IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It drank too much Malbec again, damn Argentines. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It drank too much Malbec again, damn Argentines. Lol, can't blame them though. Best red out there right now, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Many amplified members on the 12z GGEM Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro ensembles are similiar to the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro ensembles are similiar to the operational any amplified members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 HPC apparently agrees with the models today because it has reduced its qpf - the a.m. update had the 0.50 area over us and the p.m update barely has the 0.25 area over us http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Why would you throw in the towel? The data didn't even come into the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 18z Nam took a step to the GFS. Right now the GFS is the model to go but we know that these models can change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I wouldn't throw in the towel... unless you were expecting a KU. I think a respectable snowstorm is still possible. I wouldn't BET on it, but I'm not much of a gambling man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I wouldn't throw in the towel... unless you were expecting a KU. I think a respectable snowstorm is still possible. I wouldn't BET on it, but I'm not much of a gambling man 1-3 is fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 In addition to HPC Upton is only going with a light accumulation in their afternoon update http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 In addition to HPC Upton is only going with a light accumulation in their afternoon update http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html But Moderate snow accumulations Friday night in Nassau and Suffolk county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Awful There is no reason to look at the 84 hour NAM QPF output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 There is no reason to look at the 84 hour NAM QPF output... GFS and Euro really aren't any better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If you took a blend of all the model guidance today , including NCEPs QPF , Its not outside the envelope to think this can be a 4 inch storm , This WAS never ( outside 1 Euro RUN ) some monster system coming to the east coast . No reason to throw the towel in or be angered by todays guidance . It snows Fri , and if you get 4 inches thats the most many have seen ( near the coast ) since NOV . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The only way we are getting a moderate snowfall with this event is if we start to see the models moisten up again with the TN/OH Valley type overrunning storm scenario. The 500 mb pattern is not conducive at all to a coastal, not even got the immediate coast IMO. But like the UK and JMA show, if we can back to those earlier runs of stronger southern wave riding to our west with some gulf open to moisture we can see a system maybe dropping .4-.6 and giving us that 5 or 6" snowstorm. I believe that is the trend you want to look for rather than coastal development. Less northern clipper interaction and more pure southern wave overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 In 48 hours if the same models show the same suppression, I'll throw in the towel, the flag and the swedish models. Until then, game on for at least 6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS and Euro really aren't any better though. I truely believe we will see an increase in regards to the GFS, NAM and EURO.... i agree with PB GFI; this looks like a 3-6 inch storm but there is always room for more... the models should have a better handle on this tomorrow into Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It wouldn't be an east coast snowstorm if there wasnt any waffling back and forth with the models anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Now we need that infamous northwest trend... cold and dry.... warm and wet... I said it before..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I truely believe we will see an increase in regards to the GFS, NAM and EURO.... i agree with PB GFI; this looks like a 3-6 inch storm but there is always room for more... the models should have a better handle on this tomorrow into Thursday... I'd love to squeeze 3-6" out of this, sure it may go back NW but I doubt it. A usually amped NAM in the range is suppressed and that bothers me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 yea, if it doesnt tick back nw the next round.. it will most likely stay suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS and Euro really aren't any better though. I truely believe we will see an increase in regards to the GFS, NAM and EURO.... i agree with PB GFI; this looks like a 3-6 inch storm but there is always room for more... the models should have a better handle on this tomorrow into Thursday... Problem is...it DOES NOT look like a 3-6 inches....it looks like a 1-2 inched hopefully. Models are trending away from any moderate or even light accumulation now into a showery coating to 2 inch storm....cold air keeps it suppressed and tears the system up. We wanted cold we got it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 cold air keeps it suppressed and tears the system up. We wanted cold we got it ! Thats why i said earlier today that with cold air like this... you need a digger to come rolling up the coast that can punch into it.. and then you normally end up with a KU.. otherwise.. it scoots out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Gfs is horrible lol oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Gfs is horrible lol oh well Waste of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Thats why i said earlier today that with cold air like this... you need a digger to come rolling up the coast that can punch into it.. and then you normally end up with a KU.. otherwise.. it scoots out.. You don't need that, you can still get a moderate snowstorm with this level of cold. What you have now is not "epic" cold. Its run of the mill cold, or at least it used to be. These days it may seem epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is why I said yesterday be careful what you wish for in terms of a less amplified track. People were so worried about changing to rain, now getting rain is the least of your worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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