Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Winter storm threat disc 1/25/13-1/26/13


Allsnow

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

So many of our biggest snowstorms were not suppose to be but were, Blizzard of 96 was not progged to go any further than AC.

Far from an expert but Einstein did say that Meteorology was a difficult science.

Wow wow....the blizzard of 96 was a VERY VERY VERY well organized system...just a matter of how far north it will come. THIS system is actually a lack thereof....it's not coming together, literally

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow wow....the blizzard of 96 was a VERY VERY VERY well organized system...just a matter of how far north it will come. THIS system is actually a lack thereof....it's not coming together, literally

The NAO isn't very good, since the elongated 50-50 feature isn't really allowing it to dig and keeps the trough positively tilted, and the progressive flow with tons of waves is killing the ridge out west. This is essentially a Nina pattern which either destroys storms that try to dig and amplify in time for us, or amplify too early and nail the Midwest.

 

If the other models are whiffs tonight I'll pretty much throw in the towel. The added data gives me more confidence in that. I don't think necessarily we see nothing, but a significant event is just not likely unless we see real digging and some kind of a phase of energy in time to develop a low close by.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Writing has been on the wall for awhile

Since when? The 12z runs today? Comeon man. Wait for the entire 0z suite. I mean less than 24hrs ago, the Euro showed a decent storm. With that said, I dont think we will see much if anything at all but the writing has not been on the wall for a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wait for the Euro and if it's still flat, wait for 12z, then 00z tomorrow. Worst case, 12z Thu should be better.

 

The 00Z runs tomorrow night are probably the final shot, we'd have everything onshore the West Coast...the only thing I'd hope for if we lose it is that maybe there is some surprise overrunning from the northern disturbance pushing into the departing arctic high.  As one Met just posted in the Philly forum, the event at Day 6 needs to be watched somewhat, a southern stream weak disturbance rolls into the strong high as it pushes out...similar idea but southern stream disturbances kicking north are usually more potent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 00Z runs tomorrow night are probably the final shot, we'd have everything onshore the West Coast...the only thing I'd hope for if we lose it is that maybe there is some surprise overrunning from the northern disturbance pushing into the departing arctic high.

I was trolling the weenies, but I appreciate the serious response. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a 4 to 7 inch event on Dec 11 - 12, 1982.  A major snowstorm was forecast for Jan 15, 1983 but it only deposited an inch or two...though 2 feet in Albany.  Another snowstorm took place on Feb 6, 1983...5 days before the blizzard...putting down 2 to 5 inches before changing to sleet and rain.  It put another 16 inches down in Albany. 

The January 15, 1983 storm ranged from an inch or less on the south shore to over 4" on the north shore.  It was a snow to rain to snow affair with most of the accumulation on the back end.  It was mostly a mix during the day north of the LIE and all rain south of there before the changeover.

 

Across the sound, there was about 6" or a little more down to the coast in CT.  Mt Zucker had 3".  It was a near miss in one sense, but the LE totals in this area weren't great.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...