PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 HR 54 0z NAM .10 - .25 to nyc HR 60 18Z NAM .10 - .25 LINE WAS TO AC , GREAT JUMP NORTH - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So close. Another tick northwest and we will be in the game. Don't worry. Looks like the sampling has finally made the computer models realize what's truly going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We just need a slightly earlier phase and then we could be in the low end of a moderate snow event. 1-3" is still my call. Would love to see the 0z models even more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 wow that is significantly further north... lets see if it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 have to remember ratios and every single flake sticks this time roads will be covered very quickly along with everything else unless its too windy anyone have a handle on the winds expected ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 HR 54 0Z THE .25- .50 LINE TO AC AT HR 60 18Z IT RAN JUST NORTH OF CAPE HAT . pretty good jump in hrs " IF" THERE`S ANOTHER JUMP IT MAYBE FOUND IN TOMORROWS 12Z SOLUTION . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The bump is so big that DC is now .25" on the nose on the NAM. NYC is .09" Philly is .16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The bump is so big that DC is now .25" on the nose on the NAM. NYC is .09" Philly is .16" That .25 line gets to AC . was off NC coast at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Not bad for a model that was the furthest south just hours ago. Hopefully we see more NW jumps tonight from the rest of the 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 we still have plenty of time for this to keep trending north this is not progged to start here till friday evening maybe even delayed till closer to midnight - looks like some folks here will be pulling an all nighter here friday night.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Some slight changes with the energy and orientation of the trough can make this a half-decent event for a good number of us, and such changes are certainly possible before the storm starts up. Certainly won't be any kind of major event, but a nice refresher for those who got snow on MLK night and something to show for the cold snap we have now. Hopefully models become more amped tonight and we at least get a nice swipe from the developing low for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 we still have plenty of time for this to keep trending north this is not progged to start here till friday evening maybe even delayed till closer to midnight - looks like some folks here will be pulling an all nighter here friday night.............. I think it will continue going ever so slightly NW, enough for sure to maybe help Suffolk Co but I'm not so sure we get it enough to see widespread crooked number amounts over NYC...one thing that really needs to be watched with this whole setup is if convection starts breaking out over TN/AL/GA/SC in the FZRA late tomorrow night, that happens and we could see a situation where whatever phase we do have falls apart....right now not many models show that but some hint at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think it will continue going ever so slightly NW, enough for sure to maybe help Suffolk Co but I'm not so sure we get it enough to see widespread crooked number amounts over NYC...one thing that really needs to be watched with this whole setup is if convection starts breaking out over TN/AL/GA/SC in the FZRA late tomorrow night, that happens and we could see a situation where whatever phase we do have falls apart....right now not many models show that but some hint at it. You mean like " shadowing " and theres a jumping of the centers over the top ? and we in the sinking air ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 850 low seems to far west for the low to jump and go. I do not expect a great snowfall for the NYC metro, but maybe a one to three inch snowfall, and up to four over eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 LOL, look at the high RES NAM fro 48-54 hours...it almost looks like it purposely avoids NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 LOL, look at the high RES NAM fro 48-54 hours...it almost looks like it purposely avoids NYC Because of the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You mean like " shadowing " and theres a jumping of the centers over the top ? and we in the sinking air ? It would likely cause a separate low to form somewhere south and want to stay separate from whatever energy comes in from the north. The whole system would be biased south then and shear out/stay weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0z GFS actually looks slightly worse than previous runs based on precip... blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 At last we can put this one to bed. 1-3" max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS thru 42 , looks similar to its 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0z GFS actually looks slightly worse than previous runs based on precip... blah Not what we wanted to see, for sure. RGEM wasn't impressive either. Starting to nudge more into the "minor nuisance" category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS thru 42 , looks similar to its 18z It's over dude. It's worse than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Because of the transfer. Yeah, and guessing where thats gonna occur is impossible, the 12/29 event could give us an idea though although that primary was cutting way further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's over dude. It's worse than 18z It's almost the exact same precip for NYC as the 18z run. .10" on the 0z. .12" on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm still puzzled by people being surprised by this dry run. Just look at the pattern...it was pretty clear that a MECS was not in the cards all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's over dude. It's worse than 18z It's over dude. It's worse than 18z OVER ? Have you been reading MY POSTS in the last 3 days ? its a 3 to 4 max system south and east of the city . What were you expecting . .10 - .20 qpf at 20 to 1 ratios , Thats what I thnk happens , not just today , but been writing that for the last 3 DAYS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's the best storm for NYC metro since early November 1-3" so not so bad. With this generally cold pattern that should last into February who knows we still can get a few decent ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It the best storm for NYC metro since early November 1-3" so not so bad. yeah. someone pinch me. i must be dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Every run in the last 3 days ( outside Tues overamped 0z Euro ) and ( last nites NAM 18 z whiff ) for the most part have really been in line . Negate those 2 , haven`t the rest have really been .10 - .15 NYC .15 - .20 towards Philly ? Looks pretty uniform too me . Positives 700 mb will be minus 12 850 mb will be minus 20 - surface temps wil b in the teens . That column is a freezer through and through . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'll take it. Let's hope that February is SO MUCH better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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