MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 And now the GGEM has trended to the GFS/NAM. Euro I'm sure will in a couple hours. It has a sub 1000 low heading near the benchmark. The precip shield seems fishy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Though we have models on the table giving us 6-12", etc....I'm going to go with a combo of the GFS/NAM...my call is for 1-2" for most of us with higher amounts up to 4" as the maxcalling for amounts is foolish at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Though we have models on the table giving us 6-12", etc....I'm going to go with a combo of the GFS/NAM...my call is for 1-2" for most of us with higher amounts up to 4" as the max And now the GGEM has trended to the GFS/NAM. Euro I'm sure will in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 And now the GGEM has trended to the GFS/NAM. Euro I'm sure will in a couple hours. Lol, in no way shape or form other than QPF output. The track and H5 is wildly different and the GEM QPF output is nonsense and to buy that at this range is insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With a strong PV and a progressive pattern, the ideas of a suppressed solution could be correct although I think it's a 3-6" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Though we have models on the table giving us 6-12", etc....I'm going to go with a combo of the GFS/NAM...my call is for 1-2" for most of us with higher amounts up to 4" as the maxcalling for amounts is foolish at this point. Save this post and throw it in my face after the storm then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The day your are in the cross hairs 4 days out on the GFS for a major snowstorm , you better pack you`re umbrella . They love to come west ,and often do you have to have lived here long enough to see that bias in the model . Doesnt mean the GFS is wrong here , i just like the more northern solution . If every model run has to be perfect then nothing anyone says will convince you otherwise . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It has a sub 1000 low heading near the benchmark. The precip shield seems fishy to me. A very suppressed weaker solution is certainly possible. All of the pieces won't be onshore and well sampled for at least another 24-36 hours. We probably won't know for sure until 12z tomorrow at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GGEM shows most of the snow missing SNE while the Euro hammers them. Should be interesting to see what happens with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 96hr Ukie from this afternoon looks pretty favorable. Unrelated to that specific Ukie run, I think I would hold off on the freakouts especially at this range. Still lots of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GGEM shows most of the snow missing SNE while the Euro hammers them. Should be interesting to see what happens with the Euro. Do you happen to have the precip graphics yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Crazy differences in wording....Upton says moderate snowstorm possible while Taunton says blockbuster storm possible. I never knew that 6-12" is considered "moderate" for our area. It should be worded as "significant." They are probably not convinced its going to be 6-12. I'm not either, though I do feel fairly confident that it will snow on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Do you happen to have the precip graphics yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 They are probably not convinced its going to be 6-12. I'm not either, though I do feel fairly confident that it will snow on Friday.'I like the ridge axis thru the Rockies . Should argue for a little sharper trough down range no ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 ' I like the ridge axis thru the Rockies . Should argue for a little sharper trough down range no ? to be honest the ridge axis in the rockies is kinda meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I've seen straight 10-1 snow with temperatures in the teens before. It all depends what the mid-levels have where the snowflakes form. You want -12 to -18C at around 700mb for optimal ratios. A lot of times in these SWFE type events, warming in the mid levels can make the flake quality deteriorate, even if you never change over. I keep trying to explain that ratios have little to do with the surface and much more to do with aloft, but no one wants to read my posts, so I think I'm gonna stop bothering to make this argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Surprised no mention of the NAO and that is close to neutral right now and for the friday storm and going more positive according to this outlook - difficult to get any phasing along the coast with the neutral NAO - storm will be too progressive - so will only be a light to possibly moderate snow accumulation at best ..... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Surprised no mention of the NAO and that is close to neutral right now and for the friday storm and going more positive according to this outlook - difficult to get any phasing along the coast with the neutral NAO - storm will be too progressive - so will only be a light to possibly moderate snow accumulation at best ..... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif[/quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I keep trying to explain that ratios have little to do with the surface and much more to do with aloft, but no one wants to read my posts, so I think I'm gonna stop bothering to make this argument. I am listening and learning from it. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I keep trying to explain that ratios have little to do with the surface and much more to do with aloft, but no one wants to read my posts, so I think I'm gonna stop bothering to make this argument. I read them and they taught me a lot! Thanks and keep them coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Take from this what you will but the 12z NOAGPS is coming in very progressive and OTS despite being rather amplified. Could be playing towards its progressive bias. Forms a secondary off the VA Capes and then barely scrapes the coast. Either way I think it's becoming pretty clear that this event favors eastern zones which should make a lot of folks happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Surprised no mention of the NAO and that is close to neutral right now and for the friday storm and going more positive according to this outlook - difficult to get any phasing along the coast with the neutral NAO - storm will be too progressive - so will only be a light to possibly moderate snow accumulation at best ..... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif We all now this will likely be a relatively short event, but we can easily pick up 6"+ in a 12 hour or less snow event. I had a foot in less than 10 hours during 1/22/05 and some places got 2 feet in 10 hours during the 12/30/00 storm. I don't think too many people are talking about this being a widespread 10"+ event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Take from this what you will but the 12z NOAGPS is coming in very progressive and OTS despite being rather amplified. Could be playing towards its progressive bias. Forms a secondary off the VA Capes and then barely scrapes the coast. Either way I think it's becoming pretty clear that this event favors eastern zones which should make a lot of folks happier. Thats not too bad, it aint much more progressive than the GFS is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We all now this will likely be a relatively short event, but we can easily pick up 6"+ in a 12 hour or less snow event. I had a foot in less than 10 hours during 1/22/05 and some places got 2 feet in 10 hours during the 12/30/00 storm. I don't think too many people are talking about this being a widespread 10"+ event A widespread 8-12" event is still not off the table assuming that a solution closer to the past few runs of the Euro verifies. These last few years it seems like the Euro is always the one showing the event and the GFS is the new "Dr. NO". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Thats not too bad, it aint much more progressive than the GFS is Right, so assuming that its too progressive and playing towards its bias that would leave potential on the table for this to trend back to the northwest once the Shortwaves have all been better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Surprised no mention of the NAO and that is close to neutral right now and for the friday storm and going more positive according to this outlook - difficult to get any phasing along the coast with the neutral NAO - storm will be too progressive - so will only be a light to possibly moderate snow accumulation at best ..... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif you can mention whatever you'd like to support your opinion, but all one needs to do is look out west to see why the 00z euro gave us a beast and the 12z GFS is a whiff. There is a closed upper level low barreling into the west coast that initially raises heights and gives us a nice transient west coast ridge. The euro keeps this transient ridge until our s/w phases with the northern stream before flattening heights out west, while the gfs does this much earlier, leading downstream to a much flatter, progressive solution for us. at hr 84 on the 00z euro, the 546 line is about 350 miles north of the US-canadian border. At 72 on the 12z GFS its about 150 miles north of the border. Evidence of a flatter ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 HUH ? you posted 2 days ago on the banter thread " This is what happens when the NAO is neut to pos and theres no blocking causing the SE ridge to flex itself " with an NCEP attachment showing this system coming too far west , with it goin to rain on the coast Now its progressive . which is it ? If I did post exactly that in the banter thread I think it was more then 2 days ago the models have changed from the more amped and west solution - you should know that - wasn't just me -we were all worried about mixing issues at that time - the last day or so it has become obvious that this will be 100% frozen event in NYC metro - still as my previous post mentioned with the NAO neutral only light to moderate accumulations at best IMO................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Right, so assuming that its too progressive and playing towards its bias that would leave potential on the table for this to trend back to the northwest once the Shortwaves have all been better sampled. Which BTW won't occur til the 00Z runs tomorrow night, thats when most show the energy onto the West Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If I did post exactly that in the banter thread I think it was more then 2 days ago the models have changed from the more amped and west solution - you should know that - wasn't just me -we were all worried about mixing issues at that time - the last day or so it has become obvious that this will be 100% frozen event in NYC metro - still as my previous post mentioned with the NAO neutral only light to moderate accumulations at best IMO................ but ask yourself, if the NAO is neut , wouldnt the natural response be for the SE ridge to flex a bit ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z GGEM off of ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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