JonClaw Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Is the recon data in this 00z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Is the recon data in this 00z suite? Yes. The energy finally came ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 So many of our biggest snowstorms were not suppose to be but were, Blizzard of 96 was not progged to go any further than AC. Far from an expert but Einstein did say that Meteorology was a difficult science. Wow wow....the blizzard of 96 was a VERY VERY VERY well organized system...just a matter of how far north it will come. THIS system is actually a lack thereof....it's not coming together, literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This thread is hysterical. Wait till tomorrow. Then we can call this off or not. Some diagnosed with weather bipolia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wow wow....the blizzard of 96 was a VERY VERY VERY well organized system...just a matter of how far north it will come. THIS system is actually a lack thereof....it's not coming together, literally The NAO isn't very good, since the elongated 50-50 feature isn't really allowing it to dig and keeps the trough positively tilted, and the progressive flow with tons of waves is killing the ridge out west. This is essentially a Nina pattern which either destroys storms that try to dig and amplify in time for us, or amplify too early and nail the Midwest. If the other models are whiffs tonight I'll pretty much throw in the towel. The added data gives me more confidence in that. I don't think necessarily we see nothing, but a significant event is just not likely unless we see real digging and some kind of a phase of energy in time to develop a low close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS @HR54: Northern S/W digging more than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I don't think the GFS will show us any precip. What a horrible turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS @HR60: S/W is flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS @HR66: Both Northern and Southern S/W are aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS @HR72: Northern S/W is flatter. Southern S/W is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS @HR 78: The SLP is FAR off the coast. That's the end of that fiasco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Ukie is still coming in amped up like the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Whiff, only some flurries at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Light snow for NYC and Philly this run. But step up from NAM which was nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Weird. The UKMET is just as amplified as the previous run. I don't know what's going on at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The only thing you can hope for is a 12/26 boxing day style comeback except the ingredients were always there for boxing day but the phase was just off a tad on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 UK has been crap for awhile. This happened about a month ago as well. It tends to over-amplify systems. Take it with a grain of salt. Weird. The UKMET is just as amplified as the previous run. I don't know what's going on at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 UK has been crap for awhile. This happened about a month ago as well. It tends to over-amplify systems. Take it with a grain of salt. So we should disregard it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Weird. The UKMET is just as amplified as the previous run. I don't know what's going on at all. I'm essentially waiting on the Euro-if it's flat too it's likely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Weird. The UKMET is just as amplified as the previous run. I don't know what's going on at all. I'm essentially waiting on the Euro-if it's flat too it's likely done. Oh I hope so.....but not excited anymore or willing to wait. We know it will be suppressed goodnight all ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Writing has been on the wall for awhile Since when? The 12z runs today? Comeon man. Wait for the entire 0z suite. I mean less than 24hrs ago, the Euro showed a decent storm. With that said, I dont think we will see much if anything at all but the writing has not been on the wall for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bignyc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wait for the Euro and if it's still flat, wait for 12z, then 00z tomorrow. Worst case, 12z Thu should be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wait for the Euro and if it's still flat, wait for 12z, then 00z tomorrow. Worst case, 12z Thu should be better. The 00Z runs tomorrow night are probably the final shot, we'd have everything onshore the West Coast...the only thing I'd hope for if we lose it is that maybe there is some surprise overrunning from the northern disturbance pushing into the departing arctic high. As one Met just posted in the Philly forum, the event at Day 6 needs to be watched somewhat, a southern stream weak disturbance rolls into the strong high as it pushes out...similar idea but southern stream disturbances kicking north are usually more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 does anybody have the qpf output for the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bignyc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 00Z runs tomorrow night are probably the final shot, we'd have everything onshore the West Coast...the only thing I'd hope for if we lose it is that maybe there is some surprise overrunning from the northern disturbance pushing into the departing arctic high. I was trolling the weenies, but I appreciate the serious response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 When was the last time there was a trace of snow for CPK in the month of January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 does anybody have the qpf output for the ukie? Not the QPF map but the precipitation map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 When was the last time there was a trace of snow for CPK in the month of January? 1933 and 2008....1890 was zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 1933 and 2008....1890 was zero. Thank you. Hopefully CPK can get something before the month is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 There was a 4 to 7 inch event on Dec 11 - 12, 1982. A major snowstorm was forecast for Jan 15, 1983 but it only deposited an inch or two...though 2 feet in Albany. Another snowstorm took place on Feb 6, 1983...5 days before the blizzard...putting down 2 to 5 inches before changing to sleet and rain. It put another 16 inches down in Albany. The January 15, 1983 storm ranged from an inch or less on the south shore to over 4" on the north shore. It was a snow to rain to snow affair with most of the accumulation on the back end. It was mostly a mix during the day north of the LIE and all rain south of there before the changeover. Across the sound, there was about 6" or a little more down to the coast in CT. Mt Zucker had 3". It was a near miss in one sense, but the LE totals in this area weren't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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