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Winter storm threat disc 1/25/13-1/26/13


Allsnow

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Way more close calls with storms "just missing" this winter oppose to last winter. That's why(at least for me) this winter feels worse than last year. There wasn't heart break Last year because there was barely anything to track, so we already knew what the deal was. This year we get to track but the outcome is never good.

07-08 was much the same kind of winter for me, where New England would get blasted again and again but we would get rain or a miss east. The worst slap in the face was the 1-15-08 debacle that season. That said, there's hope for redemption this season but the overall pattern has to slow down and we have to lock down a trough in the East-not the progressive messy flow we have now.

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Part of the Joy is tracking the storms and the anticipation of each model run.  Last year was plain boring with none of that, at least this year is exciting with a chance of something happening.

 

Absolutely plus people are throwing in the towel before our historically snowiest month! With cold air modeled for Feb I think it will take a miracle to keep us from scoring at least one 6+ are wide event!

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Part of the Joy is tracking the storms and the anticipation of each model run. Last year was plain boring with none of that, at least this year is exciting with a chance of something happening.

I'll agree with you on that, this year is far superior to last year in terms of tracking. Maybe I should of worded it differently by saying it's been more frustrating to me this year watching all these storm outcomes. Last year was purely boring, no doubt about that at all.

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I still say this storm is going to surprise some people. I'd say somewhere on Eastern Suffolk county might get 3-4" out of this thing before it heads out.

Might. But 3-4" is highly unlikely. Maybe 2.5" the max I'd say, emphasis on the word max

 

Anyone have a clue to when it might start?

Around 7PM, might be a little earlier though, might be later with virga

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It depends on where you are located. In terms of temperature, I think we all are running cooler than last year at least. In terms of snow, it's different all over the place. I'm running higher than last year's total snowfall while other places like the city are not.

I find it funny NYC is running lower than last year through this point and likely will finish January lower...then again a total of 5 inches or so through the end of January I'm not even sure makes it into the top 5 lowest.

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I find it funny NYC is running lower than last year through this point and likely will finish January lower...then again a total of 5 inches or so through the end of January I'm not even sure makes it into the top 5 lowest.

 

Not even close to the top 5 lowest...

  1     0.2    1994-1995  2     0.5    1997-1998  3     0.6    1918-1919  4     1.1    1899-1900  5     1.6    1913-1914  6     1.8    1972-1973  7     1.9    1992-1993  8     2.1    1900-1901  9     2.2    1991-1992,  1974-1975,  1949-1950 12     2.5    1905-1906 13     2.6    2006-2007 14     2.7    1954-1955 15     2.8    1971-1972 16     2.9    2007-2008,  1931-1932 18     3.1    1985-1986 19     3.5    2001-2002 20     4.0    1923-1924 21     4.3    1928-1929 22     4.5    1996-1997 23     4.8    1943-1944,  1927-1928 25     4.9    1982-1983,  1925-1926

Now, if you just count since December 1, it looks a bit more desperate...

  1     0.2    1994-1995  2     0.4    2012-2013  2     0.5    1997-1998  3     0.6    1918-1919  4     0.9    1931-1932  5     1.1    1899-1900
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18z NAM looks very nice. Has us under 20 dbz band for at least 4 hours! And if you're only expecting a few flakes, look at the radar, look at obs, very little virga.

With 0.06" liquid.

 

Philly posters reporting very small flakes which imply lower ratios, maybe they'll get bigger/fluffier but its not starting out great.

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