WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Maybe it should be 1-2 minus and not 1-2+? Lol doesn't seem possible The plus symbol below the 1-2" is the location of the forecasted snowfall, not 1-2"+ Haha what an idiot I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It's been so cold the past few days that I still have traces of the inch snowfall from Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Stop quoting your girlfriend. it wasn't his girlfriend...that was his hand talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It's been so cold the past few days that I still have traces of the inch snowfall from Monday. Yeah same here. I remember in February 2007, the 2" of sleet/ice that we had on Valentine's Day stayed on the ground for 2 whole weeks after the storm. It's all about temperatures at this time of year. Once we hit March 1st, the sun angle becomes a major factor in snowpack maintenance, which is why NYC's history shows clearly that snow cover usually dies by about March 7th-10th even in the snowiest of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 NAM drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 NAM drier The models are really catching on to the speed of this system, it doesn't surprise me the QPF numbers are going down, this is pretty much across the board, not just here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 3 hours of light snow on the RGEM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 3 hours of light snow on the RGEM . I say we just all root for the 0.1 at NYC at this point, gives us something to stay excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This was the GGEM on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 SREF's are basically treating this like a clipper. Snow falls apart in E PA and NYC is lucky to see an hour of flurries. WWA in S Jersey may fail miserably. The models are really catching on to the speed of this system, it doesn't surprise me the QPF numbers are going down, this is pretty much across the board, not just here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This was the GGEM on Monday Just goes to show you that you should look at the overall patterns and not just models. Euro also bombed big time on this. Fast progressive patterns with no blocking usually lead to crappy sheared systems for us, or cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This event/non event has featured some of the worst hype forecasting I've ever heard. All along there has been the northern stream kicker and high pressure zipping out ahead of the system/s, a sure signal that this was going to be next to nothing and zip right on out to the east. Little moisture, hardly any vertical velocity, I just don't see how anyone can be going for 1-3" with this. Even anything over 1". Frankly, I'd be surprised if more than 2 stations reported an inch. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The whole thing though about that image....It doesn't even make meteorological sense. The placement of the SLP is bizarre. I think the one lesson to learn from this event...always be skeptical of an EC snow event when you have a meandering SLP over the Great Lakes. They hardly ever interact with southern energy in a promising way. This was the GGEM on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just goes to show you that you should look at the overall patterns and not just models. Euro also bombed big time on this. Fast progressive patterns with no blocking usually lead to crappy sheared systems for us, or cutters. I wouldn't say that. We can and have gotten good snows without blocking and progressive patterns. I think the bigger problem is the lack of a southern stream, there's no moisture to tap. We've seen significant overrunners with all of this cold air around in the past, but the La Nada has really allowed for a dry pattern throughout the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The Euro actually did well aside from one horribly bogus juicy run. I would say it is many of us who did badly in paying attention and jumping on a bandwagon of snow over one Euro run. The Euro was perfectly clear for two and a half days about what was happening. It had one bad run. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This event/non event has featured some of the worst hype forecasting I've ever heard. All along there has been the northern stream kicker and high pressure zipping out ahead of the system/s, a sure signal that this was going to be next to nothing and zip right on out to the east. Little moisture, hardly any vertical velocity, I just don't see how anyone can be going for 1-3" with this. Even anything over 1". Frankly, I'd be surprised if more than 2 stations reported an inch. WX/PT Some mets on t.v were talking about plowable snow for this Friday. The whole thing though about that image....It doesn't even make meteorological sense. The placement of the SLP is bizarre. I think the one lesson to learn from this event...always be skeptical of an EC snow event when you have a meandering SLP over the Great Lakes. They hardly ever interact with southern energy in a promising way. GGEM,Ukie, GFS and Euro showed a moderate snowstorm on many runs. Euro showed a big snowstorm 96 hours out. 12+ for the whole area on the 0z Tuesday run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 it's not good when the thread has more pages than the storm has flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS has snow showers. It will certainly look like winter tomorrow with everything covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I wouldn't say that. We can and have gotten good snows without blocking and progressive patterns. I think the bigger problem is the lack of a southern stream, there's no moisture to tap. We've seen significant overrunners with all of this cold air around in the past, but the La Nada has really allowed for a dry pattern throughout the CONUS. We've had big storms dominated by the northern stream before. 1/22/05 and 2/78 being examples. In a fast flow like this, we just can't get a powerful enough vort max to come through, and the fast flow and lack of blocking prevents whatever does come from digging. The poor state of the NAO keeps the flow over the N Atlantic progressive too. Just not a good overall pattern for us getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 it's not good when the thread has more pages than the storm has flakes. You have a winning sense of humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Some mets on t.v were talking about plowable snow for this Friday. GGEM,Ukie, GFS and Euro showed a moderate snowstorm on many runs. Euro showed a big snowstorm 96 hours out. 12+ for the whole area on the 0z Tuesday run. Agree. Euro consistently wanted to give us a good snowfall until yesterday. Even had one run 96 hrs out with close to a foot. Gfs was the first to drop that idea and has held firm. Gfs has closed the gap in performance, and frankly the euro has been very shaky in the 3-5 day range. Last week it had that burp run for costal inside 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think I'll be waiting for the S/W to be onshore before even expecting anything next time. Much less disappointment, better accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Dusting to an inch at best. I think we still see about 5 hundredths of an inch of precip, 20 to 1 ratios, that still and inch of snow. Idc, it'll bring our snow depth just below two inches and it'll fill the gaps where the snow evaped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think I'll be waiting for the S/W to be onshore before even expecting anything next time. Much less disappointment, better accuracy. Just look for hints. I don't know if it's going to happen, but on the EURO today at 240 hours, there was a much better look to the overall pattern. You had a little ridging in the North Atlantic out ahead of an east coast storm which was moving OTS and then a system dropping se-ward into the Rockies or western Plains states following it. You had a much rounder better carved out eastern trough, really a much better look than what we've had so far. We shall see. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It's going to snow tomorrow and tomorrow night for most of the NYC crew. This is all we can ask for in this first installment of winter 2012-2013. It's not over yet.....don't give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just look for hints. I don't know if it's going to happen, but on the EURO today at 240 hours, there was a much better look to the overall pattern. You had a little ridging in the North Atlantic out ahead of an east coast storm which was moving OTS and then a system dropping se-ward into the Rockies or western Plains states following it. You had a much rounder better carved out eastern trough, really a much better look than what we've had so far. We shall see. WX/PT I have a good feeling about the first 2 weeks of February for cold and stormy conditions. CPC has colder than normal conditions with above normal precip in our area. MJO on the Euro is going into 8 and then 1. It's going to snow tomorrow and tomorrow night for most of the NYC crew. This is all we can ask for in this first installment of winter 2012-2013. It's not over yet.....don't give up yet. Voice of reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS has snow showers. It will certainly look like winter tomorrow with everything covered. I agree, but I'd rather clear my sidewalk with a shovel than a broom . Some snow is better than no snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 My 3 inch Monday is down to an inch. Agreed this is going to be a terrible fail. (I wasn't willing to throw in the towel till now but here is the towel) I still think if I could get 3 inches Monday in the snow dome of the metro someone will eek out 2 inches. With ratios what they will be it doesn't take much. The majority of my 3 inches fell in 30 min Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Upton halved their forecast, less than an inch for most of the area; highest on the east end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 i don't know why I'm still looking but we'd be lucky if we could even whiten the ground based on the 6z nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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