Guest Pamela Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Yeah we're basically in an entirely different climate zone compared to 2004. I'm surprised we can still get below freezing. For Islip to get down to +5 (they have not been below zero since 1988) and Westhampton to get down to -7 F....with an ocean and Sound at least 5 to 7 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year...only an inch or two of snow on the ground at the respective stations, and very poor snow cover to the north over New York and New England relative to normal, I would rate that as a pretty decent arctic airmass. Not an extraordinary one, but a good solid one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Parents got to 9.6 last night. TTN finally hit 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Got up to 20.9 today. Currently 16.2 with a gusty breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Pictures I took today of the Great South Bay and at Heckscher State Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Got all the way down to 4.8 this morning in Bridgewater, the lowest temp I recorded during this cold snap. Just that little bit of snowcover really helped. A few more pics of the partially frozen Raritan today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 there's also the fact that our climate warmed Why do you think that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Little Neck Bay is half frozen from Bayside Marina all the way to the back by Douglaston. Haven't seen that in a couple years. Manhasset Bay is also partially frozen and I imagine every bay east of there is starting to freeze as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 You can see the ice on the Great South Bay from the MODIS pass today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Not bad for a 1 week cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Not bad for a 1 week cold spell. The means shouldn't too far from the coldest weeks in 2007 and 2009, but the lowest mins were just higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Let's play find the loser. Can anyone pick her out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 What is really amazing is that for all the cold air just north of Canada this entire winter, there is still very little deep snow cover south of the U.S. - Canada border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Yeah we're basically in an entirely different climate zone compared to 2004. I'm surprised we can still get below freezing.Bluewave is always trying to play the climate card...global temperatures in 2004 and 2005 were actually warmer than the last two winters, yet those years were able to produce potent arctic outbreaks. 2005 was the warmest year on record for GISS, which is probably his favored source for global temperatures. I agree about wind direction but the main difference is clearly snow cover...850s during this outbreak got down to almost -23C which is similar to 2009 but I had lows around 8-9F instead of near 0F. Most of our big arctic shots had at least modest snow over. December 2010 was an exception and we also bottomed out in the low teens here with highs around 20F. It's just not possible to go sub zero in NYC without snow on the ground. Making this a climate issue is absurd, in my opinion, when you l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Bluewave is always trying to play the climate card...global temperatures in 2004 and 2005 were actually warmer than the last two winters, yet those years were able to produce potent arctic outbreaks. 2005 was the warmest year on record for GISS, which is probably his favored source for global temperatures. I agree about wind direction but the main difference is clearly snow cover...850s during this outbreak got down to almost -23C which is similar to 2009 but I had lows around 8-9F instead of near 0F. Most of our big arctic shots had at least modest snow over. December 2010 was an exception and we also bottomed out in the low teens here with highs around 20F. It's just not possible to go sub zero in NYC without snow on the ground. Making this a climate issue is absurd, in my opinion, when you know global temps were very mild in 2004, one of your comparisons. Agreed it's a combination of wind direcation and snow cover. Last night it was remarkable how quickly temps plummeted w/ clear/calm conditions but w/ the extra variable of 1-2"+ of fresh snow on the ground. The city doesn't radiate, but if we had decent snow on the ground, it's basically like keeping the air refrigerated as it moved southward. The bare ground certainly has a warming effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Agreed it's a combination of wind direcation and snow cover. Last night it was remarkable how quickly temps plummeted w/ clear/calm conditions but w/ the extra variable of 1-2"+ of fresh snow on the ground. The city doesn't radiate, but if we had decent snow on the ground, it's basically like keeping the air refrigerated as it moved southward. The bare ground certainly has a warming effect. Right now I find myself wondering how much colder it would get in the city if no one plowed or cleared the snow. If the snow just fell and lay there, how much better would it radiate on a clear night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Interesting the massive differences between our locations in radiational cooling set-ups despite my area being further north and with higher average elevation. I had a low of 12.1F versus your 4.8F. It was still a surprisingly cold night given the snowstorm keeping things cloudy after midnight. We're trying to make a run at another cold night this evening at 16.6/9. Got all the way down to 4.8 this morning in Bridgewater, the lowest temp I recorded during this cold snap. Just that little bit of snowcover really helped. A few more pics of the partially frozen Raritan today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Agreed it's a combination of wind direcation and snow cover. Last night it was remarkable how quickly temps plummeted w/ clear/calm conditions but w/ the extra variable of 1-2"+ of fresh snow on the ground. The city doesn't radiate, but if we had decent snow on the ground, it's basically like keeping the air refrigerated as it moved southward. The bare ground certainly has a warming effect. I do agree with Bluewave that 1994 had a colder climate, partially because of the Pinatubo eruption. There has been significant warming in the Arctic regions from 1994-2012, and that may explain why January 1994 type temperatures are harder to come by than normal, although that pattern was always an extreme anomaly. Using climate change to compare to 2004 or 2005 arctic shots, however, doesn't seem sensible. Global temperatures were high during those years, and the arctic cold was more a result of northerly flow and heavier snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Interesting the massive differences between our locations in radiational cooling set-ups despite my area being further north and with higher average elevation. I had a low of 12.1F versus your 4.8F. It was still a surprisingly cold night given the snowstorm keeping things cloudy after midnight. We're trying to make a run at another cold night this evening at 16.6/9. Higher elevation can prevent the best radiational cooling, as you may be aware. Cold air pools. We've had some incredible cold air pooling out here in the west, though of course we do have more extreme elevation differences. Even still, it can matter even with modest differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 On clear, calm nights, it will almost always be colder on the floor of a valley than on the surrounding hilltops as an inversion will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I'm estimating 20.9, as I think the NWS projections for Sunday (34/20) are too high - that would put it right at 2007 - could be above or below. If today's high at CPK is 33, then the week's average is 20.92 - not sure if the 2007 average of 20.9 is actually more or less than that, with rounding - could be a close call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Bluewave is always trying to play the climate card...global temperatures in 2004 and 2005 were actually warmer than the last two winters, yet those years were able to produce potent arctic outbreaks. 2005 was the warmest year on record for GISS, which is probably his favored source for global temperatures. I agree about wind direction but the main difference is clearly snow cover...850s during this outbreak got down to almost -23C which is similar to 2009 but I had lows around 8-9F instead of near 0F. Most of our big arctic shots had at least modest snow over. December 2010 was an exception and we also bottomed out in the low teens here with highs around 20F. It's just not possible to go sub zero in NYC without snow on the ground. Making this a climate issue is absurd, in my opinion, when you l You just need to face the fact that the temperatures have been steadily warming here and the severity of the Arctic outbreaks during the winter has been moderating. NYC hasn't been able to drop below 6 degrees here since 2006 which isn't a usual occurrence for us. Even during the mild 50's ,NYC was able to drop to 0-5 degrees regularly. You will notice less cold air available in North America this month compared to earlier Arctic outbreaks. Canada has seen one of the fastest rises in winter temperatures on the planet today. If Canada is having trouble getting really cold by there historical winter standards, how can you not expect it to impact our low temperature potential? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38520-when-will-nyc-see-the-next-5-degrees-or-lower-annual-minimum-temperature/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Once to Friday , my thinking is we enter into another 5 to 7 day period close to what we just had . My guess right now is that a 7 day stretch of 5 below is on its way. The EURO looks colder , but too far too bite this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Still have snow on parts of the pavement here. Goes to show how cold it's been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 This weeks tallies so far NYC: 1/21: 32 26 -3 1/22: 27 13 -12 1/23: 20 11 -16 1/24: 22 12 -16 1/25: 24 13 -14 1/26: 27 15 -12 LGA: 1/21: 32 28 -3 1/22: 29 15 -11 1/23: 20 12 -17 1/24: 25 15 -13 1/25: 25 14 -13 1/26: 29 18 -9 JFK: 1/21: 33 26 -2 1/22: 28 14 -11 1/23: 21 12 -15 1/24: 26 13 -12 1/25: 24 14 -14 1/26: 27 14 -12 EWR: 1/21: 33 25 -2 1/22: 27 14 -10 1/23: 21 11 -16 1/24: 25 11 -14 1/25: 24 12 -14 1/26: 28 13 -11 TTN: 1/21: 32 23 -3 1/22: 25 10 -12 1/23: 19 10 -16 1/24: 25 10 -13 1/25: 22 10 -15 1/26: 28 9 -12 updated with 1/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 updated with 1/26 Today should produce around a -7 for most, and tomorrow maybe a slight negative or neutral. But then we'll torch Wed before cooling Thursday, so final departures might not be far from what they are right now. In order for this winter, DJF period to finish at least normal temp wise in NYC, February would have to be along the lines of Feb 2007, with departures of -5.5 or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Today should produce around a -7 for most, and tomorrow maybe a slight negative or neutral. But then we'll torch Wed before cooling Thursday, so final departures might not be far from what they are right now. In order for this winter, DJF period to finish at least normal temp wise in NYC, February would have to be along the lines of Feb 2007, with departures of -5.5 or greater. Yeah i think even greater than that after a +4 Dec and +3.5 Jan. Tue - Thu should run above with wed/thu much above normal. I like our chances the first half of Feb specifically between 2/2 and 2/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Close call for NYC today, they're a 31F now. We'll see if they can stay 32F for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Close call for NYC today, they're a 31F now. We'll see if they can stay 32F for the high. Fail, 33F. Streak ends at 6 consecutive sub freezing days, cannot make a full week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Sharp view of the ice on the Great South bay from the MODIS pass today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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