bluewave Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 That's what no -NAO does to us. Nothing at all to stop it from becoming more amplified and ultimately cutting. Hopefully we at least get something for all the cold air initially and some snow, but for the coast the cold gets easily pushed out. Inland probably goes snow to ice. We need the Euro to be too strong and have the wave less amplified so it transfers to the coast further south. But amplified solutions without a good -NAO will always ride to close to the coast for here on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Every model did shift N though, so that is a bit concerningI think they all showed us the extreme southern solutions already, now its the extreme northern solutions. Perhaps they'll meet up in the middle in the end? (I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Every model did shift N though, so that is a bit concerning Not every model. ECM shifted the snow band southward on the 12z run per the Accuweather Pro Maps. A solid 3-6" for I-95 and 6"+ for 1234abc land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I dont think you can say that about the coast either. Just yesterday it had the coast all frozen. I highly disagree unless this is SE of the benchmark the immediate coast has trouble. It has been a terrible winter here with just .9 not including November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I highly disagree unless this is SE of the benchmark the immediate coast has trouble. It has been a terrible winter here with just .9 not including November. I think it will come down to the strength and position of the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I highly disagree unless this is SE of the benchmark the immediate coast has trouble. It has been a terrible winter here with just .9 not including November. Much of that is dependent upon the amount of cold air in place to the north...I've seen eastbound mid latitude cyclones pass off the Jersey shore in the vicinity of Long Branch where the NYC metro area remained all snow...like in March 8, 1984...clearly a tight thermal gradient...but the area stayed north of the warm front and the wind shift line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's how fast the primary gives up. U need The secondary to take over fast or u warm the lower and mid levels. The longer the primary stay strong ur winds don't turn back NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Much of that is dependent upon the amount of cold air in place to the north...I've seen eastbound mid latitude cyclones pass off the Jersey shore in the vicinity of Long Branch where the NYC metro area remained all snow...like in March 8, 1984...clearly a tight thermal gradient...but the area stayed north of the warm front and the wind shift line. All depends on how deep your low to the west and synoptic setup is for sure...1/17/94, 12/14/89 and 1/3/99 are all examples of how we can go from 10 degrees to 45 in 6 hours if the setup sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Its all relative to location, I had 5+ inches in November on the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Dt going for a nj,NYC, and sne snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 EC ENS are further south for this event and exit the low south of Montauk, LI at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Dt going for a nj,NYC, and sne snow event. Unfortunately he doesn't actually have any control of the weather so what he's going with means little. I hope he's right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 EC ENS are further south for this event and exit the low south of Montauk, LI at 132 hours. Thats a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 18z gfs not as amp this run, and also further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hr 108 low over ky. Over running snow from dca to state college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hr 111 snow dca to NYC. Hr 114 mod hit for area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 DGEX has another significant event for Saturday as it develops a low over the southeast and bombs it as it heads north, giving significant snow (about 3 inches for NE NJ, 6 inches for NYC, and a blizzard for eastern Long Island with a foot of snow as it deepens the low to 971mb SE of Cape Cod, then to 961mb east of Cape Cod). Too bad it won't really happen, but it sure looks pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hr 108 low over ky. Over running snow from dca to state college This sounds more like the 12z ECM ENS than the 12z ECM OP run. Definitely much colder. 18z NAM almost looked like more of a west-east mover, so that gives some support for the 18z GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 18z GFS looks a lot like the Euro ensembles sound. This will exit the Jersey south and go south of Long Island the way it looks right now. This one is looking really good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nice hit for NYC at 117... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 18z depicts a 24hr long duration event despite its .5 QPF up to NYC. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nice hit for NYC at 117... The key is the weaker less amplified solution so CAD wins out. It just makes me a little nervous that the GFS is showing this with its bias to suppress the SE Ridge. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 18z depicts a 24hr long duration event despite its .5 QPF up to NYC. I'll take it. Yeah QPF isn't amazing but it lasts for a while. Next weekend looks really cold again...850s of -14C with snow cover. Not as powerful as the mid-week cold shot but still impressive, and snow cover with clearer skies should make for better radiating conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This solution makes more sense than much of the 12z data, due to the tendency of modelling to drive sfc lows to the north at the first "detected" sign of weakness in the flow. In the medium range, models will often find a weakness and underestimate the cold air damming, and shove the low northward as if it's a swinging door, when in reality, it's a brick wall. There will be an antecedent arctic airmass and arctic air immediately following the short wave - it's an arctic sandwich. Makes zero sense to drive a sfc low to Erie PA with the sprawling PV in Eastern Canada and strong low level cold. Look to see 00z data begin to move a bit further south though I doubt we'll see a consensus on this for a few more days, which will be a more suppressed solution in my opinion. One that may provide the area with the largest in winter snowfall since 2010-11 (greater than a few inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The key is the weaker less amplified solution so CAD wins out. It just makes me a little nervous that the GFS is showing this with its bias to suppress the SE Ridge. We'll see how it goes. If the SE ridge can win out w/ a -20c antecedent airmass, then we've got a real issue here. I feel strongly that the warm/rainy solutions will be wrong here, but we'll see. Better chance of a MA hit and NYC miss than rain in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If the SE ridge can win out w/ a -20c antecedent airmass, then we've got a real issue here. I feel strongly that the warm/rainy solutions will be wrong here, but we'll see. Better chance of a MA hit and NYC miss than rain in my view. I think that it all depends on how amplified the system when it ejects out into the Plains. We had a much colder pattern ahead of 1-17-94 but the low still cut in with a more amplified pattern. We probably have to wait for the energy to get sampled near the West Coast in a few days to know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 18z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Snow88, dgex is blowing up the secondary wave, which is highly unlikely, it runs the first low far north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Snow88, dgex is blowing up the secondary wave, which is highly unlikely, it runs the first low far north... I agree. I don't think the 2 wave theory will pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Here is the 18z GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12120.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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