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COLD OBS / Forecast


NorEaster27

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NYC has temporarily leveled off around 16F with some overcast and flurries.  They are advertising this as "the coldest temps in years" on local media.  Pretty sad, growing up in VA we routinely got down to 0-5F every year.  These days even a sub 10F is noteworthy there.

Even last year saw a low of 13F, and 2011 saw a low of 6F. I don't understand why everyone seems to be freaking out about this cold spell. It isn't really THAT cold. 

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NYC has temporarily leveled off around 16F with some overcast and flurries.  They are advertising this as "the coldest temps in years" on local media.  Pretty sad, growing up in VA we routinely got down to 0-5F every year.  These days even a sub 10F is noteworthy there.

 

In the old days, getting under 10 F was as common as getting over 90 F.

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Even last year saw a low of 13F, and 2011 saw a low of 6F. I don't understand why everyone seems to be freaking out about this cold spell. It isn't really THAT cold. 
I agree. Besides the last 2 or 3 years lows like I have now where not uncommon occasionally . Coldest Ive experienced here was -23, I believe in1994 ?
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850's will be pretty cold over the next 48 hrs, dipping < -20c at times. I think NYC will make it into the single digits either tonight or tomorrow night.

Agreed, especially if we get that north wind cookin'  Right now its more WNW.  We did drop 1deg to 15F in the past hour, however.

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temp24.gif

The map is a good indicator of how we get our coldest weather...when the core of the cold is centered over the province of Quebec and drained south.  This helps to reduce the enormous modification effect the Great Lakes have on southeast bound arctic anticyclones. 

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I agree. Besides the last 2 or 3 years lows like I have now where not uncommon occasionally . Coldest Ive experienced here was -23, I believe in1994 ?

 

We had a lot of extreme cold early in the 2000s despite the globe being a bit warmer in those +ENSO winters...02-03, 03-04, 04-05 all had multiple days with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits/below zero here in Dobbs Ferry. Considering that the downtown only made it down to 3.3F in Jan '09 and 2.8F in Jan '11, 2004 may be the last time the downtown station at low elevation and in an urban environment officially got below zero. Clearly, the cols in the woods behind my house, at 400' and with excellent snowpack retention, have seen 0F in all these outbreaks, and I know my parents had 0F at my thermometer in January 2009. I know a bunch of stations in Southern Westchester hit 0F in 2009 so perhaps the downtown thermometer runs warm. 

 

I'm at 13.3/2 now. I'm not sure NYC makes single digits tonight, but it's a good possibility, and I certainly will here. Thursday night also looks like an excellent radiating night; 850s have warmed to -18C, but the high pressure crests overhead with light north winds draining down the Hudson Valley instead of NWlies downsloping off the Kittatinies/Poconos/Catskills. Don't forget about that, Tom.  :)

 

The media has been totally overplaying this cold outbreak. I worked a lot of delivery shifts at night in Winter 10-11, getting into and out of the car, and I remember many frigid nights in the low teens and single digits during late January 2011, and not just January 24th. Single digits isn't that unusual for Dobbs Ferry; in a cold winter, we often have half a dozen nights with single digits and 1-2 nights at or below 0F. 

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We had a lot of extreme cold early in the 2000s despite the globe being a bit warmer in those +ENSO winters...02-03, 03-04, 04-05 all had multiple days with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits/below zero here in Dobbs Ferry. Considering that the downtown only made it down to 3.3F in Jan '09 and 2.8F in Jan '11, 2004 may be the last time the downtown station at low elevation and in an urban environment officially got below zero. Clearly, the cols in the woods behind my house, at 400' and with excellent snowpack retention, have seen 0F in all these outbreaks, and I know my parents had 0F at my thermometer in January 2009. I know a bunch of stations in Southern Westchester hit 0F in 2009 so perhaps the downtown thermometer runs warm.

I'm at 13.3/2 now. I'm not sure NYC makes single digits tonight, but it's a good possibility, and I certainly will here. Thursday night also looks like an excellent radiating night; 850s have warmed to -18C, but the high pressure crests overhead with light north winds draining down the Hudson Valley instead of NWlies downsloping off the Kittatinies/Poconos/Catskills. Don't forget about that, Tom. :)

The media has been totally overplaying this cold outbreak. I worked a lot of delivery shifts at night in Winter 10-11, getting into and out of the car, and I remember many frigid nights in the low teens and single digits during late January 2011, and not just January 24th. Single digits isn't that unusual for Dobbs Ferry; in a cold winter, we often have half a dozen nights with single digits and 1-2 nights at or below 0F.

its like how everytime we have an inch of snow its "stormwatch 7"..that definitely wasn't the case 20 years ago

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Even last year saw a low of 13F, and 2011 saw a low of 6F. I don't understand why everyone seems to be freaking out about this cold spell. It isn't really THAT cold. 

Today's daytime highs in the low 20's are much colder than anything last year though, and with wind chills in the single digits all day it definitely felt brutal out there.  Not to the level of January 2004 or 2005 but still quite a shock for a lot of people, especially after last year's mild winter.

 

14F here and slowly dropping...NWS forecast low is 10F but I think we have a decent chance of hitting single digits.

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Coldest since '09 for sure.

 

But, 1982, 1994 are in a class by themselves.....

 

January 1982 was one of the great winter months of the century...although a little warmer than the standard bearer for contemporary cold...January 1977...the 1st month of 1982 was a good deal snowier.

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its like how everytime we have an inch of snow its "stormwatch 7"..that definitely wasn't the case 20 years ago

 

More a case of perceptions being subtley altered by the snowlesness of the last 24 months. 

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Today's daytime highs in the low 20's are much colder than anything last year though, and with wind chills in the single digits all day it definitely felt brutal out there.  Not to the level of January 2004 or 2005 but still quite a shock for a lot of people, especially after last year's mild winter.

 

14F here and slowly dropping...NWS forecast low is 10F but I think we have a decent chance of hitting single digits.

 

I don't know if I would say much colder as we did have a 27/13 last year on January 4th, which produced a daily departure of -15F at Central Park, unfortunately wiped away by a +20 departure a few days later. That cold night was the time we got burritos in New Jersey as a group of weenies with LocoAko. The essence of what you're saying is totally correct however since this is so much more sustained and with MUCH colder nighttime lows. We should blow past 13F one of the next three nights, and perhaps over the weekend too, when 850s are only -16C but snow cover could be around and more northerly flow, as opposed to WNW/NW, should dominate. 

 

YOU will definitely get into the single digits. My forecast low is 8F in Dobbs Ferry, and you always radiate beautifully out there, much better than I. I'm at 12.3/-3 right now and headed straight into single digits with mostly clear skies. I might get down to 5-6F if I'm lucky as 850s are still cooling and I sometimes do better on CAA setups with this hilly climate. Gorgeous night folks...enjoy it!

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Yeah, I don't know about NYC, but in Philly they made a big deal about an inch of snow back in 1995.  Not quite 20 years ago but almost.  I don't remember 1993 enough to say.

yea they did it min new york to as far back as i can remember(early 80s)

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