CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think you're a little warm with 850s of -22C and snow cover, but we'll see... With -22 possibly... but it's also possible we're like -19/-20 and it's unclear if we have snow cover. Going -15 on a daytime high in this climate regime is pretty ballsy for a 5 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Models seem to slowly bring some of the cold further south, but his numbers are fine for now. Bunch of weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 With -22 possibly... but it's also possible we're like -19/-20 and it's unclear if we have snow cover. Going -15 on a daytime high in this climate regime is pretty ballsy for a 5 day forecast. It definitely is... and it sort of sucks that we've hit a climate point where I almost expect this to not be *quite* as cold as models are showing, but its still going to be pretty d@mn cold. I think the state of the climate over the past two years, will almost make this all that much more impressive if we can string together a few negative double digit departures. The atmosphere can fart out double digit positive departures like it is it's job these days, but more than 1 double digit negative departure days is like a modern record lately, lol. Either way, tongues frozen to chairlifts this week with possible -20F ambient temps (wind chill would be obscene) across the summits if we tickle near -30C H85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Models seem to slowly bring some of the cold further south, but his numbers are fine for now. Bunch of weenies. If we can actually pull off like 3 days with 850s below -20 that will be impressive. There also won't be a super-stout subsidence inversion to force give us 0 mixing either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Arctic hounds coming in with wind and snow squalls... STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE WILL MOVE ACROSSTHE AREA SUNDAY AND WINDS THIS STRONG MAY DOWN TREES AND CAUSE POWEROUTAGES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANDPRODUCE SNOW SQUALLS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND UP TO 3 INCHESOF SNOW. THIS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. COLDER AIRWILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SNOW ON ROADWAYSMAY BECOME ICY AND COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...DIFFICULTTRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ZEROTO 10 ABOVE BY MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Had a -26 here one morning during that stretch. Coldest reading in recent years. I'm not recalling the 2004 outbreak though... During that three day stretch, I had -1/18, -9/18, -10/18 and that's right along Long Island Sound. Most intense cold since Jan 19-21, 1994 in my opinion. 2004 started off warm, but after the first week, it got cold and just stayed cold. Nothing crazy, but very consistently cold and below normal especially during the day. Still like '05 over '04 even though it didn't really get cold until the last 10 days of the month, but the cold was more intense (around zero on many nights once it finally did get cold) and there was a couple of feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 lOl kev best start to a thread ever. What you will find is boys crying for their Mommas in NNE, Skiing the top of Mt Mansfield will not be fun, been there done that, if there is no wind its fine, sitting on a chair is out for sure. Gondola days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 During that three day stretch, I had -1/18, -9/18, -10/18 and that's right along Long Island Sound. Most intense cold since Jan 19-21, 1994 in my opinion. 2004 started off warm, but after the first week, it got cold and just stayed cold. Nothing crazy, but very consistently cold and below normal especially during the day. Still like '05 over '04 even though it didn't really get cold until the last 10 days of the month, but the cold was more intense (around zero on many nights once it finally did get cold) and there was a couple of feet of snow. 2004 stands alone up here....coldest 3 day average temp on record at ORH. The Jan 14-16, 2004 outbreak was just epic. Only thing that it didn't achive was the elusive 0F high temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 2004 stands alone up here....coldest 3 day average temp on record at ORH. The Jan 14-16, 2004 outbreak was just epic. Only thing that it didn't achive was the elusive 0F high temp. A low pressure steam line broke here outside a high velocity fresh air intake that week, made 10 inches of snow in the intake shaft. Probably the most bizarre thing I have ever seen as a facility manager, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Even though its not this coming cold shot, the ensemble support for yet another arctic blast is gaining a lot of momentum for the first week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS Mos is pretty impressive this far out up north. -27 BML thurs morning -30 SLK wed morning. I'd think those numbers will tick down a bit as we get closer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS Mos is pretty impressive this far out up north. -27 BML thurs morning -30 SLK wed morning. I'd think those numbers will tick down a bit as we get closer too.down as in lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 down as in lower? Yeah I think so. I've found extended mos is generally conservative in the long range. I think climo plays part, especially up there where they can radiate like the moon if it goes calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It will be cold no doubt, but that front I mentioned will separate the insane cold...that may stay in NNE. I would be more then willing to share it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 You can bank it there will be some -40's+ around Black River Junction or Estcourt Station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 You can bank it there will be some -40's+ around Black River Junction or Estcourt Station Coldest I ever been in is -23, -40 must be crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Coldest I ever been in is -23, -40 must be crazy I have rode in -32F in the allagash, Not without a heated face shield, Black River Junction set the record in 09 -50F up here, I can't imagine trying to function in that temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I have rode in -32F in the allagash, Not without a heated face shield, Black River Junction set the record in 09 -50F up here, I can't imagine trying to function in that temp I was on a chairlift at SR in 94 with the temp -20 with a wind gusting to 35. Absolutely brutal, manned up though and skiied all day, nobody was skiing by 11. By 2 it was very tolerable, but the first 1.5 was not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Is there any area in the northeast that is colder than Saranac Lake ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Is there any area in the northeast that is colder than Saranac Lake ? Berlin NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Models are slowly shifting cold south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Is there any area in the northeast that is colder than Saranac Lake ? I'd say SLK has the coldest mins consistently of the ASOS stations. Sometimes HIE, BML, HUL, 40B, or FVE will beat them out. Of course there's MWN too, but I don't count them since they're up over 6kft. I think the coldest place with obs right now is the Big Black River station in northern Maine. Like dryslot mentioned, they hit -50F a couple years back. I'm not sure if they were even around for the 2004 cold shot or prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 How many years has it been, BTV IMPRESSIVE H5 HEIGHT/6-HR PRESSURE FALLS ANDCORRESPONDING STRONG ISALLOBARIC FLOW LEADS TO INCREASEDCONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING GUSTS INTO THE 55 TO 65 MPHRANGE...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE STEEPENING POST-FRONTALLOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO200 J/KG AS ROBUST UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 A low pressure steam line broke here outside a high velocity fresh air intake that week, made 10 inches of snow in the intake shaft. Probably the most bizarre thing I have ever seen as a facility manager, Slant sticker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Slant sticker! Shoveling 10 inches of snow 4 feet inside of an air handling unit inside the building, surreal. Nobody had ever seen it. Perfect chain of calamities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Where it belongs. I shall take at least one lap around the cul-de-sac on which I live on Wednesday in shorts and a t-shirt...just for the experience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'd say SLK has the coldest mins consistently of the ASOS stations. Sometimes HIE, BML, HUL, 40B, or FVE will beat them out. Of course there's MWN too, but I don't count them since they're up over 6kft. I think the coldest place with obs right now is the Big Black River station in northern Maine. Like dryslot mentioned, they hit -50F a couple years back. I'm not sure if they were even around for the 2004 cold shot or prior. They were not around, Van Buren held it at -48F prior to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Berlin NH? Right by the river, That place radiates like hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 These were just from this past Friday, Wait until next week NOUS41 KCAR 181326 PNSCAR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 822 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013 ...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS... ...LOCATION... ...TIME... ...MIN... ESTCOURT STATION MAWS (AROOSTOOK ME) 745 AM JAN 18 -30 F 2 WSW CARIBOU (NWS EMPLOYEE) 750 AM JAN 18 -24 F NORTHERN MAINE REGIONAL AIRPORT 735 AM JAN 18 -24 F 4 E NEW SWEDEN (AROOSTOOK ME) 724 AM JAN 18 -22 F NINE MILE BRIDGE (AROOSTOOK ME) (GOES) 700 AM JAN 18 -22 F 1 NW CLAYTON LAKE (AROOSTOOK ME) (AWOS) 725 AM JAN 18 -22 F MADAWASKA (AROOSTOOK ME) (503 FT)(AWS) 745 AM JAN 18 -21 F DICKEY (AROOSTOOK ME) (590 FT)(GOES) 700 AM JAN 18 -21 F CARIBOU, ME (AROOSTOOK ME) (ASOS) 654 AM JAN 18 -21 F 1 NE CARIBOU (AROOSTOOK ME) (APRSWXNET) 647 AM JAN 18 -20 F 1 NW PRESQUE ISLE (AROOSTOOK ME) 747 AM JAN 18 -20 F 4 ENE BAKER LAKE (SOMERSET ME) (RAWS) 615 AM JAN 18 -20 F 2 W SAINT AGATHA (AROOSTOOK ME) 714 AM JAN 18 -19 F BIG BLACK RIVER (AROOSTOOK ME) (GOES) 1200 AM JAN 18 -18 F 1 ENE PRESQUE ISLE (AROOSTOOK ME) 724 AM JAN 18 -18 F 5 NE MARS HILL (AROOSTOOK ME) 747 AM JAN 18 -18 F 1 NW PRESQUE ISLE (AROOSTOOK ME) 600 AM JAN 18 -17 F NORTHERN AROOSTOOK REGIONAL AIRPORT 653 AM JAN 18 -17 F HOULTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 753 AM JAN 18 -17 F 3 NW MONTICELLO (AROOSTOOK ME) 745 AM JAN 18 -16 F 5 SE WINTERVILLE (AROOSTOOK ME) (MEDOT) 325 AM JAN 18 -16 F SAINT ZACHARIE (SOMERSET ME) (GOES) 545 AM JAN 18 -15 F 2 SSW ASHLAND (AROOSTOOK ME) (AIRNOW) 600 AM JAN 18 -13 F MILLINOCKET MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 753 AM JAN 18 -11 F GREENVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ASOS 656 AM JAN 18 -11 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This was inside the building in 04 when that heating valve failed overnight and alarms for low temperature failed. These are elevator controls inside the building.Multiple back up systems are now in place to prevent that disaster week from occurring again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.