Winter storm threat disc 1/25/13-1/26/13

[WintersGrasp]

Is that a coastal low I see developing around the Delmarva ? jk but I'm sure we'll hear that at some point

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

wow the last time I heard that phrase used was just before the 1/22/05 event - Alan Kasper was on the air that saturday morning on 101.5 and said a "wall of snow" is approaching NJ"

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html

 

You also used the 1/22/05 analog for this event. Strange and pretty cool. 

[SnowGoose69]

Is that a coastal low I see developing around the Delmarva ? jk but I'm sure we'll hear that at some point

There will be a few meteorologists out there going crazy increasing their forecasts.

[IsentropicLift]

SPC meso confirms that pressure falls have begun off the Delmarva, although I still don't think it's going to mean much for us in the long run.

 

[Storm At Sea]

These posts have been entertaining this morning. I think this thread is the most quintessential NYC snow thread. It's almost like the stages of loss. In any case, a lot of people are hallucinating and/or looking way too into this. In fact, looking at the radar, the light snow may be done by 7pm. 

[IsentropicLift]

These posts have been entertaining this morning. I think this thread is the most quintessential NYC snow thread. It's almost like the stages of loss. In any case, a lot of people are hallucinating and/or looking way too into this. In fact, looking at the radar, the light snow may be done by 7pm. 

Do you have some sort of special radar that nobody else sees? The radar out of State College clearly shows a decent precip shield. Now how much of that makes it here is up for debate but it looks decent at the moment.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CCX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[NEG NAO]

These posts have been entertaining this morning. I think this thread is the most quintessential NYC snow thread. It's almost like the stages of loss. In any case, a lot of people are hallucinating and/or looking way too into this. In fact, looking at the radar, the light snow may be done by 7pm. 

huh ? according to alan kasper this morning he said it might not start up by NYC till closer to 6

[MJO812]

huh ? according to alan kasper this morning he said it might not start up by NYC till closer to 6

The precip is racing to the east so he might be right.

[KEITH L.I]

These posts have been entertaining this morning. I think this thread is the most quintessential NYC snow thread. It's almost like the stages of loss. In any case, a lot of people are hallucinating and/or looking way too into this. In fact, looking at the radar, the light snow may be done by 7pm. 

That post won't get anybody upset..even though that might have been your intention..we are talking about a freakin inch of snow here. who the heck cares..lol

[jm1220]

Do you have some sort of special radar that nobody else sees? The radar out of State College clearly shows a decent precip shield. Now how much of that makes it here is up for debate but it looks decent at the moment.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CCX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

I highly doubt the snow gets here in as organized a way as it currently is over OH/W PA. You can already see the heavier echos struggling their way into central PA, and that will only get worse as the downsloping begins. The echos are also aligned such that most of it might go S of us. There just won't be the kind of coastal enhancement we need to re-generate the snow.

[IsentropicLift]

huh ? according to alan kasper this morning he said it might not start up by NYC till closer to 6

Yeah I know he's a met but unless he was doing a forecast for somewhere else I have no idea how it would be over by 7. It probably won't start much before then and we should end up with at least a few solid hours based on radar trends. In my opinion the models are under doing the extent of the precip hitting the ground. Pitt is currently reporting 14 degress with moderate snow and freezing fog. Dewpoint of -10 so it seems like the dry air is being overcome.

[NEG NAO]

here is the 3 hr pressure changes as of 11

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur

[IsentropicLift]

The precip is racing to the east so he might be right.

Huh? Racing east? It's going to be several more hours before it arrives. What I think is happening is that it's expanding a bit more to the north and east.

[MJO812]

Ukie is a little more wetter than the 0z run

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=006&fixhh=1&hh=012

[green tube]

These posts have been entertaining this morning. I think this thread is the most quintessential NYC snow thread. It's almost like the stages of loss. In any case, a lot of people are hallucinating and/or looking way too into this. In fact, looking at the radar, the light snow may be done by 7pm. 

 

 

i remember years when clippers seemed very common.... i rapidly grew to hate them with a passion.... as healthy looking radar returns were eaten alive by the mountains.  

[IsentropicLift]

Ukie is a little more wetter than the 0z run

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=006&fixhh=1&hh=012

Gives most of us 1-2"

[danstorm]

Do you have some sort of special radar that nobody else sees? The radar out of State College clearly shows a decent precip shield. Now how much of that makes it here is up for debate but it looks decent at the moment.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CCX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

Radar looks awful.  Don't let that KPIT ob cloud your thinking.

[WeatherX]

Gives most of us 1-2"

Virga. Enjoy

[Storm At Sea]

Exactly. PIT normally does decently with these events...there's nothing but low lying lands to their west.

 

Radar looks awful.  Don't let that KPIT ob cloud your thinking.

[IsentropicLift]

We'll see, I've been downplaying this event the last few days but I still think the area will see around 1" area wide.

[Weathergun]

Cloud tops are warming. Sign that this "snow shield" is going to wind down this afternoon:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8ir.html

[TWCCraig]

12z NAM picks up well on downsloping. The radar should give us weaker returns but once it passes the mountains, the preip field reorganizes over us as it gains moisture from the developing coastal. Still gives CNJ and LI some 20dbz bands. Don't think we'll see whole lot of virga, considering it's already snowing in areas where the dp's are very low. But still, lots of discouraging posts on here as usual that usually come out wrong. Not like this is going to be big event or anything, though some weenies were calling 8-14" several days ago. 0.5" -1.5" on the island is my call.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Cloud tops are warming. Sign that this "snow shield" is going to wind down this afternoon:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8ir.html

A little Davork makes sense here. Shows the northern primary is dying right on schedule.

[danstorm]

Cloud tops are warming. Sign that this "snow shield" is going to wind down this afternoon:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8ir.html

 

Yeah, this supposed "storm" is not only having the typical issues of a moisture starved-clipper heading over the highlands, but it is heading into a very hostile environment WRT strengthening or even maintaining current dynamics.

 

This is what is meant by "squashed to the south", "crushed by the confluence", "surpression depression", etc....

 

As an aside, the last 8 weeks have been about the most gut-wrenching winter period I've experienced in the NYC Metro.  This winter feels worse than last.

[jm1220]

i remember years when clippers seemed very common.... i rapidly grew to hate them with a passion.... as healthy looking radar returns were eaten alive by the mountains.  

I liked clippers more when I was in State College, as downsloping didn't really set in until east of I-81. But you really need some kind of a redevelopment at the coast and for it to happen slowly enough for much of it to be "redeemed" after the mountains dry it up. This one just isn't very dynamic and the flow is too fast for it to be able to re-develop in time.

[MJO812]

Remember when clippers use to reach the coast and then bomb out. Those were the days.

[danstorm]

I liked clippers more when I was in State College, as downsloping didn't really set in until east of I-81. But you really need some kind of a redevelopment at the coast and for it to happen slowly enough for much of it to be "redeemed" after the mountains dry it up. This one just isn't very dynamic and the flow is too fast for it to be able to re-develop in time.

 

Yeah, me too.  3-5" deals used to be common out there. 

[TwcMan]

Way more close calls with storms "just missing" this winter oppose to last winter. That's why(at least for me) this winter feels worse than last year. There wasn't heart break Last year because there was barely anything to track, so we already knew what the deal was. This year we get to track but the outcome is never good.

[Zynlamar]

Way more close calls with storms "just missing" this winter oppose to last winter. That's why(at least for me) this winter feels worse than last year. There wasn't heart break Last year because there was barely anything to track, so we already knew what the deal was. This year we get to track but the outcome is never good.

Part of the Joy is tracking the storms and the anticipation of each model run.  Last year was plain boring with none of that, at least this year is exciting with a chance of something happening.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Part of the Joy is tracking the storms and the anticipation of each model run.  Last year was plain boring with none of that, at least this year is exciting with a chance of something happening.

Agreed.