WeatherGod Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looking for the Ukie to score a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 JB has officially given up, thats a rarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 JB has officially given up, thats a rarity That may be good for us.LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 JB has officially given up, thats a rarity There's a glimmer of hope then. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Its a slight improvement, actually. Emphasis on slight. basically shows under 0.10 - but will probably be quite a virga storm come friday .......then warms up next week and we get some rain http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Light snowfall according to Upton. They said any small adjustments will mean a lot. Upton Models then continue to show more of progressive storm system Friday night into Saturday. The lack of phasing between shortwave energy moving in from the west...with a shortwave diving down from Canada is resulting in a low pressure center moving from the middle Atlantic coast to a location south and east of the 40n/70w benchmark. With a track as such...precipitation type from this system is expected to be all snow. The amount of quantitative precipitation forecast is still a little uncertain...but enough to warrant keeping at least low-end likely probability of precipitation instead of dropping probability of precipitation down into the chance category. With the shortwave energy moving in from the west still not yet adequately sampled with the 00z model run...there is still a chance that the timing of this shortwave could be adjusted to have a better chance in future runs of phasing with the shortwave pivoting down from Canada. At this point however...it is beginning to look like this phasing...if occurring at all...would be too late for a significant storm over here. Quantitative precipitation forecast forecast was a blend of HPC guidance...along with GFS and European model (ecmwf). A light snowfall event is therefore anticipated at this time...focused on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 JB has officially given up, thats a rarityHe knows a dead ratter when he sees one...nothing has worked out this year, so makes sense to toss in the towel...his snowfall forecast is headed for a colossal bust unless things change in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Light snowfall according to Upton. They said any small adjustments will mean a lot. Upton HPC is also going for light snowfall http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 In this winter, 1-3 is a lot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The SREFs are terrible so far, not just for here but only 3 members even show a substantial storm devloping off NC/VA/DE...of course we are outside their best range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Through 48 the southern disturbance is now more north and juiced over TN on the NAM and there is definitely a bit more amplification overall across the OH/TN valley region but its again....marginal as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 At this rate Bermuda is looking better than us heading into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Through 48 the southern disturbance is now more north and juiced over TN on the NAM and there is definitely a bit more amplification overall across the OH/TN valley region but its again....marginal as hell Thing just kind of slides off the coast aimlessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Congrats DT on this run. Not even him really, probably too much mid level WAA down there, I think most of that stuff over NC/TN is ZR or PL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Thing just kind of slides off the coast aimlessly. Not surprising the coastal did jump slightly north, I have zero doubt subtle north jumps will continue on the coastal but unless we get interaction earlier from that northern disturbance only ERN LI is at risk for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Through 48 the southern disturbance is now more north and juiced over TN on the NAM and there is definitely a bit more amplification overall across the OH/TN valley region but its again....marginal as hell Another sheared out/crap system that can't amplify due to the fast flow and poor NAO. Until the flow can slow down and more blocking can appear, this is what I think we're in for-cold/dry, warm/cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 do we get anything at all from the NAM or a complete whiff. I'd be happy with an inch at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 do we get anything at all from the NAM or a complete whiff. I'd be happy with an inch at this point Nothing http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_066_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM has 0 precip for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 do we get anything at all from the NAM or a complete whiff. I'd be happy with an inch at this point Zip zero, stingy with dinero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Fat Lady is warming up ...... May bring her on stage after the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 OK, time for 70s. A few runs in 10F, subzero wind chills is fun but it's getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think Snow88 might have posted that yesterday. I would love that. But it doesn't have any other model guidance to support it. I think Snow88 might have posted that yesterday. I would love that. But it doesn't have any other model guidance to support it. Nonsense. It is backed by the Emperor. The 'yen' could use some support too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What I learned from the past 2 winters is this: "There is a time and a place for everything." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Zip zero, stingy with dinero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Fat Lady is warming up ...... May bring her on stage after the 12z Euro She hasn't shut up since yesterday, and the Europeans love opera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 RGEM at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 RGEM at 48 hours Looks like quite the ice storm coming for KY and TN on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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