famartin Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Taking the last 24 hours of model runs into consideration... I think I will make a modest downward adjustment in my forecast for TTN... from 1-3 inches to a coating-2 inches. I can still see them getting over an inch, but the possibility of more than 2 inches now seems very small, while the possibility if less than an inch is considerably larger. I do think it snows, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 06z GFS has KISP with 0.07" of precip....20:1 ratio, 1.4" of snow. It appears most models have at least 0.05", at most 0.09 of precip so that's at least an inch for me and areas south. Also considering the 03z SREFs came in wetter again. 0.1" line close to LI, and SREFs do very well in this time frame. SREFs want to develop the storm faster. Also, the current radar looks more organized and the precip field is larger than what the NAM had shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 i don't know why I'm still looking but we'd be lucky if we could even whiten the ground based on the 6z nam lol Too late to worry about moodels at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 ^^^ You're going to lose a decent bit of Qpf to saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 So take off 0.02" of precip due to virga of the point 0.07"....that's still 0.05" of precip which is still an inch. There's so much crying in this thread. Take it or leave it. I'll be happy with my inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think I'll be waiting for the S/W to be onshore before even expecting anything next time. Much less disappointment, better accuracy. Those NOAA recon missions were good. Once the data from those got ingested all of the big solutions when off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The radar doesn't look bad http://www.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp Is this the main precip from the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The radar doesn't look bad http://www.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp Is this the main precip from the clipper? Yeah but I doubt it holds over the mountains...clippers tend to have brief 3-6 hour pulses too which are hard to predict, they can cause one place to 5-6 inches and downstream someone gets 1-2...remember the one event in the 01-02 winter went crazy over BWI/DCA and then weakened by the time it reached PHL/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yeah but I doubt it holds over the mountains...clippers tend to have brief 3-6 hour pulses too which are hard to predict, they can cause one place to 5-6 inches and downstream someone gets 1-2...remember the one event in the 01-02 winter went crazy over BWI/DCA and then weakened by the time it reached PHL/NYC I don't want to remember that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The radar doesn't look bad http://www.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp Is this the main precip from the clipper? When you click on NWS radar most of it is in the 5-10 dbz with a few pockets up to 20 dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z NAM actually shows a solid 3 hour light snowfall. Still only comes to about 0.10" but the precip looks healthier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 this water vapor looks good with the brighter greens passing right over NJ - we have already clouded up - also dayton ohio is reporting heavy snow http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/satellite-wv?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 this water vapor looks good with the brighter greens passing right over NJ - we have already clouded up - also dayton ohio is reporting heavy snow http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/satellite-wv?play=1 Models are drying the precip up as it heads east from the mountains, we've seen this all too often if we don't have a corresponding storm to re-develop off the coast and throw moisture back. Downsloping can be a killer in a dry airmass like this. If I get over an inch somehow, I'll be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yeah but I doubt it holds over the mountains...clippers tend to have brief 3-6 hour pulses too which are hard to predict, they can cause one place to 5-6 inches and downstream someone gets 1-2...remember the one event in the 01-02 winter went crazy over BWI/DCA and then weakened by the time it reached PHL/NYC I think something like this will happen again. Probably less dramatic though. The 12z NAM sounding of PIT initialized too dry in the lower-levels compared to actual sounding, this morning. However, 12z soundings out OKX and IAD were drier than what 12z NAM initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 RGEM gives NYC about 5 hours of light snow. Not sure if some of it is virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 snow is already reaching the ground out in western PA http://kamala.cod.edu/pa/latest.asus41.CTP.KCTP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 snow is already reaching the ground out in western PA http://kamala.cod.edu/pa/latest.asus41.CTP.KCTP.html The dew points in a lot of those places are in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 heavy snow for 2 hours now in central ohio - seems like the northern part of this storm is holding together and not alot of virga in front of it http://kamala.cod.edu/oh/latest.asus41.CLE.KCLE.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 snow is already reaching the ground out in western PA http://kamala.cod.edu/pa/latest.asus41.CTP.KCTP.html Forecasts always underdo virga potential in these cold situations...its usually when you're mid20s-low30s that the long duration virga periods occur...often times once you're dropping your temps teens to lower 20s the precip tends to reach the ground faster than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 heavy snow for 2 hours now in central ohio - seems like the northern part of this storm is holding together and not alot of virga in front of it http://kamala.cod.edu/oh/latest.asus41.CLE.KCLE.html Radar deeper at this point than modeled . The key is can it hold once over the mountains , they sometimes like to dry as theyas they come over . prob check state college radar later to see if those returns are as impressive once east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 ASSUMING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 12 AND 15:1 (CLIMATOLOGY IS CLOSER TO 11:1)...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW SOME PLACES IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY TO APPROACH 3 INCHES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY BANDING COULD FORM IN THIS AREA...AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE AXIS OF THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WHICH COULD ADD TO SNOW TOTALS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING. MT Holly . Mayb some Ocean Cty pp can get to the 3 mark . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The 12z NAM PIT intial sounding on top, compared to the actual PIT sounding on the bottom. The NAM was too dry, in the lower-levels. Not the same further east though.: Actual 12z sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Check out the radar out of Pitt. Good to see the heavier echos expanding northward a bit. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=PBZ&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 ASSUMING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 12 AND 15:1 (CLIMATOLOGY IS CLOSER TO 11:1)...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW SOME PLACES IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY TO APPROACH 3 INCHES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY BANDING COULD FORM IN THIS AREA...AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE AXIS OF THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WHICH COULD ADD TO SNOW TOTALS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING. MT Holly . Mayb some Ocean Cty pp can get to the 3 mark . you have to watch this closely - seems the northern part of this system is a little stronger then originally progged and the southern part doesn't look so good so far http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast-region/weather-radar?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 you have to watch this closely - seems the northern part of this system is a little stronger then originally progged and the southern part doesn't look so good so far http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast-region/weather-radar?play=1 We just have to hope that the mountains don't break down a lot of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We just have to hope that the mountains don't break down a lot of the precip. Mountains do a lot of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 what is really encouraging with this radar and it shows it well the northern half of the precip shield is solid the southern part south of mason dixon line is more broken up and the movement of the heavier echoes is moving right toward us - the mountains is the wild card but the stronger the precip shield less breakup http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 what is really encouraging with this radar and it shows it well the northern half of the precip shield is solid the southern part south of mason dixon line is more broken up and the movement of the heavier echoes is moving right toward us - the mountains is the wild card but the stronger the precip shield less breakup http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html It looks like a "Wall of Snow" is forming on the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Take a look at the water vapor loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html You can see how the best moisture is transfering from over us down to VA. Could be a sign that the coastal is already beginning to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It looks like a "Wall of Snow" is forming on the last few frames. wow the last time I heard that phrase used was just before the 1/22/05 event - Alan Kasper was on the air that saturday morning on 101.5 and said a "wall of snow" is approaching NJ" http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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