Juliancolton Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Keep in mind that there's more to ratios than temps. Could be too cold or too little forcing for anything more than a trace with these negligible QPFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 After running in 10-15F weather for the past few days, 50 will feel awesome. I do agree the snow will be nice, but this cold with a bare ground so far has been a waste.The next trough swings back in Friday AM . Wed Thrs , may follow what we just this past SAT - SUN , its normal in between troughs .Then you " hope " The first 10 days of FEB can yield something . But too far out to look at modeled systems seriously . MJO , PNA look good , hopefully we can the southern jet to break through early Feb , but if you cant get the NAO neg , you can wrap up on the east coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Keep in mind that there's more to ratios than temps. Could be too cold or too little forcing for anything more than a trace with these negligible QPFs. Think models take dry air into account , think CNJ , can squeeze out 2 inches . MT HOLLY seemed to think so this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Are you taking in to account the ratios? I think areas south and east of NYC could see an inch or two. I'm taking into account the amount of dry air in place combined with the low precip rates. We're talking about 0.10" over about 6 hours. A coating to inch maybe more out be me as it looks like western zones get 0.10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Upton has 1-2 inches in the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this storm is a non event for us. the wettest models barely get us above .1" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this storm is a non event for us. the wettest models barely get us above .1" liquid Winter of wrong trends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We only had about 0.1" of liquid with Monday's event, ended up with around 3" of snow. 850's are even colder for this event. NAM has 850's around -15, last time it was around -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Maybe we get one snow flake tomorrow...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We only had about 0.1" of liquid with Monday's event, ended up with around 3" of snow. 850's are even colder for this event. NAM has 850's around -15, last time it was around -10. I will wait and see what happens tomorrow before giving up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I will wait and see what happens tomorrow before giving up. And everyone said that we won't even see a flake, not even a dusting for that event. Sounds very similar to what this thread has been like lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I had a suspicion that this one would fail, but for the wrong reasons I guess since at first I thought it would be a warm system. This is a heavily Nina-favored pattern, and it's just hard to get anything meaningful from these ridiculously fast and progressive patterns unless you have some kind of a block to the north like in 2010-11. Either that or you have to luck out with perfect timing of shortwaves and amplitudes. We have another shot early next month at snow, but again we have to hope the pattern slows down or it's hard for me to see much happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Craig Allen "Based on 12z nam, gfs and rgem, we're likely to see anything from a dusting to an inch or 3. Nam and gfs qpf values are < .10". Normally, that converts to about 1" but the air is cold and snow will be subject to the 'fluff factor'- light and powdery- so the conversion might be as much as 15 or 20:1.The rgem qpf is a little more robust, developing the offshore system a little faster and throwing back .15" to .25" which could tally up to about 3" especially eastern suburbs." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I will wait and see what happens tomorrow before giving up. You`re favorite NAM sim radar looks good for CNJ , was waiting for u to post it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You`re favorite NAM sim radar looks good for CNJ , was waiting for u to post it . I couldn't post it since I was at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Here's the deal...the ratios will be about half of what they were with the last storm and last storm it actually was modeled on NAM sim radar a few times for a band to move in through Philadelphia and be very heavy. This storm it does not model that, just a bit more of an expansive area of light snow, no heavy banding this time....with the lower ratios. This time I'm looking for a widespread coating to 1" or so but not many amounts above 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Hopefully, this puts NYC above the inch accumulation level for December and January so we just make it out of the 97-98 and 94-95 basement. Lowest Snowfall Dec-Jan since 1990. 2012-2013...0.4..so far 2011-2012...4.3 2007-2008..2.9 2006-2007...2.6 2001-2002...3.5 1997-1998...0.5 1996-1997...4.4 1994-1995...0.2 1992-1993...1.9 1991-1992....2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Would not surprise me at all if this was just a virga storm from I-80 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Hopefully, this puts NYC above the inch accumulation level for December and January so we just make it out of the 97-98 and 94-95 basement. Lowest Snowfall Dec-Jan since 1990. 2012-2013...0.4..so far 2011-2012...4.3 2007-2008..2.9 2006-2007...2.6 2001-2002...3.5 1997-1998...0.5 1996-1997...4.4 1994-1995...0.2 1992-1993...1.9 1991-1992....2. Awful, just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Awful, just awful. Don't forget 2006-2008 was followed up by 2009-2011 which had great Dec-Jan. And 95-96 was sandwhiched between another bad stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Don't forget 2006-2008 was followed up by 2009-2011 which had great Dec-Jan. And 95-96 was sandwhiched between another bad stretch. 93-94 was a fabulous winter also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 93-94 was a fabulous winter also. The sooner people realize that a multi-year stretch without a KU is the norm around here the better off they will be. 3 KU's in one year is like winning the lottery three times in one year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Hr 30 euro looks a little more robust then 00z . Hopefully it does not get sheared out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Hr 36 light snow for everyone. Looks euro will be sim to nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Euro about .1 for NYC. Looks identical to 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 How does C NJ around freehold look? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We only had about 0.1" of liquid with Monday's event, ended up with around 3" of snow. 850's are even colder for this event. NAM has 850's around -15, last time it was around -10. clearly you don't know enough about ratios to post about them. there are multiple factors which determine snow to liquid ratios and just looking at 850 temps won't tell you enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 How does C NJ around freehold look? Rossi looks close to .15 ishSaw TTN .16 - so I am guessing you can head east with that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I will wait and see what happens tomorrow before giving up. with that logic what's the point of looking at any event past day 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 clearly you don't know enough about ratios to post about them. there are multiple factors which determine snow to liquid ratios and just looking at 850 temps won't tell you enough You're right. Never said I was a snow ratio guru. Most of the time I ask others. So what's your opinion on the ratios with this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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