atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12 Z European really cuts this system to the west with it near Erie PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Would start off as frozen on euro...but it would change over to plain rain with track over Syracuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif 12 Z European really cuts this system to the west with it near Erie PA Looks like a monster thump of snow with 850s of -12C draped over the air...CAD hanging tough east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Cad signature on the Euro, wonder if the energy transfers to coast keeping cold air locked in at the surface or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I would take a couple of inches to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like a monster thump of snow with 850s of -12C draped over the air...CAD hanging tough east of the Apps. It does. But I hate that track for us. Think it's a pretty good to lock we get some frozen out of this. This low level artic air will be hard to dis lodge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It does. But I hate that track for us. Think it's a pretty good to lock we get some frozen out of this. This low level artic air will be hard to dis lodge It's a crappy track but we finally have an arctic airmass over us, so the results are going to be more like 1/28/09 than 12/27/12... We probably dryslot pretty quickly after the initial front-end dump. Apparently QPF isn't huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 U guys hav no idea what ur talking about. Im serious. The first center runs to pitt. The secondary forms off the jersey coast. Ur 850s at the atart are minus 18 they get to minus 1. By the time 90 perc of the precip has fallen. Temps start im the low 20 and get to 32 in the park. So most of the precip is snow . And u end as sleet. U waa. So most of what falls is snow. This is not plain rain. Its not a blzz either but come on read the whole column. If the city gets 4 inches i wouldnt b surprised. And then the euro brings the pv back in right behind it. Chill pp Thx for confirming a secondary does form. Couldn't tell with 24hr maps on Allan's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 wunderground euro pushes the coastal sections into the 40's when most of the precip falls as rain. but there is good CAD NW with snow or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 wunderground euro pushes the coastal sections into the 40's when most of the precip falls as rain. but there is good CAD NW with snow or ice.[/quote CPK? What hour brother ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 So how would the park stay frozen with temps in the 40's....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We will not get into the 40s. If we do not stay frozen, though I think we will, we will be stuck in the low 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We will not get into the 40s. If we do not stay frozen, though I think we will, we will be stuck in the low 30s The Euro has southerly winds gusting over 30 mph at the coast so LI would easily climb into the 40's should the warm front clear the area. NYC looks like upper 30's with colder air hanging on longer interior where most of the frozen will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Euro has most of the precip over us with temps in the 30s . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The Euro has southerly winds gusting over 30 mph at the coast so LI would easily climb into the 40's should the warm front clear the area. NYC looks like upper 30's with colder air hanging on longer interior where most of the frozen will fall. CPK. Hr 120 850 are minus 18 precip starts. Surface temps low 20 s. hr 126. 850s CPK are minus 3. Surface temps close to freezing , by the time the precip ends most of the precip has fallen at CPK at or below freezing. I am sure that long island thru the coast of nj south sure not good. But CPK was what I spoke about and I don't see upper 30 at the height brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 U guys hav no idea what ur talking about. Im serious. The first center runs to pitt. The secondary forms off the jersey coast. Ur 850s at the atart are minus 18 they get to minus 1. By the time 90 perc of the precip has fallen. Temps start im the low 20 and get to 32 in the park. So most of the precip is snow . And u end as sleet. U waa. So most of what falls is snow. This is not plain rain. Its not a blzz either but come on read the whole column. If the city gets 4 inches i wouldnt b surprised. And then the euro brings the pv back in right behind it. Chill ppI have the Euro in 3 hr increments from Wright-Weather and you are absolutely correct. NYC may turn over toward the end, in fact probably will, but at least 2/3rds of this would be snow in NYC and the NW burbs would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I have the Euro in 3 hr increments from Wright-Weather and you are absolutely correct. NYC may turn over toward the end, in fact probably will, but at least 2/3rds of this would be snow in NYC and the NW burbs would be all snow. Does KLGA fare as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 CPK. Hr 120 850 are minus 18 precip starts. Surface temps low 20 s. hr 126. 850s CPK are minus 3. Surface temps close to freezing , by the time the precip ends most of the precip has fallen at CPK at or below freezing. I am sure that long island thru the coast of nj south sure not good. But CPK was what I spoke about and I don't see upper 30 at the height brother They are only -10C at 12z and steadily rising with strong WAA. The Park gets a front end thump before going over to all rain also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 U guys hav no idea what ur talking about. Im serious. The first center runs to pitt. The secondary forms off the jersey coast. Ur 850s at the atart are minus 18 they get to minus 1. By the time 90 perc of the precip has fallen. Temps start im the low 20 and get to 32 in the park. So most of the precip is snow . And u end as sleet. U waa. So most of what falls is snow. This is not plain rain. Its not a blzz either but come on read the whole column. If the city gets 4 inches i wouldnt b surprised. And then the euro brings the pv back in right behind it. Chill pp hr 120 precip just entering the area, everyone except south east jersey bellow 32. .10-.25 has fell in nw jersey all other areas under .10, by hr 126 .25-.50 has fallen, 850 line basically on rt 78, 32 degree line into nw jersey, . looks like precip ends before hr 126 though . so yes city would see front end snow, nw jersey probably all snow. i didnt look at any other levels though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 They are only -10C at 12z and steadily rising with strong WAA. The Park gets a front end thump before going over to all rain also. I don't disagree that CPK sleets and rain at the end. But I thought u were saying CPK was goin to mid 40 s. but I thnk the park thumps before a change at the end and by the time they do 80 perc of what falls may b snow. We r not far off. U mayb 50 50. I am 80 20 mayb I can change as we get closer inI can see brightwaters east. Down to AC goin to 40 if that map is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Took a closer look at the surface temps, 850 temps and so on and I can tell you that at 123 hrs the max precip rates are happening in NYC and the 850 temps are still about -5 with surface temps right at 32 degrees. It is only after this heavy precip ends which is probably about 2 hours later that the temps warm up at 850 and the surface, so, this very well could be all snow even in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Took a closer look at the surface temps, 850 temps and so on and I can tell you that at 123 hrs the max precip rates are happening in NYC and the 850 temps are still about -5 with surface temps right at 32 degrees. It is only after this heavy precip ends which is probably about 2 hours later that the temps warm up at 850 and the surface, so, this very well could be all snow even in NYC. I mean I'm sorry I meant no disrespect earlier. , but I kind read it the same way u r. Even took the goggles off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I don't disagree that CPK sleets and rain at the end. But I thought u were saying CPK was goin to mid 40 s. but I thnk the park thumps before a change at the end and by the time they do 80 perc of what falls may b snow. We r not far off. U mayb 50 50. I am 80 20 mayb I can change as we get closer in FWIW the wunderground snow maps look like a quick 1-2 at NYC before going over to rain after 15z. KNYC looks like warming to upper 30's with 40's out across Long Island. But it all depends how how much precip actually verifies. Hopefully, the system verifies less amplified since a more wound up low would have too much WAA at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Took a closer look at the surface temps, 850 temps and so on and I can tell you that at 123 hrs the max precip rates are happening in NYC and the 850 temps are still about -5 with surface temps right at 32 degrees. It is only after this heavy precip ends which is probably about 2 hours later that the temps warm up at 850 and the surface, so, this very well could be all snow even in NYC. NYC will snow for quite awhile on all of the model tracks currently shown minus probably the NOGAPS...the signal of that SE wind or S wind always shows on the models in these setups but never actually verifies, you wind up with more of a light SE surface flow because usually the high causes a bit of a damming setup. As long as this does not ramp up into a sub 990 low and cut straight north into Michigan we're gonna see snow because of the cold airmass in place. I don't forsee this being able to really cut much further west or overly deepen because the pattern is somewhat too progressive and another big arctic high is on its heels dropping into the Upper Midwest behind it. The NOGAPS/Euro are probably almost a worse case scenario with this storm on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 From looking at this in the 3 hr increments in high resolution, as modeled by the EC, I think this is a typical snow to drizzle at the end set-up after the heavy precip rates come to an end. It is pretty clear when seen in the 3 hour increments in high resolution. Not saying it will stay like this, but the Euro kicks every other model's rear end at 120 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 And all this bickering over specific temps for a storm 5 days away. Lets get the track of the storm set before debating temps. I dont think the models have a clue yet. Plenty of time for this to adjust south. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 wunderground euro pushes the coastal sections into the 40's when most of the precip falls as rain. but there is good CAD NW with snow or ice. That's what no -NAO does to us. Nothing at all to stop it from becoming more amplified and ultimately cutting. Hopefully we at least get something for all the cold air initially and some snow, but for the coast the cold gets easily pushed out. Inland probably goes snow to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 And all this bickering over specific temps for a storm 5 days away. Lets get the track of the storm set before debating temps. I dont think the models have a clue yet. Plenty of time for this to adjust south. Just my two cents. i couldnt agree more!! And some of the best poster are breaking their own rules and doing it. Based on the trends and the winter as a whole the only thing that is set in stone is the immediate coast will have trouble staying all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 i couldnt agree more!! And some of the best poster are breaking their own rules and doing it. Based on the trends and the winter as a whole the only thing that is set in stone is the immediate coast will have trouble staying all snow... I dont think you can say that about the coast either. Just yesterday it had the coast all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Every model did shift N though, so that is a bit concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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