SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So is any model still showing norlun enhancement on land, or are we most likely SOL with that? The synoptic stuff under LI appears to be headed more East than North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I definitely do. Certain things like over coming the dry air on the last system and how bad those nw winds aloft are to get snow in here when we are dealing with a cape scraper. I always think to myself, "damn idiot, we learned this last year how did you forget?" Matter of actually remembering the material next year rather than forgetting. Hopefully Fruday is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This thread is hilarious. Box update 10pm Highlight the lull we commented on a while back and the rebuilding seen on the RAP: 10 PM update... broad scale snowfall has gradually shifted to a more narrow and heavier band of snow focused along a band of moderate low-middle level fgen from southern Li to Cape Cod. This may mean a break for much of the area for this point. The focus now is on the energy Transfer from this band of fgen to the convergent norlun trough which is beginning to establish itself just offshore per latest pressure falls. As this Transfer occurs...suspect the band to the S will gradually lift somewhat to the north with time weakening and falling mostly within the I-495 corridor. The band has already produced some localized areas of 3+ inches of snow...so still could be a good bit of snow for the aforementioned locations. Regional infrared satellite already also showing the beginning signs of this Transfer as cloud tops are currently cooling north of the area of heaviest banding. Mesoscale models are still not as agreeable as one would like for an already ongoing event. However...one note they are in fair agreement on is the northward shift mentioned in the previous paragraph. Rap especially is showing the filling band in CT and northern Rhode Island beginning to take over and shift north gradually through about the 09z timeframe once the norlun fully takes over. Have adjusted probability of precipitation/weather closer to this latest thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I really don't know what to think lol. I'm glad I worked until now, about .5" maybe? Ill measure when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hopefully Fruday is for real. It's a much more reliable setup for an actual storm for us as you know. I'm leaning bullish (without emotions believe it or not). Such a cold antecedent airmass, tough to think we go over to a mix for a significant time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So is any model still showing norlun enhancement on land, or are we most likely SOL with that? The synoptic stuff under LI appears to be headed more East than North. Seems if the gyx people are still with it. Meteorology over modelogy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This thread is hilarious. Box update 10pm Highlight the lull we commented on a while back and the rebuilding seen on the RAP: 10 PM update... broad scale snowfall has gradually shifted to a more narrow and heavier band of snow focused along a band of moderate low-middle level fgen from southern Li to Cape Cod. This may mean a break for much of the area for this point. The focus now is on the energy Transfer from this band of fgen to the convergent norlun trough which is beginning to establish itself just offshore per latest pressure falls. As this Transfer occurs...suspect the band to the S will gradually lift somewhat to the north with time weakening and falling mostly within the I-495 corridor. The band has already produced some localized areas of 3+ inches of snow...so still could be a good bit of snow for the aforementioned locations. Regional infrared satellite already also showing the beginning signs of this Transfer as cloud tops are currently cooling north of the area of heaviest banding. Mesoscale models are still not as agreeable as one would like for an already ongoing event. However...one note they are in fair agreement on is the northward shift mentioned in the previous paragraph. Rap especially is showing the filling band in CT and northern Rhode Island beginning to take over and shift north gradually through about the 09z timeframe once the norlun fully takes over. Have adjusted probability of precipitation/weather closer to this latest thinking Actually a potential for snow to pick up again for a period. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Have no idea what BOX is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That's the norlun over south weymouth j/k but wouldn't that be funny if it ended up setting shop somewhere completely unmodeled like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Didn't cut back as much as I expected, still somewhat bullish on north shore and south shore outside of Cape Cod: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That's the norlun over south weymouth j/k but wouldn't that be funny if it ended up setting shop somewhere completely unmodeled like that? Snow has picked up really well here actually... steadiest of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 thats a nice band south of boston!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That's the norlun over south weymouth j/k but wouldn't that be funny if it ended up setting shop somewhere completely unmodeled like that? They tend to do that quite often, usually its a bit north of where they are modeled but there's been cases of them going the other way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 looks like those squalls are about 3 miles south of scooters fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Didn't cut back as much as I expected, still somewhat bullish on north shore and south shore outside of Cape Cod: StormTotalSnowFcst (1).png Unless 100 Zambonis fall out of the sky, I have no idea how I'm going to see 6" of snow. I really, really hope they're right though. The snow has stopped totally and the moon is out along with the stars. And I'm on the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So is any model still showing norlun enhancement on land, or are we most likely SOL with that? The synoptic stuff under LI appears to be headed more East than North. yes i was very curious when wxniss posted that the real stuff was in PA and bob said "yes we all realize that" ? i was thinking what are they thinking that is not gonna hit wxniss or bos? we are not SOL with noruln , but it's just not a high percentage shot. If i was in portsmouth,nh i would expect 3-6 inches tonite and possibly higher but outside of 10 miles either side of portsmouth (maybe 20 to the NE) i wouldn't expect really anything but worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Congrats bro, nice to see you jackpot for once. If I liked snow I'd probably be happy... The radar returns over the WST area now are not producing anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 yes i was very curious when wxniss posted that the real stuff was in PA and bob said "yes we all realize that" ? i was thinking what are they thinking that is not gonna hit wxniss or bos? we are not SOL with noruln , but it's just not a high percentage shot. If i was in portsmouth,nh i would expect 3-6 inches tonite and possibly higher but outside of 10 miles either side of portsmouth (maybe 20 to the NE) i wouldn't expect really anything but worth watching Maybe still happens but it's going to be a real miracle. We got a push of dryer air for sure. I've got broken clouds right now with a bright moon. No snow. The rush of dry air is rocketing over the cape too, the echoes are vanishing per the radar. There's one last attempted push south of RI...but.... I posted the photo of the moon up thread a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 They tend to do that quite often, usually its a bit north of where they are modeled but there's been cases of them going the other way too. Good point, This was not progged to develop until 00-06z up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs has no inverted trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs has no inverted trof We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Oh, Jerry, You have melted down before, too Moi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Cold tops booming over us north of the qpf shield. Hoping this gives us a burst soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs has no inverted trof NCEP models just pulled the equivalent of Sanchez running into his linemans as*( and fumbling. We toss That made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Snow has picked up really well here actually... steadiest of the night Yup, ditto in Randolph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Cold tops booming over us north of the qpf shield. Hoping this gives us a burst soon. It shows up quite well on enhanced infrared satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NCEP models just pulled the equivalent of Sanchez running into his linemans as*( and fumbling. Euro was way too wet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Cold tops booming over us north of the qpf shield. Hoping this gives us a burst soon. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 4" now. Has tapered off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro was way too wet as well. RGEM/GGEM were probably best again but I was only paying half attention, didn't have much faith in this when the Euro/GGEM seemed so meh. This dry push that ripped across the south coast makes me want to puke. I had the lowest of expectations when essentially every outlet had me getting a lot of snow and even I'm bummed For a decent part of the Cape this storm is about the same or even less than the one the other day. Bigger for me...I'm stuck at 1.6" with heavy bright moonage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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