jm1220 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Way more close calls with storms "just missing" this winter oppose to last winter. That's why(at least for me) this winter feels worse than last year. There wasn't heart break Last year because there was barely anything to track, so we already knew what the deal was. This year we get to track but the outcome is never good. 07-08 was much the same kind of winter for me, where New England would get blasted again and again but we would get rain or a miss east. The worst slap in the face was the 1-15-08 debacle that season. That said, there's hope for redemption this season but the overall pattern has to slow down and we have to lock down a trough in the East-not the progressive messy flow we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Part of the Joy is tracking the storms and the anticipation of each model run. Last year was plain boring with none of that, at least this year is exciting with a chance of something happening. Absolutely plus people are throwing in the towel before our historically snowiest month! With cold air modeled for Feb I think it will take a miracle to keep us from scoring at least one 6+ are wide event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Part of the Joy is tracking the storms and the anticipation of each model run. Last year was plain boring with none of that, at least this year is exciting with a chance of something happening. I'll agree with you on that, this year is far superior to last year in terms of tracking. Maybe I should of worded it differently by saying it's been more frustrating to me this year watching all these storm outcomes. Last year was purely boring, no doubt about that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I still say this storm is going to surprise some people. I'd say somewhere on Eastern Suffolk county might get 3-4" out of this thing before it heads out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Anyone have a clue to when it might start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 State College is now reporting Light Snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 between 3 & 6 from west to east. Anyone have a clue to when it might start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I still say this storm is going to surprise some people. I'd say somewhere on Eastern Suffolk county might get 3-4" out of this thing before it heads out. Might. But 3-4" is highly unlikely. Maybe 2.5" the max I'd say, emphasis on the word max Anyone have a clue to when it might start? Around 7PM, might be a little earlier though, might be later with virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Remember when clippers use to reach the coast and then bomb out. Those were the days. Well that's because El Ninos were common in a +PDO Regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm trying to determine the correlation between the #of minutes since the last post in a snow storm related thread, and the expected snowfall. Right now I think it is something on the order of 16-x, where x = the median # of minutes ago of the last 5 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 As an aside, the last 8 weeks have been about the most gut-wrenching winter period I've experienced in the NYC Metro. This winter feels worse than last. It is worse than last, so far at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It depends on where you are located. In terms of temperature, I think we all are running cooler than last year at least. In terms of snow, it's different all over the place. I'm running higher than last year's total snowfall while other places like the city are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It depends on where you are located. In terms of temperature, I think we all are running cooler than last year at least. In terms of snow, it's different all over the place. I'm running higher than last year's total snowfall while other places like the city are not. I find it funny NYC is running lower than last year through this point and likely will finish January lower...then again a total of 5 inches or so through the end of January I'm not even sure makes it into the top 5 lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I find it funny NYC is running lower than last year through this point and likely will finish January lower...then again a total of 5 inches or so through the end of January I'm not even sure makes it into the top 5 lowest. Not even close to the top 5 lowest... 1 0.2 1994-1995 2 0.5 1997-1998 3 0.6 1918-1919 4 1.1 1899-1900 5 1.6 1913-1914 6 1.8 1972-1973 7 1.9 1992-1993 8 2.1 1900-1901 9 2.2 1991-1992, 1974-1975, 1949-1950 12 2.5 1905-1906 13 2.6 2006-2007 14 2.7 1954-1955 15 2.8 1971-1972 16 2.9 2007-2008, 1931-1932 18 3.1 1985-1986 19 3.5 2001-2002 20 4.0 1923-1924 21 4.3 1928-1929 22 4.5 1996-1997 23 4.8 1943-1944, 1927-1928 25 4.9 1982-1983, 1925-1926 Now, if you just count since December 1, it looks a bit more desperate... 1 0.2 1994-1995 2 0.4 2012-2013 2 0.5 1997-1998 3 0.6 1918-1919 4 0.9 1931-1932 5 1.1 1899-1900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 18z Nam has a nice band swinging through NYC later this evening. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Anyone have a clue to when it might start? about 3 minutes before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 18z NAM looks very nice. Has us under 20 dbz band for at least 4 hours! And if you're only expecting a few flakes, look at the radar, look at obs, very little virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 about 3 minutes before it ends. Dusting to an inch at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 18z NAM looks very nice. Has us under 20 dbz band for at least 4 hours! And if you're only expecting a few flakes, look at the radar, look at obs, very little virga. With 0.06" liquid. Philly posters reporting very small flakes which imply lower ratios, maybe they'll get bigger/fluffier but its not starting out great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 With 0.06" liquid. ? I'm borderline with the 0.1" line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 ? I'm borderline with the 0.1" line That was for Central Park, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That was for Central Park, of course. O, sorry. Upton made a new snow map, they are showing 20:1 ratios. Who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 O, sorry. Upton made a new snow map, they are showing 20:1 ratios. Who knows... I went up from 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What's Upton snow map show now?? The radar looks horrible to our west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What's Upton snow map show now?? The radar looks horrible to our west.... In the obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What's Upton snow map show now?? The radar looks horrible to our west.... 1-2 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 O, sorry. Upton made a new snow map, they are showing 20:1 ratios. Who knows... Even 0.10 which is probably on the high side with 20:1 = 2". 1-2" is probably still a good bet although the radar is breaking down now in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The radar looks horrible to our West so im not sure where the,1-2 inches is going to come from unless I missing something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The radar looks horrible to our West so im not sure where the,1-2 inches is going to come from unless I missing something.. Don't look to the West, look to the Southwest around Philly, if we can get the band come more NE which it has been, we could see 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Downsloping taking its toll, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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