ag3 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS precip:LGA: .15"EWR: .13"ISP: .24"BDR: .19"FOK: .27"PHL: .11"RIC: .16"DCA: .10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z UKIE is similar to the gfs. Maybe a bit more precip. Can only see hours 66-72 total precip for now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Those who threw in the towel last night may look silly by the end of today's model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ya precip from previous frame probably tacks on another 0.1 which would be over 0.25. But I guess we'll have to wait to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Those who threw in the towel last night may look silly by the end of today's model runs. it's called model hugging...it can make you crazy if you believe every new run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Usually we seem to do 12-15 to 1 when the -10C 850 mb line is nearby like the models are showing. Ya I'm thinking if we end up at 15-1 we could do pretty nicely with only a qtr to third of an inch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hopefully the Euro trends more amplified today, and then we're able to establish a trend. I could see some NW shifts before the storm, but not enough for a major event unless the phase and amplification occurs a lot sooner. I could see a high-end advisory type event if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS precip:LGA: .15" EWR: .13" ISP: .24" BDR: .19" FOK: .27" PHL: .11" RIC: .16" DCA: .10" those numbers seem to make it more of 1-3 event for most of the area even with the higher ratios...do these amounts take into account the amount lost to virga which will probably be an issue? as for one model run...yes relax, because everyone discounts the models when they do not show snow so until a few runs in a row show the event actually looking like its coming then lets not just assume we are getting anything at this point. Just be consistent and not rally around the models that show the storm. Last weeks non storm people were tossing the GFS because it did not show the snow and it turned out to be right. It could be right this time or it could be wrong but still tons of uncertainty with this storm given the flip flopping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Those who threw in the towel last night may look silly by the end of today's model runs. We're seeing that inevitable tick NW with the coastal I felt we'd see, the 500mb setup seemed the coastal should be more NW, but in order to get that real major jump we're gonna have to get a marked change in the phasing of those 2 systems from the NRN/SRN branches over the OH Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 700mb temps around -10 to-12 for the duration of the storm in terms of ratios The forecast soundings are a little colder with JFK at -15.8 during the snow Friday night which looks like 1-3 range based on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 those numbers seem to make it more of 1-3 event for most of the area even with the higher ratios...do these amounts take into account the amount lost to virga which will probably be an issue? as for one model run...yes relax, because everyone discounts the models when they do not show snow so until a few runs in a row show the event actually looking like its coming then lets not just assume we are getting anything at this point. Just be consistent and not rally around the models that show the storm. Last weeks non storm people were tossing the GFS because it did not show the snow and it turned out to be right. It could be right this time or it could be wrong but still tons of uncertainty with this storm given the flip flopping Models take in account of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It would be funny if the models came back to that really wet solution they had a couple days ago, which would be a total slap in everyone's face. I think if we get 1-3" it'll be a success so fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 UKMET to me looks pretty ok for DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The coastal is actually in a really good position on the GFS, it just gets going too late. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It would be funny if the models came back to that really wet solution they had a couple days ago, which would be a total slap in everyone's face. I think if we get 1-3" it'll be a success so fingers crossed. If we can get the initial wave to come in more amped up it will force redevelopment closer to the coast. With such an arctic airmass in place I doubt we would have any mixing issues even at the coast unless the low cut into Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We're seeing that inevitable tick NW with the coastal I felt we'd see, the 500mb setup seemed the coastal should be more NW, but in order to get that real major jump we're gonna have to get a marked change in the phasing of those 2 systems from the NRN/SRN branches over the OH Valley Agreed i by no means think we will see the huge hit the euro showed a few days ago but i think a general 2-4 isn't out of the question which is plenty for this snow weenie all i care is to see the ground covered in white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We're seeing that inevitable tick NW with the coastal I felt we'd see, the 500mb setup seemed the coastal should be more NW, but in order to get that real major jump we're gonna have to get a marked change in the phasing of those 2 systems from the NRN/SRN branches over the OH Valley Agreed i by no means think we will see the huge hit the euro showed a few days ago but i think a general 2-4 isn't out of the question which is plenty for this snow weenie all i care is to see the ground covered in white. I would LOVE to get that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It would be funny if the models came back to that really wet solution they had a couple days ago, which would be a total slap in everyone's face. I think if we get 1-3" it'll be a success so fingers crossed. It's tough to do much better than 1-3 or 2-4 with these fast moving clippers so we would be happy just to get a light event like one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I know Ray gona flip but we snow in the teens its minus 15 at 5k feet , gotta see 15 to 1 ratios with that QPF . I wouldn't say you have to, remember lift plays a part too, but you'll get above 10:1 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 what is the time frame looking like? seems like a very short duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 those numbers seem to make it more of 1-3 event for most of the area even with the higher ratios...do these amounts take into account the amount lost to virga which will probably be an issue? Models *should* take virga into account in some fashion. Otherwise they'd always be way off. The EC from last week, when it was way too far NW with the precip, I don't think it was a problem with it "counting" virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Only light snow on the GGEM. Moderate snow just south of NYC in NJ. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The coastal is actually in a really good position on the GFS, it just gets going too late. Good trends. Look at the 2 shortwaves, one over IN, one over VA. For us to have a real shot, we need those two to phase, and for the trough to dig more. Hopefully the Euro today shows a better solution, that way we can say we have a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Only light snow on the GGEM. Moderate snow just south of NYC in NJ. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Probably only a six or seven hour event at most, with some of that being only virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Look at the 2 shortwaves, one over IN, one over VA. For us to have a real shot, we need those two to phase, and for the trough to dig more. Hopefully the Euro today shows a better solution, that way we can say we have a trend. It's still possible. I still think that with such an arctic airmass in place that even with a really amped up solution we would still be almost all if not all snow. Would be a much longer duration event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well the Canadian gives us nothing so lets not get worked up yet only the GFS has us even at an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well the Canadian gives us nothing so lets not get worked up yet only the GFS has us even at an inch Wrong. Gfs, euro, and ukmet all give us a accumulating snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's still possible. I still think that with such an arctic airmass in place that even with a really amped up solution we would still be almost all if not all snow. Would be a much longer duration event as well. We would have a shot at a more amplified solution if the clipper wasn't following so close on the heels of the storm tomorrow. There isn't enough spacing between the two shortwaves for the Friday night clipper to dig much more than it is showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We would have a shot at a more amplified solution if the clipper wasn't following so close on the heels of the storm tomorrow. There isn't enough spacing between the two shortwaves for the Friday night clipper to dig much more than it is showing now. It's more a product of the flow being too fast. Once the S/W is completely onshore in the next 6-12 hours it's very possible that things will take another shift. More northern stream action should allow it to dig slightly more, slow down everything a bit. Still a chance that we get a big phase and this thing goes boom like the Euro did a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12Z GEFS total accumulated 84 hour precip suggests some areas could get 0.25 with high ratios 3 - 5 inches is not out of the question if this run verifies http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep72084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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