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Winter storm threat disc 1/25/13-1/26/13


Allsnow

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The two snowstorms in February 1993 broke a nearly 6 year stretch w/o winter that had commenced in March 1987.  I have often commented that the best winter month during those six years was November 1989...lol.   

 

Its funny, but I don't remember anything from the winter of 1988, yet a look at the records shows there was a real nice spell of winter on LI in January 1988 and some decent snow depths from repeat snowfalls. 

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You and I should consider it as well.

 

Edit: I just read Ray's post.  Nevermind...

 

Yeah, it stinks.  All I can suggest is CoCoRaHS ( http://www.cocorahs.org ) and CWOP ( http://www.wxqa.com ).  I participate in both, and both send data to the NWS (though I'm not sure how much attention Eastern Region offices pay to CWOP data, it seems more important out west since we're generally more data-sparse).

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The January 15, 1983 storm ranged from an inch or less on the south shore to over 4" on the north shore.  It was a snow to rain to snow affair with most of the accumulation on the back end.  It was mostly a mix during the day north of the LIE and all rain south of there before the changeover.

 

Across the sound, there was about 6" or a little more down to the coast in CT.  Mt Zucker had 3".  It was a near miss in one sense, but the LE totals in this area weren't great.

 

When I noted one to two inches, I was speaking in a general sense for most across the area.  I do know Centerport saw a local 3" at the old Vanderbilt Museum cooperative and I also recall that someone you knew told you that they measued 5" that day in N. Syosset.  And yes, much of the snow did fall Saturday evening as the temps finally cooled and as the wind backed to north to northwest. 

Much of the blame for the failed forecast could be placed on unusually warm ocean water temperatrures, which helped to push the area of greatest vertical motion (where the bulk of the snow is created) further to the north.

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Its funny, but I don't remember anything from the winter of 1988, yet a look at the records shows there was a real nice spell of winter on LI in January 1988 and some decent snow depths from repeat snowfalls. 

 

The image of January 1988 appears to be fading...I cant even recall who won the SuperBowl that month.  Though the one event that does stand out for me was a Chicago / Rangers game at the Garden where the Rangers put nearly 50 shots on the Blackhawk goalie Bannerman while a feeble Chicago squad could manage just 10 or 12 against Vanbiesbrouck.  The game ended in a one one tie.  A crucial point lost that night as NY would miss the Patrick Division playoffs by just one point...on the last shot of the season. 

 

Anyway, technology has saved what we nay have forgotten...Nassau County's old reliable coop Westbury shows two significant snowstorms that month...though few are likely to recall them with any degree of precision:

 

1/4/88: 7.1"

1/9/88: 6.8"

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GFS also has slight improvements; 0.10 touching LI this time... :snowwindow:

 

You would think 12z would be wetter still; with the slight good trend we have seen & the fact that 6z runs of the GFS are usually the driest and most supressed. 

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New England thread is saying that the storm is back on cause the 06z nam is better and the the gfs is much better!!! What exactly are they seeing??

 

It's better in the way that it's more amped up, the phase is a bit earlier, however the end result is still the same which is a coating to an inch at best. I guess we'll have to see what the 12z runs bring as a minor snow event (1-3") may still be on the table for some. 

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You would think 12z would be wetter still; with the slight good trend we have seen & the fact that 6z runs of the GFS are usually the driest and most supressed. 

As of now the only thing that could save us is more phasing between that northern/southern low over the SRN OH VALLEY otherwise I do think we may see the devloping coastal jump north over the next 1-2 days but probably not enough to help us that much other than maybe ERN LI, something needs to phase to get that coastal to come more N-NNE up the coast.  We could also hold onto the hope there is more overrunning snows generated from that northern wave too.

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Upton says in there morning disco that a moderate snow event is still possible however it's appearing to be more of a light snow event.. But they say they don't want to pull the option off the table yet they say that as of the 0z models last night the low out West had not been sampled and they would rather wait to see what future runs do especially once the West is sampled they also say something about if the phase were to occur earlier then what guidance is suggesting we could get more qpf.... I guess the 12z models will be the decision as to weather to toss in the towel or not.. thinking most of us have already decided that probably was the best way to go.. One can only hope something changes on the 12z models !!!!!

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LOL.......how did this not get posted by someone

 

CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif

 

 

LOL.......how did this not get posted by someone

 

CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif

I wrote yesterday , that if the 12 z  euro looked like the 12z jma , you would have heard 96, 2010 , yada yada .

I still think theres goin to be enough moisture thrown back that theres still a few inches of snow , while its snowing in the teens .

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NYC is on track for one of the lowest December and January snowfall totals since 1990

of under 4.5 inches for the 2 months.

 

2012-2013...0.4..so far

2011-2012...4.3

2007-2008..2.9

2006-2007...2.6

2001-2002...3.5

1997-1998...0.5

1996-1997...4.4

1994-1995...0.2

1992-1993...1.9

1991-1992....2.2

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