IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12Z GEFS total accumulated 84 hour precip suggests some areas could get 0.25 with high ratios 3 - 5 inches is not out of the question if this run verifies http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep72084.gif My guess is that there are a few more members this go around showing something which isn't saying all that much. Waiting on the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 My guess is that there are a few more members this go around showing something which isn't saying all that much. Waiting on the individual members. No big hits, only some glancing blows. It was posted in the New England thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hr 54 12z euro looks the same as 00z. Light snow from northern Michigan to ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hr 60 light snow up to ewr. Preciep looks a little further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 This will be a drier run then 00z. We get kind of screwed between the northern stream and developing costal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 .10 + for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 1-3 is a good call right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm still sticking with my call from days ago lol. 1-2" with max areas up to 3" south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This will be a drier run then 00z. We get kind of screwed between the northern stream and developing costal storm This is what happens a lot when you have a miller B that forms off the Delmarva and points north. You either really need a big phase so that the coastal takes over sooner and intensifies quicker like some the Euro and UKMET runs have snown, or you need the main low coming from the lakes to stay stronger longer. The low coming from the mid-west dies out before the heavier precip reaches us and the coastal gets going too far OTS. I would say 1" would be generous at this point except for Suffolk County and points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro had been pretty bad this winter in day 4 and 5 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro had been pretty bad this winter in day 4 and 5 range. Euro has been dry with some events. Even some events it had too wet (ended up mostly dry due to virga). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The significant storm idea is off the table. The question is if places, especially coastal areas, can see a decent advisory level event. I'm leaning against that now, but I could see how it still happens. We wouldn't need too much of a NW bump and we've seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 2- 4 . and still 3 days out , so that higher range still in reach from the City South and East with just the slightest earlier interaction between the southern and northern features . ( which will not be totally ironed out until its in the plains. tomorrow ) Great temps snowing close to 20 degrees . As it stand the models are coming into agreement . .10 - .20 qpf city south and east minus 15 air and surface temps really cold . The 4 inch number is still very much in reach . Better than a whiff , so gotta feel better than you did 24 hrs ago . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro had been pretty bad this winter in day 4 and 5 range. The Euro is just odd, it takes the low from Minnesota at hr 48 and redevelops it just SE of Cape Cod by hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Best guess for TTN: 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 2- 4 . and still 3 days out , so that higher range still in reach from the City South and East with just the slightest earlier interaction between the southern and northern features . ( which will not be totally ironed out until its in the plains. tomorrow ) Great temps snowing close to 20 degrees . As it stand the models are coming into agreement . .10 - .20 qpf city south and east minus 15 air and surface temps really cold . The 4 inch number is still very much in reach . Better than a whiff , so gotta feel better than you did 24 hrs ago . Personally I think there is a much greater chance of a complete whiff than 3" of snow. If I lived in Suffolk County I would be expecting 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 .10 + for everyone LGA: .12" EWR: .12" ISP: .16" BDR: .12" FOK: .18" PHL: .16" RIC: .18" DCA: .13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 UKMET to me looks pretty ok for DC area that makes me feel just peachy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Euro is just odd, it takes the low from Minnesota at hr 48 and redevelops it just SE of Cape Cod by hour 72. I'm referring to the solution it had two days ago. We are at day 3 now off this run. Dec 27 was suppose to give Chicago a snowstorm. Turn out to be a sne snowstorm. Just has been awful outside day 3. It's not usually like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 LGA: .12" EWR: .12" ISP: .16" BDR: .12" FOK: .18" PHL: .16" RIC: .18" DCA: .13" Thanks alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 UKIE/GFS/EURO are all very, very similar now with their total precip for the area. That's the top 3 globals with nearly identical numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 UKIE/GFS/EURO are all very, very similar now with their total precip for the area. That's the top 3 globals with nearly identical numbers. Assuming area wide average of .15" and 12:1 ratios that's still 1-2" area wide and that is probably generous. I would expect that the precip shield will probably remain un-organized until it's east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Personally I think there is a much greater chance of a complete whiff than 3" of snow. If I lived in Suffolk County I would be expecting 1-2". Lotta 3`s on Long Island out of .10 on Monday nite . This prob a tad , a tad wetter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The ratios won't be as good as they were during the inverted trough. But 12-15:1 seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lotta 3`s on Long Island out of .10 on Monday nite . This prob a tad , a tad wetter . Do you think the ratios will be the same as we had on the Monday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lotta 3`s on Long Island out of .10 on Monday nite . This prob a tad , a tad wetter . This is more organized and potent then Monday night. Will be no shut outs with this or big diff is accumulation. Best call is 1-3 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lotta 3`s on Long Island out of .10 on Monday nite . This prob a tad , a tad wetter . I may joke around a lot about the interior cashing in and you guys getting nothing but I'm happy you guys got your snow the other night. I didn't even get flurries. I've already had close to 10" this season and if you count November it's closer to 14". Because of my plans Friday night I'd rather just pass this up all together and wait for a better threat that appears to be possible in about 10-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro warms us up early next week. Then we reload at the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro warms us up early next week. Then we reload at the end of next week Think its only 3 days max between troughs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro warms us up early next week. Then we reload at the end of next week If we had some decent blocking we'd have another miller B threat next week. With no blocking the high in SE Canada slides eastward the system cuts with nothing to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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