Winter storm threat disc 1/25/13-1/26/13

[Ed Lizard]

That stinks. Sounds similar to the deluge we had in late December.

 

Since solutions of both GFS and Euro seem very variable between runs, I think you guys have to stay glass full optimistic.

[Ed Lizard]

Can't stay up for PPV AccuWx 6 hour EC maps, on the free PSU e-Wall version, the low moves in 24 hours from near Cincinnati to just East of Boston, with no obvious signs to this amateur hobbyist of a secondary.

 

It is mostly snow in BOS per PPV text...

 

GFS not super well supported by ensemble means

[PB GFI]

It's not a bowling ball scenario....I see no closed h5 low bowling its way east....it's called a re-developer

Sighhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, Its a bowling ball in the sense that it comes under the PV ...................................... It doesnt go to Madison wisc like progged to 4 days ago ...

The system cut thru the Ohio valley , its irrelevant that it secondaries.

[Allsnow]

06z gfs further north rides mason Dixon line. Pretty big hit here. But any further north we taint

[rcad1]

The 12z models should be interesting. Especially since now the the 06z gfs has Come further North. Starting to womder if this is the beginning of a bad trend for NYC hopefully the12z euro Comes in South of the 0z!!!!!!!!!

[weathermedic]

Guys, don't write this event on or off just yet; this is what Upton said this morning about the potential event for Fri:

 

MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK/START THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT. BUT BECAUSE THE ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
IN THE BERING SEA AND NOT EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE WEST COAST
TILL MIDWEEK THERE IS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS
AT THIS TIME. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY THE STILL WIDE RANGE OF MEDIUM
RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS

[Allsnow]

12z gfs has low just north of cincy. Further north then 06z. Very cold ahead of system.

[Allsnow]

Good over running snows this run. But looks like we will change over. Heavy snow at hr 114

[Allsnow]

Tracks through south central nj. Front end dump to slop this run. Nw areas stay snow

[PB GFI]

Tracks through south central nj. Front end dump to slop this run. Nw areas stay snow

Think 850`s are fine at its height

[Allsnow]

Think 850`s are fine at its height

The trend north needs to stop. Have no room for error anymore

[WintersGrasp]

As it is modeled now, this is a mixing scenario for NYC. Primarily snow and all frozen but most likely 3" of snow followed by sleet

[PB GFI]

The trend north needs to stop. Have no room for error anymore

HR 90 850`s are minus 18 . 24 hrs later it scours it all out ?  Wait until this thing is in the plains Tues AM  and sees all that low level cold air  , its in the Bering Sea , plenty of time to sort .

It doesnt mean it cant scour it , but it exits off NJ .

5 DAYS AWAY . way early to call for accum . wait until Tues AM

Thats a lot of dense cold air to displace .

[WintersGrasp]

The trend north needs to stop. Have no room for error anymore

HR 90 850`s are minus 18 . 24 hrs later it scours it all out ? Wait until this thing is in the plains Tues AM and sees all that low level cold air , its in the Bering Sea , plenty of time to sort .

It doesnt mean it cant scour it , but it exits off NJ .

5 DAYS AWAY . way early to call for accum . wait until Tues AM

Thats a lot of dense cold air to displace .

I'd have to agree with you here. I'm almost positive that the models will trend colder, and I'm also fairly confident in AT LEAST a 3-6" snowfall for our area, with 50% chance of even 6"+

[FPizz]

Is it cold after the storm? Would be fitting..

[SnowGoose69]

I generally do not like SW flow events for this area which involve some sort of ridge out west, those tend to trend north as the event gets closer...you usually want to see a shallow trof along the West Coast like 12/19/08 which keeps the wave somewhat suppressed and the flow progressive...the ridging out west can allow too much digging and amplification over the Ohio Valley and as a result the system goes north.

[tombo82685]

HR 90 850`s are minus 18 . 24 hrs later it scours it all out ? Wait until this thing is in the plains Tues AM and sees all that low level cold air , its in the Bering Sea , plenty of time to sort .

It doesnt mean it cant scour it , but it exits off NJ .

5 DAYS AWAY . way early to call for accum . wait until Tues AM

Thats a lot of dense cold air to displace .

850 temp is not low level it's mid levels which usually warm up fast since its a south westerly flow. The gfs is never good with cad and low level cold which is more of an ice situation

[bluewave]

I generally do not like SW flow events for this area which involve some sort of ridge out west, those tend to trend north as the event gets closer...you usually want to see a shallow trof along the West Coast like 12/19/08 which keeps the wave somewhat suppressed and the flow progressive...the ridging out west can allow too much digging and amplification over the Ohio Valley and as a result the system goes north.

 

I generally like less amplified solutions like 2-22-08 for the coastal sections not to change to a mix and then rain.

But the marginal NAO will allow the PV inch east while the SE Ridge creeps up just enough to warm the coastal

sections with too amplified a solution.

[PB GFI]

850 temp is not low level it's mid levels which usually warm up fast since its a south westerly flow. The gfs is never good with cad and low level cold which is more of an ice situation

12z ensembles look colder too me. I nvr do precip type day. 5. But sure ice is something that pops up in sits like ths

[Snow_Miser]

GGEM is a solid front end dump of snow.

[IsentropicLift]

12z GFS data for KMMU - 12 hour event, changes to rain even that far inland

 

130125/0300Z 111 11007KT 24.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
130125/0600Z 114 10012KT 30.1F SNOW 4:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.263 6:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0
130125/0900Z 117 22003KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.274 6:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 0| 0|100
130125/1200Z 120 27005KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 6:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 0| 0|100

 

KLGA

 

130125/0300Z 111 13010KT 28.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
130125/0600Z 114 11013KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.251 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 58| 0| 42
130125/0900Z 117 21009KT 37.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.294 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 0| 0|100
130125/1200Z 120 26011KT 36.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 0| 0|100

KSWF

 

130125/0300Z 111 12005KT 19.5F SNOW 18:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 18:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
130125/0600Z 114 09008KT 20.9F SNOW 6:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.209 7:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
130125/0900Z 117 06008KT 23.3F SNOW 5:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240 6:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0
130125/1200Z 120 02006KT 22.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.041 6:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.52 0| 0|100

Compared to 06z GFS - KSWF

 

130125/1200Z 126 10004KT 16.2F SNOW 15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0
130125/1500Z 129 09008KT 18.6F SNOW 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.161 12:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
130125/1800Z 132 06010KT 22.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139 9:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130125/2100Z 135 03010KT 19.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 9:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0
130126/0000Z 138 03006KT 19.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 9:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0
130126/0300Z 141 01006KT 19.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 9:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 0| 0| 0
130126/0600Z 144 36006KT 18.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 9:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46 100| 0| 0

KMMU

 

130125/1200Z 126 10008KT 21.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101 12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0
130125/1500Z 129 10010KT 28.1F SNOW 11:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.251 11:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0
130125/1800Z 132 09004KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.180 11:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130125/2100Z 135 35008KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 11:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 100| 0| 0

KLGA

 

130125/1200Z 126 12009KT 24.7F SNOW 16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
130125/1500Z 129 12012KT 30.6F SNOW 11:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197 12:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
130125/1800Z 132 13006KT 36.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.210 12:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130125/2100Z 135 33008KT 34.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 12:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 38| 0| 62
130126/0000Z 138 01015KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 11:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 100| 0| 0
130126/0300Z 141 01012KT 21.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 11:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0
130126/0600Z 144 01013KT 22.5F SNOW 4:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 11:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130126/0900Z 147 36013KT 21.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 0| 0| 0
130126/1200Z 150 36014KT 21.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 0| 0| 0
130126/1500Z 153 35015KT 20.4F SNOW 16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 11:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 100| 0| 0

[nzucker]

Looks like a potentially icing situation north+west with the cold air in place. Still thinking it trends a bit south, however.

[lab94]

Just north of 80 may (as of this run) stay all snow. here is 120Hr

 

[MJO812]

I find it weird that the models are driving this storm west with all the cold air around.

[jamesny]

Is it possible all that cold air can retreat so quickly?

[NorEaster27]

Is it possible all that cold air can retreat so quickly?

yes very much so with no blocking

[rcad1]

There is nothing to stop the storms from going west and pumping the warm air up remember what blue wave and others have been saying about the se ridge and not having a -nao...

[ace0927]

Sighhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, Its a bowling ball in the sense that it comes under the PV ...................................... It doesnt go to Madison wisc like progged to 4 days ago ...

The system cut thru the Ohio valley , its irrelevant that it secondaries.

It's not a bowling...it just cuts under the vortex....

[ace0927]

I find it weird that the models are driving this storm west with all the cold air around.

What does cold air by itself have to do with it? Is there anything to keep the cold air in place? Most of you are too young to remember but in 1994 it was -1 in the AM and 24 hours later in 55 with rain. This 22 degree cold is hardly cold.

[ace0927]

Is it possible all that cold air can retreat so quickly?

Yes, there is no blocking