easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 15 and under is always recalled as a terrible winter...no matter how cold. yes i would say if either philly or new york get less than 15 it will be awful. If feb turns out cold like some are saying we may end up winter only a degree or 2 above average, snowfall is so hard to predict, although many have said feb will be our snowiest month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 we have 5.1" of snow so far this season...The least amounts before February 1st are... 0.2" 1994-95 0.5" 1997-98 0.6" 1918-19 1.1" 1899-00 1.6" 1913-14 1.8" 1972-73 1.9" 1992-93 2.0" 1875-76 2.0" 1949-50 2.1" 1900-01 2.2" 1991-92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Just a matter of time. If you believe in the law of averages like I do.. then we will get our MECS or HECS by the end of this winter or next.... Sandy was the ultimate Hecs........Two in one season? Hope so...Would not bet on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Its crazy how close we've come the last 20 years to pretty much owning the top 10 snowless winters...91-92 I think entered March at about 3 inches, 94-95 was saved by one storm, 97-98 saved at the last minute by a fluke storm, I think we had 0.5 inches as of 3/20, 07-08 also looked dead in the water til the surprise overrunning event. I think eventually Central Park will have a winter with 1 inch or less of snow. Funny how those last minute of flukish events have saved those winters from being snowless. If not for the early Nov event. I would be like Philly at 1.1" thus far. If we do end up similar to last year, one can only wonder if we end up the same next year, with a triple sombrero. 1996-97 thru 1998-99 was the worst stretch. Worse than 89-90 thru 91-92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah, I'm not talking about getting this winter up average in the cities, but if NYC could get more than 10" on the season it would be out of the "god aweful" ranks, IMHO. Central Park has had 9 winters with less than 10". I think this winter will easily finish above average in central park...two small events next week, and then early February looks ripe for a KU given the west based NAO left behind by the stratospheric warming. I can't believe people can look at this pattern and think we're going for futility records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 we have 5.1" of snow so far this season...The least amounts before February 1st are... 0.2" 1994-95 0.5" 1997-98 0.6" 1918-19 1.1" 1899-00 1.6" 1913-14 1.8" 1972-73 1.9" 1992-93 2.0" 1875-76 2.0" 1949-50 2.1" 1900-01 2.2" 1991-92 I want to say 99-00 was on pace to make it to February with only a trace before the 1/25 surprise saved us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Sandy was the ultimate Hecs........Two in one season? Hope so...Would not bet on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Im not referring to non-winter storms. But good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 15 and under is always recalled as a terrible winter...no matter how cold. NYC has had 30 such winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 NYC has had 30 such winters. Yep...and they were *all* terrible...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I want to say 99-00 was on pace to make it to February with only a trace before the 1/25 surprise saved us. 1965-66 was similar...It set the record for the latest measurable snowfall that was broken in 1972-73 on 1/29 I believe...1877-78 had a trace or 0.1" going into 1/31...It got an 8" storm from 1/31 to 2/1...Nothing after it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yep...and they were *all* terrible...lol. Well, even two 5" events could push the park up to 15.1", and thus out of the "terrible" category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I think this winter will easily finish above average in central park.... Midway through last winter I wrote the same thing...can it finish well...absolutely...but looking at where we are now, basic climatology, and just simple weather history...it will be quite an uphill climb. You do not get four storms of 6 inches in Central Park in a 60 day period (20 of which are in March) very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 NYC has had 30 such winters. and some of them had snowfall in November and or October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 00z gfs going to be a lot further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS is also really cold through 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hr 129 low in tenn valley. Plenty cold here. Snow up to pitt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hr 132 dca getting mod snow. Light snow to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hr 135 light to mod snow in area. Dca heavy snow. Looks a lot like 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hr 141 snow continues. Low over eastern nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hr 144 still snowing. Real nice run for NYC south. Qpf never makes it to sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hr 135 light to mod snow in area. Dca heavy snow. Looks a lot like 12z euro Its a great bowling ball scenerio , it sniffs out the low level cold air and takes the southern route , the path of least resistance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hr 144 still snowing. Real nice run for NYC south. Qpf never makes it to sne I feel comfortable that I have some room here for a north trend. We know how these SW flow events go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Really just a 2-4" event for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Really just a 2-4" event for NYC You will be snowing with 850`s bewteen minus 10 and minus 15 . May do a tad better than that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I feel comfortable that I have some room here for a north trend. We know how these SW flow events go... This really is starting to feel like a Miller B redeveloper to me, GFS still not resolving which low center it wants to blow up but I'm betting some ensemble members are going to blow up that southern low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Its a great bowling ball scenerio , it sniffs out the low level cold air and takes the southern route , the path of least resistance . It's not a bowling ball scenario....I see no closed h5 low bowling its way east....it's called a re-developer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like Euro and GFS swapping solutions in an Evil Spock parallel universe kind of way... Judging Euro from AccuWx PPV text showing snow to rain for NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 New euro is way North with the track. Now takes it over Philly or just North witch needless to say is not good for NYC.. Looks like temps rise over 10c in 6 hours!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 That stinks. Sounds similar to the deluge we had in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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