IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Due to decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Around 14:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Way too warm.. Way too early, and this storm belongs in the banter thread anyway. Not the 1/26 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GGEM is a solid front end thump for most of the area before mixing with and changing over to rain. it's the most amplified and warmest solution of the 00z suite so far. Big change in the 00z UKMET. It was one of the most amplified solutions at 12z. Now it takes a track similar to the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GGEM is a solid front end thump for most of the area before mixing with and changing over to rain. it's the most amplified and warmest solution of the 00z suite so far. Big change in the 00z UKMET. It was one of the most amplified solutions at 12z. Now it takes a track similar to the GFS solution. The UKMET has a habit of agreeing with the GFS most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Way too early, and this storm belongs in the banter thread anyway. Not the 1/26 thread. Agreed I just always get excited when I see a trough orientation like that even though it won't come close to verifying. Also triple phasers will almost invariably result in a changeover for us unless the PV phasing occurs at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GGEM is a solid front end thump for most of the area before mixing with and changing over to rain. it's the most amplified and warmest solution of the 00z suite so far. Big change in the 00z UKMET. It was one of the most amplified solutions at 12z. Now it takes a track similar to the GFS solution. The GEM is much earlier with the event as a whole than the GFS/UKMET...likely why its track is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 PLEASE! Its a light to moderate snow event. Generic 3-6" storm no matter what ratios people try to fabricate.... a general 3" with some 6" lollipops...;-) not to mention in the 2013 winter there is PLENTY of time for this to become a zero... That's an 8-12" event for a lot of places as depicted on 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 PLEASE! Its a light to moderate snow event. Generic 3-6" storm no matter what ratios people try to fabricate.... a general 3" with some 6" lollipops...;-) not to mention in the 2013 winter there is PLENTY of time for this to become a zero... Your frustration this winter is hampering your thoughts. The 00z GFS verbatim is 6" plus for just about everyone, especially north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Your frustration this winter is hampering your thoughts. The 00z GFS verbatim is 6" plus for just about everyone, especially north and west. i am not n&w...i am s&e and n&w ALWAYS will get "more in this situation. lets talk reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The UKMET has a habit of agreeing with the GFS most of the time. The UKMET had a phased cutter at 12z today. Big big changes from that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The UKMET has a habit of agreeing with the GFS most of the time. that actually looks goood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 you are a top 3 poster here...but 8-12???? lol. There is .4 QPF, we NEVER get those ratios. Jan 1996 didnt have those ratios....ONE TIME we got those in Jan 2004...ONCE. That equates to 3-6" nothing more Total QPF is about .75" for south-central NJ, which stays all snow this run. That would put them in the 8-12" zone. Also, places in north Jersey and extreme SE NY get .5" QPF with 850s near -10C...I haven't run BUFKIT but you have to think they get at least 12:1 ratios, if not a bit better. Again we're talking verbatim on the 0z GFS, not a forecast here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The GEM is much earlier with the event as a whole than the GFS/UKMET...likely why its track is different. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the GGEM tends to overphase storms resulting in it being generally too warm for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Stop trolling. It's not 0.4" of precip for most people on this subforum. even if its .6...my 6" max will still hit, except for isolated areas...and again this ia 132 hrs from now. Not like its not going to change 18 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Total QPF is about .75" for south-central NJ, which stays all snow this run. That would put them in the 8-12" zone. Also, places in north Jersey and extreme SE NY get .5" QPF with 850s near -10C...I haven't run BUFKIT but you have to think they get at least 12:1 ratios, if not a bit better. Again we're talking verbatim on the 0z GFS, not a forecast here: qpf1.25.gif SNJ is the Philly thread...this is NYC. most areas near here are at less than .5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the GGEM tends to overphase storms resulting in it being generally too warm for the region. Usually, but it had the Euro/UKMET/NOGAPS/JMA all on the same idea at 12Z though...it has lost the NOGAPS/UKMET at 00Z and the GFS ensembles are pretty suppressed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS ensembles @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 the 12z euro and 0z gfs all trended slower with the shortwave entering the conus, hence the changes. something of notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 you are a top 3 poster here...but 8-12???? lol. There is .4 QPF, we NEVER get those ratios. Jan 1996 didnt have those ratios....ONE TIME we got those in Jan 2004...ONCE. That equates to 3-6" nothing more . January '96 blizzard, while was very cold to begin with, never really had better ratios than 12:1. and JAN '04 had 18:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 0z gfs on the left, 12 on the right for 18z thursday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The 0z image I saw for this event had most areas N&W of NYC in the dark green designation. This indicates 0.25" - 0.50" liquid equivalent. I gravely doubt one would be able to obtain 8 - 12 inches of snow from that amount of water given the projected thermal profile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Li could see 8" if the gfs verified (which it wont bc it will change a bunch more before then)...at. 6 which is what he was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think they should initiate storm mode whenever there is a storm progged... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 a 3-6 inch snowfall isnt reallyjust generic around here KU's dont come around that ofteni think people hae been spoiled. if places received that most would be in double digits with the snowiest month left to go. i would take itt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Most east coastal storms have a 10-1 ratio, even at low thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Ratios of 20:1 are very common...in the Rockies and also in lake effect snowbelts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm not of fan of everyone using ratios to justify snowfall amounts as most events go by the standard 10:1 with some slight variations among storms at best. Very rarely do we get a combination of truly arctic temperatures and a strong storm system to give greater than 12:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro is further south through hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hr 102 over tenn. Further south and not as amp up as 12z. Keeping northern stream sep this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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