MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro has temps in the 20's for this storm as far south as D.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The s/w is slowing down on the models, which gives it a better chance to phase with stuff near the lakes once its in the Ohio valley We are pretty close on the euro to an all out phase bomb I wouldn't want a big phase for the initial storm. That would cause it to cut inland and rain for us. The follow-up coastal storm looks interesting though and needs to be monitored to see if it can form and become amplified in time to throw more snow back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Overnight lows after this storm are in the single digits for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Nice to see some of our bretheren to the South and East get in on the goods! Hoping it stays strong for you! That said, does anyone have a sense of what it looked like up in the hills of NW NJ? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We're still going to see a lot of changes given we are over 4 days away from this. I feel more comfortable that we should at least some snow out of this even in the warmest solution. No need to be greedy, I'll take 3-6" and be happy, remember the last time we tried to be greedy (December 29) and got completely screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I wouldn't want a big phase for the initial storm. That would cause it to cut inland and rain for us. The follow-up coastal storm looks interesting though and needs to be monitored to see if it can form and become amplified in time to throw more snow back west.[/quoteHe means a more phased secondary. And with a good track u would b very pleased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We're still going to see a lot of changes given we are over 4 days away from this. I feel more comfortable that we should at least some snow out of this even in the warmest solution. No need to be greedy, I'll take 3-6" and be happy, remember the last time we tried to be greedy (December 29) and got completely screwed. It will be a lot colder this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Overnight lows after this storm are in the single digits for the area. Overnight lows after this storm are in the single digits for the area. Which model(s) show single digits for NYC after storm passage? Hey, I'm in Brooklyn too. Looks like warm up near 30th. with rain, then cold again early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It will be a lot colder this time around. Exactly. Not so concerned about warm air. Just concerned about the amount of moisture and/or suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Which model(s) show single digits for NYC after storm passage? Hey, I'm in Brooklyn too. Looks like warm up near 30th. with rain, then cold again early Feb. Euro and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What's it look like for up here? does it through anything decent back? Looks like a 2-4" type deal up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Exactly. Not so concerned about warm air. Just concerned about the amount of moisture and/or suppression. That would be my only concern at this point. If the Euro is too strong with the low development between 96-120 hrs, then we would see a weaker low a little south with less precip than this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I have a snow map, but I don't think it's the right time to release it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 a little bird told me the euro ensembles match the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 a little bird told me the euro ensembles match the operational According to DT's facebook the ensembles are snowier than the operational (doesn't go into specifics) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 According to DT's facebook the ensembles are snowier than the operational (doesn't go into specifics) He goes into more detail in comments section. Saying .30-.60 for everyone, with 15-1 ratio. Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 According to DT's facebook the ensembles are snowier than the operational (doesn't go into specifics) Who care's what DT says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Who care's what DT says? because he's a meteorologist. it's good to hear from meteorologists other than the 2 or 3 that post on this sub forum.... spaced between hundreds of weenie and amateur posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 because he's a meteorologist. it's good to hear from meteorologists other than the 2 or 3 that post on this sub forum.... spaced between hundreds of weenie and amateur posts. He is? From what I heard he's a self proclaimed met . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This demonstrates my claim yesterday that there is definitely a weak blocking signal, not a big block, but an area of higher heights helping to hold the 50/50 in place. You also have arctic air in place before the storm and a nice pna spike out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 He is? From what I heard he's a self proclaimed met . No, DT actually used to work for the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 He is? From what I heard he's a self proclaimed met . he says he has a degree in meteorology from the city college of new york...... i have no reason not to believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z gfs is a tad further south then 12z Light snow on door step hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Mod snow from hr 99-102 on 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 This run is close to .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This run is close to .75 Nice, sign us up. Still just as cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This run is close to .75 Sweet band from Philly to NYC at hour 102. Awesome run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Nice, sign us up. Still just as cold? About the same. Perhaps a hair warmer at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Nice, sign us up. Still just as cold? The storm is cold start to finish , Ray If we snow from the mid teens thru the low 20`s with 850 s around minus 10 should be able top out at 15 to1 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 About the same. Perhaps a hair warmer at surface I think most of the prec falls upper teens to mid 20`s accross the city points N AND W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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