Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think most places in the NYC area are already above 10" minus the park and areas with in the core of the urban heat island. Lets not forget the 12Z nam did bring the .25 line a hair south of the city and it had more to go past h84. The CMC also had around .30 for the city, the Ukie and JMA had solid hits. So despite not seeing last nights Euro bomb today, it doesn't mean we can't get a 4 to 6+ snowfall. Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13 As of January 22, 2013 Bridgeport: 19.7" Newark: 8.9" Islip: 7.5" Central Park: 5.1" JFK: 4.9" LaGuardia: 2.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If memory serves, 1982-83 was also fairly snowless until the Blizzard of 83. There was a 4 to 7 inch event on Dec 11 - 12, 1982. A major snowstorm was forecast for Jan 15, 1983 but it only deposited an inch or two...though 2 feet in Albany. Another snowstorm took place on Feb 6, 1983...5 days before the blizzard...putting down 2 to 5 inches before changing to sleet and rain. It put another 16 inches down in Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 the winters that started out mild and snowless that had a good February or March are... 1949-50... 1971-72... 1985-86... 1992-93... 1994-95... 2006-07... None of these were great but at least had a cold snowy February/March... The winter with the most dramatic shift out here was 1966-67...about 10 inches of snow in December and January but 65 inches in February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 There was a 4 to 7 inch event on Dec 11 - 12, 1982. A major snowstorm was forecast for Jan 15, 1983 but it only deposited an inch or two...though 2 feet in Albany. Another snowstorm took place on Feb 6, 1983...5 days before the blizzard...putting down 2 to 5 inches before changing to sleet and rain. It put another 16 inches down in Albany. yea the Feb. 6th storm was the Sunday before the blizzard and gave my block 4" before it changed to drizzle and mix...(video to come)...The forecast was pretty good for that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The winter with the most dramatic shift out here was 1966-67...about 10 inches of snow in December and January but 65 inches in February and March. December was great in 1966 but January wasn't...February/March had to many events to list...That year had a few days that was mild one day and snowy the next...There 's still plenty of time for a KU event as long as it stays cold...1992-93 turned on a dime in early February...We ended up with above average snowfall and below average temperatures in Feb. and March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Of course 93/94 was great, as was 95/96, and then in the 2000s, starting with 12/30/2000, things were great despite the great variablity and some snow droughts. Still though if the mid 90s to 2000s are your frame of reference, you'd be suprised to see that for quite a long stretch, 10" snowstorms happened on average once every five years. I remember in 1999 doing some quick research and finding that LI had a grand total of six or 10"+ snow storms between the late 70s and 1999. You are probably right regarding widespread 10 inch plus events...though, since LI takes up considerable real estate...it is a good deal easier to find at least *one* location that topped 10 inches than every area exceeding ten. Storms in March 1981, January 1982, January and February 1987, January 1988, December 1988, February 1990, February 1994 (2), February 1995, December 1995, February 1996, March 1996, April 1996, February 1999, and March 1999 are all ones that produced localized amounts of at least 10 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 December was great in 1966 but January wasn't...February/March had to many events to list...That year had a few days that was mild one day and snowy the next...There 's still plenty of time for a KU event as long as it stays cold...1992-93 turned on a dime in early February...We ended up with above average snowfall and below average temperatures in Feb. and March... The two snowstorms in February 1993 broke a nearly 6 year stretch w/o winter that had commenced in March 1987. I have often commented that the best winter month during those six years was November 1989...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This storm is toast. The 500mb setup is so hideous it's not even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The two snowstorms in February 1993 broke a nearly 6 year stretch w/o winter that had commenced in March 1987. I have often commented that the best winter month during those six years was November 1989...lol. from January 1988 to march 1992 NYC went without a snowfall falling on top of existing snowcover...I'm old enough to remember the March KU events of 1956 and 1958...March can be great...The last great March was 1993... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Why is that a weenie, look at every piece of guidance and tell me it's a pattern conducive to any snow at all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13 As of January 22, 2013 Bridgeport: 19.7" Newark: 8.9" Islip: 7.5" Central Park: 5.1" JFK: 4.9" LaGuardia: 2.1" 14.6" in Monmouth County. We were above normal through early January, but now I think slightly below for this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Why is that a weenie, look at every piece of guidance and tell me it's a pattern conducive to any snow at all here. Wait until February when the MJO gets into Phase 8. You act like we are not even going to see a flake out of this system. We may not, but at least it will be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Why is that a weenie, look at every piece of guidance and tell me it's a pattern conducive to any snow at all here. You're saying the H5 pattern is not conducive based upon a model's interpretation of that pattern 4 days from now. In other words that depiction could easily change, potentially quite significantly, in the coming cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam is not even a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam is flat like a pancake. No one sees any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lol it's almost funny that we go from storm almost definitely likely to no precip lol. It many times is an issue of precip type, storm strength etc....we can't even get any precipitation to work it's way in ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wait until February when the MJO gets into Phase 8. You act like we are not even going to see a flake out of this system. We may not, but at least it will be something. At this point it does not appear we will see a flake. And that's not just jumping to weenie ism, that's looking at the most important ingredient, the upper air pattern. It's bad and trending worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam way se. Not even clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You're saying the H5 pattern is not conducive based upon a model's interpretation of that pattern 4 days from now. In other words that depiction could easily change, potentially quite significantly, in the coming cycles. Iso I know what you are saying but this one isn't even close and trending even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 14.6" in Monmouth County. We were above normal through early January, but now I think slightly below for this point in the season. If you plan on living in that area for a while Tom, write Mt Holly and tell them you want to open a cooperative...there are not many stations in your county with good long term records of the climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This is a a done deal folks. Time to move on. 3 days out? You know better than this not to give up just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If you plan on living in that area for a while Tom, write Mt Holly and tell them you want to open a cooperative...there are not many stations in your county with good long term records of the climate. Yeah completely agree William. The snowfall data at the Marlboro/Freehold coop is not very accurate and rather spotty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This is a a done deal folks. Time to move on. 3 days out? You know better than this not to give up just yet. Lol....this one, like many this season...is done man. Though the trend is not our friend, we are at the point now where there might as well be no precip on the map. If there wasn't a storm on yesterday's model runs, we'd have no idea that there was even potential looking at today's model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I still have the feeling we will see something out of this... once all of the pieces get injected into the models i think a NW trend will commence. However, i think anything over 6 inches is highly unlikely, unless we get very good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If you plan on living in that area for a while Tom, write Mt Holly and tell them you want to open a cooperative...there are not many stations in your county with good long term records of the climate. Right now no new COOP sites are allowed. No $$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I find it amazing that THIS has no surface reflection...this is the first system that blows up offshore at 40 hours or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah completely agree William. The snowfall data at the Marlboro/Freehold coop is not very accurate and rather spotty. CoCoRaHS would always appreciate a new precip/snowfall observer. That data is going into NCDC, not sure if they'll ever make normals out of it but its getting archived regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah completely agree William. The snowfall data at the Marlboro/Freehold coop is not very accurate and rather spotty.I didnt even realize we had one here in Marlboro!! Hahaha thats how spotty it is i guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Thursday's t storm is looking more impressive then Friday's storm. The PVA is stronger and we may even see a snow shower from it, while if this NAM run is true not even a flake for Friday. However things can still change, but that ridge west of the storm is getting pounded and that is one of the reasons why it trough is not digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I find it amazing that THIS has no surface reflection...this is the first system that blows up offshore at 40 hours or so... Do you think that could be something that will change in future cycles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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