Need Advice from a Met on a post I am about to make on Facebook. (Time sensitive)

[Tullioz]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask this question or not, but here goes. Over the past 36 hours this region has seen extensive flooding from a system which brought a general 5" of rain to most areas. The rivers and streams are still running high, and the GFS has been showing an alarming amount of rainfall for this area over the next 36 to 48 hours beginning tomorrow morning. I even noticed the forecast on Wunderground is calling for 7" of rain tomorrow night here in Davao City. I assume this is just based on the GFS  model output, but it does grab ones attention. For this past system the GFS only showed 2 to 4 inches leading up to the event. The last several runs have been showing the entire region receiving 5+" with many isolated areas getting 10+" for tomorrow and tomorrow night. If these amounts were to verify we are looking at yet another disaster in the making. There was no warning for the system this weekend, and while there is the mention of potential mudslides and flash flooding for tomorrow, the wording in media outlets  is not very strong and PAGASA for some unknown reason only puts out advisories once a day. The next one will be 11am tomorrow. This will be too little too late for this upcoming system.

 

So below is the post I intend to make on one of the most viewed news pages here on FB before going to sleep in about an hour. I want to wait up for the 12z GFS before pulling the trigger. I need to know if this sounds appropriate. I have seen too much death and destruction in recent weeks which could have been avoided if officials here would use stronger wording and give more advanced notice of life threatening events. Alerts for Typhoon Pablo did not get raised until we were less than 24 hours away from landfall. I saw it coming a week away. 

 

My intended post after the 12z run if it looks similar. 

 

 

"I think people should pay very close attention to the rivers and streams tomorrow and tomorrow night. Actually I am quite surprised that more is not being mentioned by PAGASA about the potential for very serious flooding in Davao Oriental, Compestela Valley, and Davao Del Sur including Davao City over the next 36 to 48 hours. I have been looking at the weather forecast models over the past couple of days and the system that will affect the area beginning tomorrow looks to bring excessive amounts of rain. If the model is correct most areas will see 5+ inches in a short period of time and some isolated locations may receive 10+ inches. 

 

With rivers and streams already swollen from past rain and the lack of vegetation in the areas affected by typhoon Pablo this looks to be a disaster in the making as if the past 48 hours have not been bad enough already. Not trying to cause panic as the model could be wrong, but just alerting people to the potential. Everyone should pay very close attention to the rivers and streams tomorrow as very heavy rain looks to be certain. If you live in a low lying area near rivers or streams you may want to make preparations now and be ready to move to higher ground if necessary. 

 

Below is a screen shot of the forecast model from earlier this evening. I circled Mindanao and placed a dot to represent Davao City. Everyone be alert and try to stay safe.