SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Agreed, suppression worries me, I don't like the fact that the GFS went back to that idea for 2 consecutive runs now. The models are swinging back to more of a Miller B type scenario and the GFS is struggling putting the pieces of energy together, but given the overall synoptic setup the Euro/GFS are currently trying to show this is going to be an I-95 East event with more snow for LI and ern CT if this trend is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The main reason at this point is that the models still haven't settled down yet on a single solution. The Euro has been shifting run to run while all the other guidance is more of a northern development before the secondary pops. It's a very low probability forecast at this point trying to guess amounts. Correct. I'd ride the Euro and GGEM ensembles right now as a compromise. I just hope the GFS doesn't score a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The main reason at this point is that the models still haven't settled down yet on a single solution. The Euro has been shifting run to run while all the other guidance is more of a northern development before the secondary pops. It's a very low probability forecast at this point trying to guess amounts. Disagree about the Euro shifting around. It's been very consistent since the 12z run on the 18th showing this system......FWIW. This leads to more confidence, IMO and we've seen the GFS and the hide and seek scenario too many times in the past to take it very seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The models are swinging back to more of a Miller B type scenario and the GFS is struggling putting the pieces of energy together, but given the overall synoptic setup the Euro/GFS are currently trying to show this is going to be an I-95 East event with more snow for LI and ern CT if this trend is correct. So basically from NYC to Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The million dollar question is if the Euro is done coming NW with the low? I am never crazy about being in the jackpot more than 96 hrs out. 12z Screen shot 2013-01-22 at 7.03.00 AM.png 0z Screen shot 2013-01-22 at 7.02.23 AM.png This system is already etched for me . I said yesterday its a BM storm , jut hav to figure out intensity . The difference between UPTON and TAUTON is the Euro prints out 12 plus accorss LI BUT 24 in Boston , The " risk " is this doesnt BOMB til its as little late , and thats the main risk I see rigth now , NOT RAIN , NOT A SHUNT . but where does is close , and how fast is it .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This system is already etched for me . I said yesterday its a BM storm , jut hav to figure out intensity . The difference between UPTON and TAUTON is the Euro prints out 12 plus accorss LI BUT 24 in Boston , The " risk " is this doesnt BOMB til its as little late , and thats the main risk I see rigth now , NOT RAIN , NOT A SHUNT . but where does is close , and how fast is it .. Coming NW doesn't mean rain in this situation. It means that we still get snow but the main low rides through the Ohio Valley and the secondary redevelops further north tapping less moisture with more modest snow amounts than the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Coming NW doesn't mean rain in this situation. It means that we still get snow but the main low rides through the Ohio Valley and the secondary redevelops further north tapping less moisture with more modest snow amounts than the Euro is showing. The RAIN wasnt directed too you . Just was general speak . But i AGREE , I thnk we both said last Thrs this was coming under - I said yest Im pretty sure its to the BM , but yes THE RISK is it starts bombing south of ISLIP not the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The RAIN wasnt directed too you . Just was general speak . But i AGREE , I thnk we both said last Thrs this was coming under - I said yest Im pretty sure its to the BM , but yes THE RISK is it starts bombing south of ISLIP not the Delmarva no the real risk is that this doesnt bomb at all and never phases or phases way east of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 no the real risk is that this doesnt bomb at all and never phases or phases way east of the area. Possible not likely , This storm will be off the east coast in a big way FRI , how we are impacted , will have more to do with if the error more or less north not east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The RAIN wasnt directed too you . Just was general speak . But i AGREE , I thnk we both said last Thrs this was coming under - I said yest Im pretty sure its to the BM , but yes THE RISK is it starts bombing south of ISLIP not the Delmarva It's going to be a cold track, but the snowfall amounts are a low confidence forecast at this point until the models come into better agreement and settle down. It's really tough to give a first call past 60 hrs when it comes to snowfall around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's going to be a cold track, but the snowfall amounts are a low confidence forecast at this point until the models come into better agreement and settle down. It's really tough to give a first call past 60 hrs when it comes to snowfall around here. I think Friday AM we r in the teens before any precip breaks out - last nite in COLTS NECK we got 2 inches squeezed out of .10 qpf - so the ratios are goin to be there in this air mass.This is no WHIFF , is it 4 or 14 ? agree too early to even stab at it , but thats the model diff right now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You may be right about it not being a whiff for the city proper/LI, but it looks like the western burbs may get whiffed... the gradient that shows up in the 12z suite will be telling. Snowgoose has the right idea with the I95 East likely hit (assuming the secondary pops in time). I think Friday AM we r in the teens before any precip breaks out - last nite in COLTS NECK we got 2 inches squeezed out of .10 qpf - so the ratios are goin to be there in this air mass.This is no WHIFF , is it 4 or 14 ? agree too early to even stab at it , but thats the model diff right now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Biggest concern is like the last storm, original primary weakens and the secondary/coastal bombs too late for us...and we are stuck in the middle, that is how you verify with only a 2-4" storm...when the potential is there for much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The re-development is likely what determines whether this is a more run of the mill few inch or so event vs. 6" to possibly considerably more. Hopefully the phase takes place soon enough to make that possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Crazy differences in wording....Upton says moderate snowstorm possible while Taunton says blockbuster storm possible. I never knew that 6-12" is considered "moderate" for our area. It should be worded as "significant." Wait a sec.. That Taunton wording, as quoted below, isnt a forecast; its a description of the 0z ECMWF, which they are discounting in their forecast, going instead with the more modest Ecmwf mean: The European model (ecmwf) is most amplified with the middle level trough and has rapidly deepening low tracking near Cape Cod which would bring a blockbuster snowstorm to southern New England with mix/change to rain immediate coast. The GFS is least amplified and most progressive with weaker low tracking near the benchmark with result being only a light snow event. The eventual outcome will likely fall in between these 2 solutions which European model (ecmwf) ensemble mean suggests showing a modest storm tracking near the benchmark...stronger than GFS but weaker than op European model (ecmwf). We leaned toward the European model (ecmwf) ensemble mean for this storm. Other than this storm... However I do agree Upton seems to be playing down the 0z Euro, hardly giving it a mention.. Although they do mention the possibility of warning criteria snows to at least the coast, depending on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think Friday AM we r in the teens before any precip breaks out - last nite in COLTS NECK we got 2 inches squeezed out of .10 qpf - so the ratios are goin to be there in this air mass. This is no WHIFF , is it 4 or 14 ? agree too early to even stab at it , but thats the model diff right now . I've seen straight 10-1 snow with temperatures in the teens before. It all depends what the mid-levels have where the snowflakes form. You want -12 to -18C at around 700mb for optimal ratios. A lot of times in these SWFE type events, warming in the mid levels can make the flake quality deteriorate, even if you never change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Biggest concern is like the last storm, original primary weakens and the secondary/coastal bombs too late for us...and we are stuck in the middle, that is how you verify with only a 2-4" storm...when the potential is there for much more. 2-4 inches would likely be generous if that scenario occurs here...the advantage this time is the 2nd low likely pops more south so it gives a slightly better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UPTON is smart too wait . day 4 ..- and you wana see more agreement before you go all in , I dont think theres good agreement on the models until 12z tomorrow . Lots of detes to sort in our locales . If we wound up with 6 out of this , after ths winter , we would all take it in a heart beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM still looks fine but I'm slightly worried about it being as snowy for us as it is, given its tendencies I usually want to see it more north and west at the end of its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 When does the storm start and end I have a 3pm flight from Newark Saturday? Thanks Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM still looks fine but I'm slightly worried about it being as snowy for us as it is, given its tendencies I usually want to see it more north and west at the end of its range Isn't the NAM usually amped in it's long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hate to say it but whenever the gfs or euro is on to a bad trend, we tend to hold onto the ones that DON'T show that trend. GFS showed suppressed and we dismiss it. NAM shows it and we still dismiss it for now. Then other models will show it and we'll say "uh oh"....I'd give it time but the trend is no really our friend here. It has trended south every run almost every model even those that we are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Isn't the NAM usually amped in it's long range? Yeah, and its not really that amped here which has me worried slightly. Its basically between the Euro and GFS more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm not entirely worried. If the GFS turns around and agrees with the EURO, then everything should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The NAM is a solid 4 inch storm with temps in the low 20`s . We have been shut out on the coast since Nov , there is nothing to complain if that verified , considering where we have been . last week you guys were crying its goin to the lakes - the last 2 days its oh my god its too strong , its gona rain . now its DAM look at this its gona miss south . Do you know how absurd some of this baby $%^&* is .... Pick a side , make a call . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah, and its not really that amped here which has me worried slightly. Its basically between the Euro and GFS more or less. Yeah, it looks like the euro was too amplified compared to all the other guidance. Storms that get going over the SE like the euro was showing generally have the 50/50 further west than it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not noticing any significant differences so far with the GFS at least at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Gfs is further south with low. Develops a secondary off delaware. But the flow is so progressive it missies to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 The gfs does make the northern streame less dominate. It's night and day compared to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At least the GFS is trying this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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