NittanyWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 He is a clown and from your posting style I can see your right behind him Stuff like this is why us Red Taggers don't like to post here as much..just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I based my ratios comment from this chart from the NWS. I work for NWS and can tell you unequivocably that that chart is old and not reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What it all comes down to is understanding that the NYC sub-forum covers more than just your own backyard. Those of us folks in the interior should get the same respect as those that live near the coast. Some of us in the interior flat out don't feel like we're welcomed as part of the NYC forum. I think if ur below 84 ur in ur the thread . It's not a 5 boroughs thread. I live in laurel hollow and colts neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm going to post the Nam at 84 hours since no one is talking about this storm in this thread. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Ok we kool. Peace Finally...back to weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What a freaking disaster this thread became. C'mon, guys, you should know better than this. Back to the "storm", if you weel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 12z GFS out to 96, wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hr 105 mod snow. Low further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hr 108 mod snow continues. This run the low goes south of phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 At hour 108, looks like eastern LI has mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Storm exit off acy. All snow this run. .5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 12z GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_108_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_111_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Temps below freezing the entire time for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 At hour 108, looks like eastern LI has mixing issues. Disagree, thickness of 536m and 850s of -4C shouldn't produce mixing issues...they're closer to the cold air to the northeast, so I doubt they mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Good run for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 What is timing on this? Friday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The gfs would be a nice solid event, but given it's still pretty far out I'm still nervous it goes further north. I'd rather see a more suppressed solution right now than what the gfs is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What is timing on this? Friday morning? More like Friday night...108 is 7pm Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Good run for nyc Yeah, the GFS keeps the low weak enough for a cold solution for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 .50 for everyone on this run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_114_precip_p48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 That 06z super suppressed solution seems to have been a hiccup, as expected. Fast moving thump snow as projected on this run 3 - 6 type event. You have to go back a few years to find clipper deliver such a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The gfs would be a nice solid event, but given it's still pretty far out I'm still nervous it goes further north. I'd rather see a more suppressed solution right now than what the gfs is showing. I don't think the GFS is even close to locking on to a solution yet. I wouldn't get excited or concerned over any individual run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 FWIW, shortwave comes ashore Wednesday evening. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 More like Friday night...108 is 7pm Friday. Could be an interesting evening commute friday according this run and much of the other guidance. Snow comes in quick friday noon-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 So probably a 3-6 or 4-8 inch event as shown by the gfs which I know most would happily take right about now. Also off topic, that's quite a powerful storm east of Greenland, nearly 920 mb wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Temps would be in the 20's if the GFS would verify. Haven't seen a snowstorm with temps in the 20's in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Temps would be in the 20's if the GFS would verify. Haven't seen a snowstorm with temps in the 20's in a while. two years by my reckoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Temps would be in the 20's if the GFS would verify. Haven't seen a snowstorm with temps in the 20's in a while. havent seena snowstorm in 2 yrs.....lol 12z was a lot weaker with the thursday clipper compared to 6z... so thinking that 6z was a true hiccup run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 two years by my reckoning. Boxing Day Blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Boxing Day Blizzard? there were a few in January 2011 which met that criteria I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I still believe the track is too far northwest. The surface low as progged never gets stronger than 1007mb on the GFS, and we've got a frigid antecedent airmass with a 1029-31mb sfc high over upstate NY through Thursday night. A 1007mb low running up to SW PA with a 1030mb high over NNE? I don't think so. The short wave doesn't look amplified enough at H5 to produce such a northward displaced sfc low. Where is the strong mechanism to drive the IP line to 40N latitude when the storm itself is so weak. Mid level warm air advection is often underestimated in SWFE's one may argue - yes that's true, but if the sfc low track is incorrect by 100-200 miles, that warm punch will be occurring over DCA and not PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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