COLD OBS / Forecast

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

But evaporation and compaction will take care of that. Got a little over an inch of snow Monday and was basically gone the next day.

Strange I had a solid inch left before today. Granted it evaporated down from 3 inches to 1 in 5 days but all grassy surfaces were still covered. Regardless it will all be gone Tuesday. The one thing that will not melt  is ice on the water, with another shot of cold after the semi torch we could be looking at the best ice cover sine 2004 when deer ran across the Great South Bay!!

[sussexcountyobs]

+7.0

[tim]

Strange I had a solid inch left before today. Granted it evaporated down from 3 inches to 1 in 5 days but all grassy surfaces were still covered. Regardless it will all be gone Tuesday. The one thing that will not melt  is ice on the water, with another shot of cold after the semi torch we could be looking at the best ice cover sine 2004 when deer ran across the Great South Bay!!

...was very surprised how quickly the ponds and even the creeks

of moriches bay froze over..pond hockey is on..get it while you can..

..its done by mon/tues..

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

...was very surprised how quickly the ponds and even the creeks

of moriches bay froze over..pond hockey is on..get it while you can..

..its done by mon/tues..

The ice is solid and can handle a brief torch. If we can get another week long period of similar temps in the beginning of feb then you can really get out on the ice.

[uncle W]

15 now...Final totals were 1.0" of snow from 0.05" of water...

[TWCCraig]

14.9 after a low of 13.5

[Guest Pamela]

Monthly Departure From Normal / Temperature

January 2013

Through January 25th

 

Newark: +3.6

JFK: +2.7

LaGuardia: +2.6

Islip: +2.6

Bridgeport: +2.6

NYC Central Park: +2.5

[bluewave]

It is correct that this week is nowhere near historic, it is that this has been so infrequent the last ten years which gets everyone's attention.

 

NYC wasn't even able to drop below 10 degrees. The average temp this week will be similar to 2007 and 2009, but the low will be higher.

 

2013...11

2009...6

2007...8

 

And the warmer seasonal lows since 2006 all above 5 degrees and several of 10 or higher.

 

2013...11

2012...13

2011...6

2010..13

2009...6

2008..10

2007...8

2006...15

 

[EasternLI]

Sorry I didn't put this up earlier, but I was busy at work. This is Southampton looking north at peconic bay. Taken on thurs. morning. Haven't seen this in quite some time. Wish I had taken one yesterday, pretty much take what you see and double it. Just to give a little illustration of the cold. Today it probably looks even more impressive

[Guest Pamela]

Minimum Temperature 32 F or Below
Number of Days
Since October 1, 2012

Islip: 47
Bridgeport: 45
Newark: 37
Kennedy: 30
NYC Central Park: 25
LaGuardia: 18     

[TWCCraig]

Great South Bay almost completely frozen over. Image credit: Fire Island Pines Webcam: http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/TPPOne/1/show.html

 

 

Today's MODIS should be interesting.

[Guest Pamela]

That's quite a picture...and it only took roughly 5 days.

[tim]

nice shot..

Great South Bay almost completely frozen over. Image credit: Fire Island Pines Webcam: http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/TPPOne/1/show.html

 

 

Today's MODIS should be interesting.

[Isotherm]

The ice will not be gone in two days; it's much more resilient than snow cover. We'll likely have frozen bays/ponds etc into the middle part of February given the pattern going forward. It's been a long time since we had a stretch this cold.

 

Once temperatures become favorable, it doesn't take long to ice up. The Arctic Ocean usually ices over very rapidly within a few weeks in late Sept-mid Oct.

[uncle W]

Minimum Temperature 32 F or Below

Number of Days

Since October 1, 2012

Islip: 47

Bridgeport: 45

Newark: 37

Kennedy: 30

NYC Central Park: 25

LaGuardia: 18     

last year set the record for the lowest amount of 32 or lower days in Central Park...

 

minimum/maximum days 32 degrees or below...

decade...............total.min..ave..max..ave.

1930-31-1939-40.'.799.....80......208...21

1940-41-1949-50.'.845.....85......197...20

1950-51-1959-60.'.755.....76......153...15

1960-61-1969-70.'.806.....81......218...22

1970-71-1979-80.'.756.....76......218...22

1980-81-1989-90.'.711.....71......197...20

1990-91-1999-00.'.594.....59......162...16

2000-01-2009-10.'.716.....72......164...16

1930-31-2009-10.'.748.....75......190...19

2010-11-2011-12.'.121.....61........28...14

The 1990's has the least amount of min. days 32 or lower.

The 1940's has the most.

The 1960's and 70's have the most max. days 32 or lower.

The 1950's have the least amount of max days 32 or lower.

Seasons with the  least amount of min days 32 degrees or lower.

min days.

37 2011-12

47 2001-02

49 1997-98

50 1998-99

53 1982-83

54 1990-91

59 1952-53

59 1972-73

60 1957-58

60 1994-95

67 2005-06

63 2006-07

64 2007-08

86 2008-09

63 2009-10

84 2010-11

 

[SACRUS]

This weeks tallies so far

 

 

NYC:

 

1/21:      32 26  -3     
1/22:      27 13 -12  
1/23:      20 11 -16     
1/24:      22 12 -16
1/25:      24 13 -14

1/26:      26 15 -12 (so far)

 

LGA:

 

 

1/21:      32 28  -3     
1/22:      29 15 -11  
1/23:      20 12 -17     
1/24:      25 15 -13
1/25:      25 14 -13

1/26:      23 18 -12 (so far)

 

JFK:

 

 

1/21:      33 26  -2     
1/22:      28 14 -11  
1/23:      21 12 -15     
1/24:      26 13 -12
1/25:      24 14 -14

1/26:      26 15 -12

 

EWR:

1/21:      33 25 -2    
1/22:      27 14 -10  
1/23:      21 11 -16    
1/24:      25 11 -14
1/25:      24 12 -14

 

 

TTN:  

 

1/21:      32 23  -3    
1/22:      25 10 -12  
1/23:      19 10 -16     
1/24:      25 10 -13
1/25:      22 10 -15

[Allsnow]

Coldest week we have had in years here. Def was the best week this winter.

[Isotherm]

This weeks tallies so far

 

 

NYC:

 

1/21:      32 26  -3     

1/22:      27 13 -12  

1/23:      20 11 -16     

1/24:      22 12 -16

1/25:      24 13 -14

1/26:      26 15 -12 (so far)

 

LGA:

 

 

1/21:      32 28  -3     

1/22:      29 15 -11  

1/23:      20 12 -17     

1/24:      25 15 -13

1/25:      25 14 -13

1/26:      23 18 -12 (so far)

 

JFK:

 

 

1/21:      33 26  -2     

1/22:      28 14 -11  

1/23:      21 12 -15     

1/24:      26 13 -12

1/25:      24 14 -14

1/26:      26 15 -12

 

EWR:

1/21:      33 25 -2    

1/22:      27 14 -10  

1/23:      21 11 -16    

1/24:      25 11 -14

1/25:      24 12 -14

 

 

TTN:  

 

1/21:      32 23  -3    

1/22:      25 10 -12  

1/23:      19 10 -16     

1/24:      25 10 -13

1/25:      22 10 -15

 

 

What's even more amazing is after 5+ days of double digit negatives, we'll still probably be > +1 on the month. But compared to where many of us were 10 days ago, the transition from +6s, +7s, and +8s down to just slightly above normal is a phenomenal reversal. It's unfortunate that the cold didn't come earlier, and January will likely finish warmer than normal throughout the Northeast.

[nzucker]

What's even more amazing is after 5+ days of double digit negatives, we'll still probably be > +1 on the month. But compared to where many of us were 10 days ago, the transition from +6s, +7s, and +8s down to just slightly above normal is a phenomenal reversal. It's unfortunate that the cold didn't come earlier, and January will likely finish warmer than normal throughout the Northeast.

 

The real problem is that another torch comes in right on the heels of this cold pattern with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. No sustained cold like we had in Jan/Feb 2003, Jan 2004, or Jan 2005. Just a quick shot of arctic air followed by more ridging, the result of a poor Pacific pattern and the failure of the -NAO to lock in. The 12z GFS shows basically the same thing for February: very cold air followed by cutters. Definitely been a frustrating winter. 

[PB GFI]

The real problem is that another torch comes in right on the heels of this cold pattern with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. No sustained cold like we had in Jan/Feb 2003, Jan 2004, or Jan 2005. Just a quick shot of arctic air followed by more ridging, the result of a poor Pacific pattern and the failure of the -NAO to lock in. The 12z GFS shows basically the same thing for February: very cold air followed by cutters. Definitely been a frustrating winter. 

Its 2 days of above normal in between. A 7 day. And 5 day period of cold.

2 warm days over 2 weeks isnt the problem. Its just dry when cold. The. Pac is fine. Ridge in alaska. Neg epo. The prob is no nao. Flow too fast. Our systems bomb out once well off the playin field. Phase 8 of the mjo is a dry phase. So gona hav to wait at least another week before the southern jet gets involved

[bluewave]

The big story with this cold wave was how much less cold air was available here under a similar

500 mb pattern to January  2004 and 1994. A very strong block north of Alaska like we saw this

week used to be associated with NYC lows getting down close to 0.

 

This week

 

 

January 2004

 

 

January 1994

 

[Isotherm]

Chris, there was also snow cover in mid/late Jan of 1994 and 2004, which made it easier to get down to those extreme lows. This winter, most of the Northeast outside of the 2K+ areas have rather sparse snow cover -- not conducive to maintaining the very bitter air from SE Canada.

[Isotherm]

Its 2 days of above normal in between. A 7 day. And 5 day period of cold.

2 warm days over 2 weeks isnt the problem. Its just dry when cold. The. Pac is fine. Ridge in alaska. Neg epo. The prob is no nao. Flow too fast. Our systems bomb out once well off the playin field. Phase 8 of the mjo is a dry phase. So gona hav to wait at least another week before the southern jet gets involved

 

 

This winter has been another interesting learning experience. We had a -NAO/AO for the first half of winter w/ plenty of storminess, but no cold. The past couple weeks have featured a favorable Pacific, producing the cold, but now the lack of -NAO/AO ruins our storm chances. Additionally, the lack of STJ hurts us and is a major reason why El Nino winters rule from SNE southward. No juicy Miller A's running into the cold dome over the Northeast.

 

Our biggest problem going forward continues to be the lack of -NAO blocking. Early winter we had a -NAO but it wasn't strong enough to drive the cold down here. Now we simply don't have any blocking - just positive heights progged in the Arctic/Atlantic.

 

The only thing that prevents me from being completely hopeless looking forward is the continued amplified MJO signal, propagating thru phases 8-1-2 which typically activates a southern stream. We don't have a raging Nina here so one would think it shouldn't be too difficult to get a Miller A w/ phase 1 MJO. Another problem is the cold shots will be rather transient without an NAO block to hold the cold in place, so when/IF we get southern stream moisture, it may end up being rain.

[bluewave]

Chris, there was also snow cover in mid/late Jan of 1994 and 2004, which made it easier to get down to those extreme lows. This winter, most of the Northeast outside of the 2K+ areas have rather sparse snow cover -- not conducive to maintaining the very bitter air from SE Canada.

 

The snow cover helps, but the Arctic outbreak of January 2004 came after a mild a snowless period like we saw this January.

We had a very mild pattern from around the solstice up until the point of the bitter cold arriving in January 2004.

The snow finally arrived after the record cold established itself.

 

 

[TWCCraig]

Just took a ride over the Robert Moses causeway. Most of the bay is frozen, some parts still all water. The parts that are all frozen look the Arctic. Ill post pics later.

[Isotherm]

The snow cover helps, but the Arctic outbreak of January 2004 came after a mild a snowless period like we saw this January.

We had a very mild pattern from around the solstice up until the point of the bitter cold arriving in January 2004.

The snow finally arrived after the record cold established itself.

 

A.gif

 

B.gif

 

 

Would also be interested to see what high pressure orientation was in those years. In this past week, NYC held onto NWLY winds which prevents the major cold from being realized. We saw impressive cold in New England, but Central Park really needs a due north wind to funnel the arctic air down the Hudson.

[Isotherm]

Here's the 24th of January 2004. Notice in the top right image, isobars are orientated in a manner which likely produced due northerly winds in NYC, a much more favorable direction for extreme cold. So I don't think it was a matter of there not being arctic air this week, it's the poor high pressure positioning that ruined NYC's single digit chances.

 

 

[forkyfork]

there's also the fact that our climate warmed

[Isotherm]

there's also the fact that our climate warmed

 

 

Yeah we're basically in an entirely different climate zone compared to 2004. I'm surprised we can still get below freezing.

[bluewave]

Would also be interested to see what high pressure orientation was in those years. In this past week, NYC held onto NWLY winds which prevents the major cold from being realized. We saw impressive cold in New England, but Central Park really needs a due north wind to funnel the arctic air down the Hudson.

 

I agree that a high building down from north of the lakes would have resulted in a more northerly flow this week with  a

better chance at dropping below 10. We were able to get the winds right in January 2011 when the temperature

dropped down to 6 degrees in NYC on the 24th. But that was still warmer than a high in a similar position

in 2004 and the end of January 1994 with NYC reaching 1 and 0. I guess the fewer opportunities for cold makes

it harder to have a good Arctic high to line up with the strong Arctic outbreaks. We also haven't had any good opportunities

to get to 0 on strong WNW winds like during January 1994 and 1985 with super cold  850's.