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COLD OBS / Forecast


NorEaster27

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it's a cold week but far from the coldest weeks ever...

I looked at over 25 cold spells for at least one week in NYC since 1876...Hoping my math and dates are correct I came up with this top 15...
ave temp...month/day/year...
02.5......12/29/1917-1/4/1918
08.8......2/8-14/1899
10.9......2/3-9/1895
12.2......1/6-12/1968
12.3......1/11-17/1893

12.6......12/28/1880-1/3/1881
12.7......2/12-18/1979
13.5......2/4-10/1934
13.5......1/22-28/1888
13.6......1/9-15/1886

13.6......1/10-16/1912
13.9......1/15-21/1994
14.1......2/1-7/1886
14.6......1/15-21/1935
14.6......1/23-29/1936
......................
Some recent years...
15.5......1/20-26/1961
15.9......1/12-18/1977
16.1......1/13-19/1957
16.7......2/13-19/1958
17.0......1/18-24/2005
the late December early January cold spell in 1917-18 is by far the coldest week in recorded NYC weather history...It averaged 2.5 degrees...The February 1899 cold spell comes in second with 8.8 degrees...1968 and 1979 made the top ten and 1994 the top 15...Temperatures like this for a week cause many problems...Frozen pipes and dead battery weather

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No problem. January 2005 doesn't really stand out in peoples minds after January 2004 was so cold around here.

04 - just stuck out because it was really a brutal 3 week period , with a small bump in the middle . and that was my 1st yr in Laurel Hollow .

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it's only one cold week so far...can this year make this top coldest 30 day periods?...Five of the last ten years made the list...

coldest 30 day periods... since 1917.
1917-18 19.0
1933-34 19.6
1935-36 20.4
1947-48 21.5
1976-77 21.9
1980-81 22.2
1919-20 22.4
2003-04 22.5
1993-94 23.5
1944-45 23.8
1969-70 24.0
1970-71 24.2
1934-35 24.3
1960-61 24.6
1939-40 24.9
1967-68 25.1
1981-82 25.2
1989-90 25.3
2006-07 25.8
1962-63 25.9
2002-03 25.9
1978-79 26.0
1983-84 26.1
1977-78 26.2
1999-00 26.2
1975-76 27.1
1984-85 27.5
1955-56 27.6
1995-96 27.7
1956-57 27.8
2008-09 27.9
1964-65 28.0
1957-58 28.1
2010-11 28.1

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it's a cold week but far from the coldest weeks ever...

I looked at over 25 cold spells for at least one week in NYC since 1876...Hoping my math and dates are correct I came up with this top 15...

ave temp...month/day/year...

02.5......12/29/1917-1/4/1918

08.8......2/8-14/1899

10.9......2/3-9/1895

12.2......1/6-12/1968

12.3......1/11-17/1893

12.6......12/28/1880-1/3/1881

12.7......2/12-18/1979

13.5......2/4-10/1934

13.5......1/22-28/1888

13.6......1/9-15/1886

13.6......1/10-16/1912

13.9......1/15-21/1994

14.1......2/1-7/1886

14.6......1/15-21/1935

14.6......1/23-29/1936

......................

Some recent years...

15.5......1/20-26/1961

15.9......1/12-18/1977

16.1......1/13-19/1957

16.7......2/13-19/1958

17.0......1/18-24/2005

the late December early January cold spell in 1917-18 is by far the coldest week in recorded NYC weather history...It averaged 2.5 degrees...The February 1899 cold spell comes in second with 8.8 degrees...1968 and 1979 made the top ten and 1994 the top 15...Temperatures like this for a week cause many problems...Frozen pipes and dead battery weather

Totaling up the period starting Monday - ending with this Sun , if we can avg 12 below for that 7 day period , would give us an avergae close to 20 degrees - M - 5 T - 10 W -17 TH - 16 FR -15 SAT - 10 SUN -5 using 38 and 27 as splits , gets me to 32.5 , so those departures mean out close to 22 , so not top 15 , but in 137 years , Can that get into the top 25 ?

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04 - just stuck out because it was really a brutal 3 week period , with a small bump in the middle . and that was my 1st yr in Laurel Hollow .

 

Today we'll get the fourth -10 or lower temperature departure  in a row that you were mentioning last week

which has been so rare recently during winter months here. We got to 5 days in a row in February 2007

but have been having trouble getting past three since then. I guess sooner or later were were bound to

get a cold wave that exceeded the model forecasts from a week out.

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Today we'll get the fourth -10 or lower temperature departure  in a row that you were mentioning last week

which has been so rare recently during winter months here. We got to 5 days in a row in February 2007

but have been having trouble getting past three since then. I guess sooner or later were were bound to

get a cold wave that exceeded the model forecasts from a week out.

Thanks bro , Yeh pretty impressive , zero snow cover . Theres another refiring of the trough starting next Fri , but if that ones dry too , guys here prob not gona care , cant say I blame em .
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Just curious how you (or someone) arrived at that. Is that a projection based on expected temps through Saturday or Sunday and is it based on some aggregate temperature deviation or some other measure? Been wondering how this cold snap rates, historically, and how cold snaps are even ranked. Any info would be appreciated...

Lonnie Quinn said it on Ch 2. I don't know how he arrived at it.

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This week won't turn out to be colder than during January 2005, but will be among the coldest since then.

 

 

Coldest weeks in NYC since 2003:

 

1/18/-1/24......2005....17.1

1/10-1/16......2004.....17.4

1/18-1/24.......2003....18.7

1/23-1/29.......2004....18.9

2/4-2/10.........2007....20.9

1/15-1/21.......2009....21.2

 

Looks like this one week cold snap will probably be the coldest since 2004, which is decent, but I assume it's maybe top 25-30 or so, as it's well behind #15 in uncle W's list.

 

Allsnow - gotta agree with the others that Lonnie Quinn is a moron, lol.  Unless he's calculating "coldest" in some other way.  One would think average temperature over a given timeframe is the best measure, but maybe they're just looking at coldest high temps for a stretch, or something, since it seems like the low temps are more affected by the UHI than the "low" high temps per day (based on my gut instinct, not any data). 

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Looks like this one week cold snap will probably be the coldest since 2004, which is decent, but I assume it's maybe top 25-30 or so, as it's well behind #15 in uncle W's list.

 

Allsnow - gotta agree with the others that Lonnie Quinn is a moron, lol.  Unless he's calculating "coldest" in some other way.  One would think average temperature over a given timeframe is the best measure, but maybe they're just looking at coldest high temps for a stretch, or something, since it seems like the low temps are more affected by the UHI than the "low" high temps per day (based on my gut instinct, not any data). 

 

It looks like we may come in at around 21.4 from Monday to Sunday, but we'll check it when we get the final numbers.

That would be close to the coldest weeks in 2007 and 2009.

 

2/4-2/10.........2007....20.9

1/15-1/21.......2009....21.2

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It looks like we may come in at around 21.4 from Monday to Sunday, but we'll check it when we get the final numbers.

That would be close to the coldest weeks in 2007 and 2009.

 

2/4-2/10.........2007....20.9

1/15-1/21.......2009....21.2

I'm estimating 20.9, as I think the NWS projections for Sunday (34/20) are too high - that would put it right at 2007 - could be above or below. 

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It looks like we may come in at around 21.4 from Monday to Sunday, but we'll check it when we get the final numbers.

That would be close to the coldest weeks in 2007 and 2009.

 

2/4-2/10.........2007....20.9

1/15-1/21.......2009....21.2

it would take a lot of work but I'd like to see what the coldest week is for each year...last year from 1/15-21 the average was 30.6...2001-02 had a 29.8 week 12/27-1/2...

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Lows will be sub guidance tonight in areas that received 1"+ of fresh snow. Widespread single digits in those areas already, impressive. This weekend looks plenty cold to hold the snow cover.

But evaporation and compaction will take care of that. Got a little over an inch of snow Monday and was basically gone the next day.

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