CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm thinking of tickling down those Wed/Thu numbers after looking at the GFS. Damn that's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah it was funny how different the GFS/NAM 2M temps were from 12z on Wednesday. Looks like the GFS ticked even colder. I split the difference and went 15 at BDL but if the GFS is right we'll struggle out of the single digits. Yeah gfs isn't getting much higher than about 6 or 7 here for a high if its right. Nam was more like 12 or 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah gfs isn't getting much higher than about 6 or 7 here for a high if its right. Nam was more like 12 or 13 Thinking about going 4/13 for Wednesday and -4/18 on Thursday based on the GFS. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks to me like hills are around 4-5 for the high temp on Wednesday. Even BDL and BOS may stay under 10.. 2004 esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Those high temps on Wednesday may need to be adjusted down if gfs is correct Better start closing the CT schools now to be on the safe side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks to me like hills are around 4-5 for the high temp on Wednesday. Even BDL and BOS may stay under 10.. 2004 esqueWon't be as cold or as long as 2004. I got to -18.6F and had double digit negs three days in a rowP n c has me getting to -6F Weds night. Cold enough You can make "snow" with a cup of hot water at -5, but colder is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks to me like hills are around 4-5 for the high temp on Wednesday. Even BDL and BOS may stay under 10.. 2004 esque I think it will be hard to stay under 10 at BDL... I'm thinking 13 or 14 is pretty likely though. Cold stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think it will be hard to stay under 10 at BDL... I'm thinking 13 or 14 is pretty likely though. Cold stuff. Yeah that is cold..probably similar here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah that is cold..probably similar here too. 492 holy heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah that is cold..probably similar here too. Love seeing all the MOS numbers on TV though lol. 20/21/22... that aint happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Love seeing all the MOS numbers on TV though lol. 20/21/22... that aint happening. Gone are the days of using meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Gone are the days of using meteorology. 48-72 hours out MOS seems to do poorly with these really cold setups yet before big heat it does fine. I wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 48-72 hours out MOS seems to do poorly with these really cold setups yet before big heat it does fine. I wonder why? Well MOS includes some sort of bias wrt the current weather I think? In other words, I think it may temper down cold spells if the weather previously was mild...but I may be totally offbase. I probably should know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Well MOS includes some sort of bias wrt the current weather I think? In other words, I think it may temper down cold spells if the weather previously was mild...but I may be totally offbase. I probably should know this. I feel like when we warm up and throw +22 850s around we wind up seeing the GFS MOS throw around 101s and 102s like candy. Yet following a strong cold advection day... 2M temps are like 15F lower than MOS and more often than not the 2M temps are more accurate. I get the skewed by climo but it seems to handle record warmth and record cold differently. I could be wrong here though... just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I feel like when we warm up and throw +22 850s around we wind up seeing the GFS MOS throw around 101s and 102s like candy. Yet following a strong cold advection day... 2M temps are like 15F lower than MOS and more often than not the 2M temps are more accurate. I get the skewed by climo but it seems to handle record warmth and record cold differently. I could be wrong here though... just an observation. I do know what you mean. It's sometimes one of those deals where you run with model 2m temps. Wasn't the NAM throwing obscene numbers for BDL at times this year...like 103 or something? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is probably a dumb question but could it be because more data is put into the models from the south and west causing it to predict heat better? 48-72 hours out MOS seems to do poorly with these really cold setups yet before big heat it does fine. I wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Love seeing all the MOS numbers on TV though lol. 20/21/22... that aint happening. NWS is a total joke down here...has 25/12 Wednesday and 26/20 Thursday. This is with 850s of -21C or so. They should shave 10-15F off the highs and lows, and then they would have a better idea how cold it is going to be during this outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NWS is a total joke down here...has 25/12 Wednesday and 26/20 Thursday. This is with 850s of -21C or so. They should shave 10-15F off the highs and lows, and then they would have a better idea how cold it is going to be during this outbreak. Yeah 12/25 sounds high for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah 12/25 sounds high for you guys. It's almost like they forgot we frequently see highs in the teens during a winter cold snap...Jan 2009, Jan 2005, Jan 2004, Jan 2003 all being examples. I think the spread was 15/0 here in Jan 2009 with 850s about 2C colder. Of course, there will be more cloud cover this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NWS has highs in the upper 20s for the city most of this week, maybe a tad high but I think we get into the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NWS has highs in the upper 20s for the city most of this week, maybe a tad high but I think we get into the mid 20s. Upper 20s would be a routine cold spell; this is an actual arctic outbreak (finally). I could see the city staying in the teens one-two days, or at least struggling to hit a high of 20F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I do know what you mean. It's sometimes one of those deals where you run with model 2m temps. Wasn't the NAM throwing obscene numbers for BDL at times this year...like 103 or something? LOL.It seems like the MET throws TAN a 105 once per summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 26.8 degrees...not abnormal...but considering the lack of cold air this year and last year i'm freezing my buns off right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 26.8 degrees...not abnormal...but considering the lack of cold air this year and last year i'm freezing my buns off right now...That's nothing compared to a 4am LSC fire alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 10F at BOS Wed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 10F at BOS Wed ? Euro is very, very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 10F at BOS Wed ?Think 9 at BDL and BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Think 9 at BDL and BOS I actually think Wednesday may be a touch warmer than I thought last night but Thursday may be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 That's nothing compared to a 4am LSC fire alarm. A buddy of mine has a house in Island Pond that sees -30F now and then... I would imagine LSC at 4AM can be rather nippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Sort of the related to the storm thread too but the euro has the Friday storm occurring in the mid teens here. Cold system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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