Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS is pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12Z is less amped than 0Z, and thus the storm is slighty further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The gfs does make the northern streame less dominate. It's night and day compared to 06z Would that be a positive or a negative in terms of snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The gfs does make the northern streame less dominate. It's night and day compared to 06z Would that be a positive or a negative in terms of snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We really have to hope the EURO holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 remember what happened last time, people got too greedy and wanted 6-12 and should have taken the 3-5 and ran, instead we got 1-2 nothing wrong with a 2-4/3-5 inch storm...those are the norms not big 10 inchers, people two spoiled by the last 10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Its center comes off in a good spot , This seems like typical GFS error too me as it takes the center off to the East too fast . The Euro is deeper ( prob too amped ) but come NE I have never ( i mean almost ever 93- 96 , thats it ) seen the GFS hav me dead center 4 days out . Its alway been south and east for almost every 6 inch storm in my memory . The block is weak so there should be enough resistance by the SE ridge , doesnt look like insurmountable confluence by the time the center is coming NE . I think its a BM storm , think the strength is the issue . I will stay with that until the Euro changes my mind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Would that be a positive or a negative in terms of snowfall? Positive. As it would be a step towards euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 remember what happened last time, people got too greedy and wanted 6-12 and should have taken the 3-5 and ran, instead we got 1-2 nothing wrong with a 2-4/3-5 inch storm...those are the norms not big 10 inchers, people two spoiled by the last 10 years Yes people's greediness caused the storm to behave as it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ukie real amp up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A little bit worried, the gfs hasn't made any progress yet. We'd be lucky to get an inch if the gfs is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 remember what happened last time, people got too greedy and wanted 6-12 and should have taken the 3-5 and ran, instead we got 1-2 nothing wrong with a 2-4/3-5 inch storm...those are the norms not big 10 inchers, people two spoiled by the last 10 years I always find it funny that people say "since people got greedy and wanted 6-12", we got 1-3"", as if nature cares what we want. Anyway, I wouldn't get too worried unless the Euro jumps off later today. Still numerous possibilities here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 remember what happened last time, people got too greedy and wanted 6-12 and should have taken the 3-5 and ran, instead we got 1-2 nothing wrong with a 2-4/3-5 inch storm...those are the norms not big 10 inchers, people two spoiled by the last 10 years ROTHFLMAO - Like the storm's give a hoot. Thanks for the laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ukie real amp up Might be too amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd be a bit worried to be honest. Models HAVE often trended to the GFS's consistency at this range, though we tend to think not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yes people's greediness caused the storm to behave as it did Haha yup, posts like this crack me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd be a bit worried to be honest. Models HAVE often trended to the GFS's consistency at this range, though we tend to think not In this case, something seems a bit "off". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd be a bit worried to be honest. Models HAVE often trended to the GFS's consistency at this range, though we tend to think not In this case, something seems a bit "off". I agree but the NAM which is usually too far NW in this range has already trended to the GFS in a big way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ukie is similiar to the 0z run. It's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd be a bit worried to be honest. Models HAVE often trended to the GFS's consistency at this range, though we tend to think not But we've seen example like this dozens of times, GFS suppresses the storm and ends up being the last model on board. When that's the case it is rarely right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I agree but the NAM which is usually too far NW in this range has already trended to the GFS in a big way The GFS ensembles largely are more amped than the operational, which is a clue that the operational could be too flat. Other models are more to substantially more amped. Unless these models trend away from that idea, I wouldn't get too worried. The NAM is also horrendous at this range and doesn't become better until within 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 The GFS ensembles largely are more amped than the operational, which is a clue that the operational could be too flat. Other models are more to substantially more amped. Unless these models trend away from that idea, I wouldn't get too worried. The NAM is also horrendous at this range and doesn't become better until within 48 hrs. This is a real good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it is very typical for people to dismiss the solutions when they don't show a hit, just be consistent, if the GFS showed a nice hit, everyone would be lauding it. Since it doesn't everyone says toss it or its wrong. I mean you can predict the posts before they happen. If the Euro shows a hit everyone will be talking about big snows like its a definite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Oh believe me I agree with all of that. However, I tend to think model trends are more important than previous runs that are big...if any models are trending the opposite way of the storm phasing, etc....at the very very least it is something that should be largely factored in, especially in a season like this. Cold was actually UNDERestimated not overdone as it usually is on the models. Could easily lead to a suppressed track with cold air dominating and the models I think are picking up on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is a real good post We've seen this pattern how many times now with the GFS losing a storm? The phase has to take place in time and we can't have the destructive interference with the northern stream, but the Euro having it and the GFS not would be a no-brainer most of the time. And numerous ensembles still have a big system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GGEM is south of the 0z run. Couple of hours of moderate snow for our region. Probably a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it is very typical for people to dismiss the solutions when they don't show a hit, just be consistent, if the GFS showed a nice hit, everyone would be lauding it. Since it doesn't everyone says toss it or its wrong. I mean you can predict the posts before they happen. If the Euro shows a hit everyone will be talking about big snows like its a definite. Agreed ! You said it better than I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it is very typical for people to dismiss the solutions when they don't show a hit, just be consistent, if the GFS showed a nice hit, everyone would be lauding it. Since it doesn't everyone says toss it or its wrong. I mean you can predict the posts before they happen. If the Euro shows a hit everyone will be talking about big snows like its a definite. Lol, dude if the GFS pretty much stands alone in it's solution at this range (NAM trending to it at this range means squat), hit or miss, it is to be dismissed every time in patterns like the one we are in and will be in come event time. Case closed. Of course everyone here is entitled to believe it but don't count on that to be reliable when determining a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Though we have models on the table giving us 6-12", etc....I'm going to go with a combo of the GFS/NAM...my call is for 1-2" for most of us with higher amounts up to 4" as the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 And now the GGEM has trended to the GFS/NAM. Euro I'm sure will in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.