Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The storm is cold start to finish , Ray If we snow from the mid teens thru the low 20`s with 850 s around minus 10 should be able top out at 15 to1 ? I thought optimal snow growth was -15C --18C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 About the same. Perhaps a hair warmer at surface It creeps up to near the freezing mark by Friday evening but 850s are plenty cold so no issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It looks borderline on the gfs, which is very worrisome to me but the Euro was very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 It creeps up to near the freezing mark by Friday evening but 850s are plenty cold so no issues. It's a solid run def. No mixing issues. Just not as cold at surface as 12z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The storm is cold start to finish , Ray If we snow from the mid teens thru the low 20`s with 850 s around minus 10 should be able top out at 15 to1 ? I thought optimal snow growth was -15C --18C For optimal snow growth, you want -12 to -18 C temps in the snow growth region. 850mb often times is not that region. We need to look at soundings to determine any ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It looks borderline on the gfs, which is very worrisome to me but the Euro was very encouraging. Its not borderline at hr 96 850 are minus 12 surface temps close to 25 at hr 102 850s are minus 5 surface upper 20`s city on north most of the precip has fallen . I dont see an issue anywhere on the coast either , Southern NJ maybe . but not our thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It looks borderline on the gfs, which is very worrisome to me but the Euro was very encouraging. The only problem with the GFS right now is the 850 low is a bit north of where you'd really like to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Precip rates look good - looks like close to .75 in 12 hrs . Should help a bit , if theres some good dynamics occuring ? The only problem with the GFS right now is the 850 low is a bit north of where you'd really like to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's a solid run def. No mixing issues. Just not as cold at surface as 12z was. Yeah and slightly wetter. Most places are in the .45 western areas to .55 closer to the coast. Right now Philly/Trenton areas look like the sweet spot, cold enough for all snow and around .75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Precip rates look good - looks like close to .75 in 12 hrs . Should help a bit , if theres some good dynamics occuring ? It would be a decent amount of snow but with that 850 low track we would change over eventually, may only be sleet or a bit of drizzle at the end but thats one of the better rules out there that DT likes to throw around, the 850 low going over, west or north of you will change you over every single time. The models usually don't see it at this range but the 850 temps would ultimately be 2-3C higher probably if that track occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The only problem with the GFS right now is the 850 low is a bit north of where you'd really like to see it. That's going to remain a huge concern going forward, these things tend to trend further north as we get closer so I wouldn't rule out a warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It would be a decent amount of snow but with that 850 low track we would change over eventually, may only be sleet or a bit of drizzle at the end but thats one of the better rules out there that DT likes to throw around, the 850 low going over, west or north of you will change you over every single time. The models usually don't see it at this range but the 850 temps would ultimately be 2-3C higher probably if that track occurred. If it doesn't snow with a storm going off the Jersey coast 850 0 line in South Jersey..arctic air in place it will not snow this year..I will give up on the winter and will be praying for 70 degrees and sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If it doesn't snow with a storm going off the Jersey coast 850 0 line in South Jersey..arctic air in place it will not snow this year..I will give up on the winter and will be praying for 70 degrees and sun Yeah, A lot of people would throw in the towel. If that did happen though we would surely have a terrible spring with a frequent onshore flow with temps in the 40s/50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It would be a decent amount of snow but with that 850 low track we would change over eventually, may only be sleet or a bit of drizzle at the end but thats one of the better rules out there that DT likes to throw around, the 850 low going over, west or north of you will change you over every single time. The models usually don't see it at this range but the 850 temps would ultimately be 2-3C higher probably if that track occurred. The center exits off the Central and Southern NJ coast - the Zero line never gets N of AC .The above rule will always apply , but thats not progged here at all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It would be a decent amount of snow but with that 850 low track we would change over eventually, may only be sleet or a bit of drizzle at the end but thats one of the better rules out there that DT likes to throw around, the 850 low going over, west or north of you will change you over every single time. The models usually don't see it at this range but the 850 temps would ultimately be 2-3C higher probably if that track occurred. It would be a decent amount of snow but with that 850 low track we would change over eventually, may only be sleet or a bit of drizzle at the end but thats one of the better rules out there that DT likes to throw around, the 850 low going over, west or north of you will change you over every single time. The models usually don't see it at this range but the 850 temps would ultimately be 2-3C higher probably if that track occurred. Its always possible to drizzle at the end with LP that close when the dynamics are done . But thats a track that can thrown down 6 - 8 inches of snow in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The storm is cold start to finish , Ray If we snow from the mid teens thru the low 20`s with 850 s around minus 10 should be able top out at 15 to1 ? 12:1 seems possible... but its above -10C all the way from 630mb to the surface so you won't get the ideal. The large area above -10C means you will get riming on flakes which can reduce the ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro is really cold while the GFS isn't lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro is really cold while the GFS isn't lol I really believe they are both cold enough . Dont think many hav an issue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Its always possible to drizzle at the end with LP that close when the dynamics are done . But thats a track that can thrown down 6 - 8 inches of snow in spots 2/22/08 only colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If it doesn't snow with a storm going off the Jersey coast 850 0 line in South Jersey..arctic air in place it will not snow this year..I will give up on the winter and will be praying for 70 degrees and sun The 850 0C line would ultimately verifiy way north if that exact track occurred than what it shown now, one of the things the models do not resolve well beyond 72-96 hours is how far precipitation gets thrown back behind the 850 low and how warm the temps get just south of it....they tend to throw too much precip too far N and W of it and usually are too cold just south......the 102 hour 850 frame on the 18Z GFS shows the 0C line near Toms River, it would likely verifiy just south of NYC/LI in the end end with that type of 850 low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 2/22/08 only colder? Better to ask Goose or Ray , too me no 2 systems are alike they all behave differently in the end . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 2/22/08 only colder? The area busted on the high side with that storm. I was forecasted to get 2-3 inches then rain. I received 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The area busted on the high side with that storm. I was forecasted to get 2-3 inches then rain. I received 7 inches. I was 3 to 6 and got almost 7 and while it did turn to drizzle for a time the bulk of it was snow. Another event was the 12/27-28/90, which most people here won't remember but it was forecast to be a 1 to 3" event the morning of. It was updated to 3 to 6" and I ended up with 7.5. It snowed rather heavily overnight and eventually had a bit of sleet on top but for the most part was a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I was 3 to 6 and got almost 7 and while it did turn to drizzle for a time the bulk of it was snow. Another event was the 12/27-28/90, which most people here won't remember but it was forecast to be a 1 to 3" event the morning of. It was updated to 3 to 6" and I ended up with 7.5. It snowed rather heavily overnight and eventually had a bit of sleet on top but for the most part was a snow event I do remember that one, it was one of the few good storms in an otherwise aweful multi-year period of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Just saw the 18z GFS snowfall map which just gives the city 2 inches and Long Island nada lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Just saw the 18z GFS snowfall map which just gives the city 2 inches and Long Island nada lol Snowfall maps from models are the worst to look at. They treat LI as an ocean, that's why you see LI never get any snow on those maps. Look at the total QPF, then move the decimal, that should give you a general idea about how much snow you see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Just saw the 18z GFS snowfall map which just gives the city 2 inches and Long Island nada lol Just saw the 18z GFS snowfall map which just gives the city 2 inches and Long Island nada lol Dude are you talking about the snowfall rate map up that was posted on accu forum ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The area busted on the high side with that storm. I was forecasted to get 2-3 inches then rain. I received 7 inches. This would likely be more of a snowier setup overall than the 2/08 storm, sort of a similar type storm but better setup....2/08, the first part of 12/5/03, and the first part of the late 1/2011 storm are similar, they were all unforecast WAA waves generated by subtle 500mb disturbances well ahead of the surface lows that dropped 5-8 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Just saw the 18z GFS snowfall map which just gives the city 2 inches and Long Island nada lol Look at soundings, and forget model maps for the most part. But I definitely agree about wanting the 850 low to go south of us. Even in central PA I saw it change over every time that happened even when models were colder 96hr or so out. Warm air advection in the mid levels is often stronger than models show it at this time range, and southerly winds at 850-700mb are often a definite sign that you change over (eventually). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This would likely be more of a snowier setup overall than the 2/08 storm, sort of a similar type storm but better setup....2/08, the first part of 12/5/03, and the first part of the late 1/2011 storm are similar, they were all unforecast WAA waves generated by subtle 500mb disturbances well ahead of the surface lows that dropped 5-8 inches of snow. This would likely be more of a snowier setup overall than the 2/08 storm, sort of a similar type storm but better setup....2/08, the first part of 12/5/03, and the first part of the late 1/2011 storm are similar, they were all unforecast WAA waves generated by subtle 500mb disturbances well ahead of the surface lows that dropped 5-8 inches of snow. I think we are in the same range . Living here long enough you know you always sleet or drizzle at the end of WAA , but its not goin to wash accumulations away if it happens - you will just have to shovel 6 inches of cement away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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