Absolute Humidity Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is about the same time frame all the models backed off the Boxing day storm. Literally all of them, until it was 48 or 36 hrs out. Certainly not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 South...all trended south to the GFS. Storm cancel ? Ya kinda ! The relevant pieces of energy haven't even been sampled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'll take whatever I can get at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well, we still have the UKMET to hold our hats on, lol. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The relevant pieces of energy haven't even been sampled yet. Oh yeah. I forgot about that. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'll take whatever I can get at this point. At least you are being realistic unlike all the people screaming that the storm is canceled because the models didn't show a 8-12"storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro is basically 1-3 and gives dca 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Let's see what the Ensembles have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At this point I'll even take 1-3" that's how bad this winter has been. Have had ZERO days of complete snowpack the entire month. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 thoughts from a reformed weenie: it's okay not to post every single thought that comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At this point I'll even take 1-3" that's how bad this winter has been. Have had ZERO days of complete snowpack the entire month. -skisheep Exactly. I've experienced winters like this A LOT, so I'm use to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hug a model day on here as usual! Though some have mentioned some decent meteo (NAO going positive and progressive nature) I think we still salvage a decent area wide 2-4 type event. 8-12 was never going to happen, we were so spoiled in the mega -NAO days it just became expected that nearly every event would over preform. Not the case in the real world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't hug models often but when I do, they're Swedish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Exactly. I've experienced winters like this A LOT, so I'm use to it. Nina patterns without a strong -NAO are tough to produce major storms for a reason. If this doesn't work out, the progressive flow and overdominant northern stream are the likely culprits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't hug models often but when I do, they're Swedish. win. That would be great though: coldest week in 2 years, and we can't even get a storm out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is about the same time frame all the models backed off the Boxing day storm. Literally all of them, until it was 48 or 36 hrs out. Certainly not over yet. Chances are, this will not play out like that scenario, given how anomalous that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 South...all trended south to the GFS. Storm cancel ? Ya kinda ! Because it's Friday already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z JMA and British models look very much alike to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It is all just a matter of how much those two systems phase. 1-3 is on the table, so is 6-12. We shall see. British and JMA have our 6-12, all the others have like 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Lol....such a familiar experience this winter. All models show a storm, trend to no storm, admitting it comes slow but gradually....clinging on to chance of 2", then barely that.....GFS/NAM both going off of it kinda was game over for me. I still think we get 2" like I said before all these models caved in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think everyone needs to settle down and let the pieces come together starting tomorrow. This is still very much up in the air and no reason to set any alarms off just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 From HM in the New England thread: I think the models are seeing more of the exiting PV's influence and are losing the core of the PAC s/w. As Will suggested, I suspect this trends stronger as we get closer and this comes back NW. E NJ to E MA zone could end doing well again with this one while I watch 30 miles to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It`s a timing issue .The UKIE and JMA phase the northern and southern stream quicker , where as the Euro and GFS do so closer to Cape Cod . Would lov to see what the Euro ensembles say . It`s Tues not Thrs , but as it stands in this air , Most along the coast could still be in line for more than 4 inches of snow while doing so in the low 20`s . Most would have taken that at any point , before seeing an amped up 0z Euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 From HM in the New England thread: I think the models are seeing more of the exiting PV's influence and are losing the core of the PAC s/w. As Will suggested, I suspect this trends stronger as we get closer and this comes back NW. E NJ to E MA zone could end doing well again with this one while I watch 30 miles to the West. Literally beat me to the punch by 30 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If the 12 z Euro looked like the 12z JMA , the predictions on this thread would have ranged from 96 to the boxing day storm and everything in between . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Most of the guidance doesn't bring all the energy involved onshore until the 00z runs tomorrow night. I wouldn't think we're locked in on one solution until the 12z runs on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 when do the ensembles usually come out for the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 330ish I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I hear the Somalian model has 36-48". Is that 75:1 ratios? I think you'll get at least a few feet over there in west Milford you guys always seem to ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Anyone have access to QPF outputs for the UKMET past hr 72? Precip field looks robust at hr 72. Wanted to also point out how slow the UKMET is. This would probably be more of Saturday threat on the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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