your head... and dress in layers to limit direct
exposure and prevent frostbite and hypothermia.

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Looks like my parents in Ewing topped out at 21.2 today...  that seems a smidge warm and I'm starting to wonder if the sensor is running slightly hot.

 

 

Yeah looks like TTN topped out at 18, maybe 19 in between the hourlies, and most of Monmouth in the 19-20F range. BLM at 19. The 21F might be 0.5 degree or 0.75 degree too warm, maybe.

 

NYC's going to be close. At noon it looked like they were a done deal for teens, but as you said, EWR was already "torching" to 20 at the time. We'll see. Either way a nice -15 to -17 day on tap.

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Saw 18 in Colts Neck today , down to 16  ,the  forecasted low is 11 ,  I think we challenge that . If there`s a day that some may see a ZERO reading it may  be SUN morning , light winds , 850s Minus 20 plus in the area  with prob 2 ( I think 3 ) Inches of snow cover . I think thats our coldest morning  .

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Park hit 20...

 

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/DF.c5/DC.textf/DS.dsmcx/sn.0233.txt  (time sensitive)

CXUS41 KOKX 232017DSMNYCKNYC DS 1500 23/01 201426/ 110843// 20/ 11//0161459/00/00/00/00/00/00/00/00/00/00/00/00/00/00/00/00/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/28170049/28261419

 

Dang...

Yea the PWSs in the vicinity were at 20-22, and they are usually pretty close to the park during the daytime.

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:facepalm:

 

I think we might have a chance tomorrow if the cloud cover can linger into the afternoon hours

Nah , you prob dont get  there without snow cover . Not saying it cant happen , but its hard - Sat nite you will have a few inches to work with

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Yeah looks like TTN topped out at 18, maybe 19 in between the hourlies, and most of Monmouth in the 19-20F range. BLM at 19. The 21F might be 0.5 degree or 0.75 degree too warm, maybe.

 

They got to 19 between the hours, but that's still 2 degrees below my parents so yeah I'm growing more convinced my parents sensor has a warm bias.  Its funny, before they replaced the thermometer at TTN back in May, my parents often ran colder. 

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Ray , I have a question for you , Tues CPK  normal splits are 38 - 27    Tues max was 27 and min was 18    so we were 11 below the high and 9 below the low  should equate to  10 below , but  did the NWS claim the dep was actually 9 ? 

 

They add  38 and  27 which comes to  65 - so the split is 32.5 - but they rounded down .32   But when they added the actuals of  27 and 18 which came to 45 - the split was 22.5  they rounded up to 23  ?  gives you 9 ...

Any reason given for the difference  ?  

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Ray , I have a question for you , Tues CPK  normal splits are 38 - 27    Tues max was 27 and min was 18    so we were 11 below the high and 9 below the low  should equate to  10 below , but  did the NWS claim the dep was actually 9 ? 

 

They add  38 and  27 which comes to  65 - so the split is 32.5 - but they rounded down .32   But when they added the actuals of  27 and 18 which came to 45 - the split was 22.5  they rounded up to 23  ?  gives you 9 ...

Any reason given for the difference  ?  

The way the AWIPS software tries to make a whole number out of that has always been weird.  I think someone told me how it works once but I've forgotten.  The AWIPS climate program is the oldest AWIPS program still in use.  Development on a replacement or upgrade is frozen until AWIPS II is completely deployed.

 

I don't even look at the daily departures much.  The monthly departure in the CF6 is independent of the daily numbers and is accurate so usually I just look at the monthly and just glance at the dailies. 

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The way the AWIPS software tries to make a whole number out of that has always been weird.  I think someone told me how it works once but I've forgotten.  The AWIPS climate program is the oldest AWIPS program still in use.  Development on a replacement or upgrade is frozen until AWIPS II is completely deployed.

 

I don't even look at the daily departures much.  The monthly departure in the CF6 is independent of the daily numbers and is accurate so usually I just look at the monthly and just glance at the dailies. 

 

Thank you sir .

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