PB GFI Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I really am gona wait until the models ingest all the low level cold air in front of it and the equation emerges to go around not up and over because thats the path of least resistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro looks much improved so far. Further south from 00z for the first wave, heights lower in the east. Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Ohio Valley getting a snowstorm on this run, that bodes well for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro a lot further south. Make northern stream weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 570 heights into canada out west. PNA spike ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like a great run incoming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Hr 150 light to mod snow for entire area. Pretty cold also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Low over eastern nc. Great run so far for dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 With fast flow does not have much time to amp up. It whiffs sne. Warning snowfall here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Although jm makes a good point in his previous post, the cold air mass we have certainly does matter as this may really help us at the very least get some sort of front end thump with a track where we would ordinarily get all rain with a crappier airmass. I'm not all gung ho excited yet but this is an intriguing setup. A better NAO would be ideal, but usually the NAO's job is to lock in lower, suppressive heights to our north, and we do have that in this setup. It just has a bit more wiggle room to get ushered out than it would had there been a legit block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 .35" of precip for NYC. 521 thicknesses. 20-21 degrees surface temps the whole time and 850s of -11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 PD2 was first proggeed to be two separate events, we know how that turned out. I see a lot of similarities. Pd2 was a two part event....we just didnt get anything from part one. Ask the DC/Balt thread about part 1, 3-5" for some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro is a nice hit . Cold temps also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 .35" of precip for NYC. 521 thicknesses. 20-21 degrees surface temps the whole time and 850s of -11. we could get 15-1 ratios with those temps and low thicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This is a very favorable look. We have suppressive heights to our north, which is what an NAO's "job" would be anyway...so in some ways the pattern does act as if we have a good -NAO. This is why you can't just look at the indice numbers to get a good picture of the pattern. And of course a decent PNA spike with a nice shortwave to our west, with room to amplify but not too much room to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Ohio Valley getting a snowstorm on this run, that bodes well for us How does that bode well for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Ohio Valley getting a snowstorm on this run, that bodes well for us How does that bode well for us? If the storm is essentially a west to east bowling ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 kinda humorous to watch and seemingly strong and progressive ridge get squashed by the PV over NW canada as it heads east. What we end up with is cold and more cold and by 204 were still dealing with -16 850's. In case anybody is counting it looks like we don't get above freezing from hr 36 all the way through 204 and likely beyond. How true this ends up being who knows but would be quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 If the storm is essentially a west to east bowling ball How often does that happen? We would need a strong -nao, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 So we have 3 models amped and way west and the Euro fast flowed and SE.....the euro is gonna lose again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The warmet 850 s are minus 10 awesome sign. 6 days out. So i can b as cautious as i was over the gfs. Howver gfs ensembles. 2 m temps hr156 minus 7 is its max. The models will catch the cold in front of it and take the southern route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 How often does that happen? We would need a strong -nao, no? if you read the post above the purpose of a strong west based -NAO would be to keep confluence/suppressive heights north of us. For this time period as its modeled right now, even in the absence of a -NAO we have this suppressive heights due to the orientation of the trough and location of the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 How does that bode well for us? The storm track for this particular event. No offense but this is common sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 So we have 3 models amped and way west and the Euro fast flowed and SE.....the euro is gonna lose again so lets get this straight...we have 1 model which is awful at that timeframe showing amped and way west (CMC)...the ukmet (which I haven't seen) that I heard is warm and the GFS which is not what I'd call amped and way west especially with the whole evolution of the storm since we end up getting a moderate event anyway from the coastal. And now the euro which is probably just a little too far south of the metro area to give us the best snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 So we have 3 models amped and way west and the Euro fast flowed and SE.....the euro is gonna lose again If it does not budge north in the next 48 hours I'll start to feel very good...not til then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 if you read the post above the purpose of a strong west based -NAO would be to keep confluence/suppressive heights north of us. For this time period as its modeled right now, even in the absence of a -NAO we have this suppressive heights due to the orientation of the trough and location of the PV But the danger with the neutral NAO is the PV slides just far enough east in a more amplified solution to allow the SE Ridge to be strong enough for the models to trend to a warmer solution within 120 hrs. I wouldn't trust anything else but the euro ensemble mean past 120 hrs in a pattern like this. The 12z OP is still a 144hr plus forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This is a very favorable look. We have suppressive heights to our north, which is what an NAO's "job" would be anyway...so in some ways the pattern does act as if we have a good -NAO. This is why you can't just look at the indice numbers to get a good picture of the pattern. And of course a decent PNA spike with a nice shortwave to our west, with room to amplify but not too much room to cut. ImageUploadedYorkpa25, on 27 December 2012 - 07:31 PM, said: I don't know much, but come on guys this has a 90% chance of being a 2-4" storm that's it. It's pretty late in the game for anything drastic. I'd say if 0z runs don't have a big bump on qpf then this is not going to improve before its game time. Crazy things happen but not Saturday. Agree or disagree? Sorry, you're wrong. Very small changes can still have large impacts wrt final outcome ByTapatalk1358621055.184437.jpg Hi Doug! From joe in seaside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 But the danger with the neutral NAO is the PV slides just far enough east in a more amplified solution to allow the SE Ridge to be strong enough for the models to trend to a warmer solution within 120 hrs. I wouldn't trust anything else but the euro ensemble mean past 120 hrs in a pattern like this. agreed the -nao locks this in vs it being potentially transient and easily impacted by a more amped solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 But the danger with the neutral NAO is the PV slides just far enough east in a more amplified solution to allow the SE Ridge to be strong enough for the models to trend to a warmer solution within 120 hrs. I wouldn't trust anything else but the euro ensemble mean past 120 hrs in a pattern like this. The 12z OP is still a 144hr plus forecast. There is definitely some weak blocking over greenland holding the 50/50 in place looking at the 500mb NHEM maps. It's not a strong -NAO though edit: what i mean is it's not strong enough to guarantee a snowy solution right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 agreed the -nao locks this in vs it being potentially transient and easily impacted by a more amped solution Yeah, the OP Euro has a knack for getting the jump on the other models around 120 hrs with tricky situations like this with the GFS a few days behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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