Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 6:41 PM, PB GFI said: Think its only 3 days max between troughs . Yes. It's very brief at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 AG3 you have Belmar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 6:43 PM, YanksFan27 said: If we had some decent blocking we'd have another miller B threat next week. With no blocking the high in SE Canada slides eastward the system cuts with nothing to stop it. You may start the warm with some WAA and when it ends next weekend , there mayb a system on the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 6:37 PM, Dsnowx53 said: The ratios won't be as good as they were during the inverted trough. But 12-15:1 seems possible. Why don't people read our posts about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 SPC SREF favors some higher ratios, like the ones mentioned: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 6:52 PM, famartin said: Why don't people read our posts about this? Because we already have. We are not allowed to talk about ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 6:57 PM, Quincy said: SPC SREF favors some higher ratios, like the ones mentioned: that link does not work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 6:59 PM, allgame830 said: that link does not work... Works on my end. Shows about 15:1 near NYC and 20:1 for NW NJ: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f066.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 6:58 PM, TWCCraig said: Because we already have. We are not allowed to talk about ratios? You are, but assuming ultra high ratios because surface temps are colder than the last time isn't correct, as we keep stressing the main factor in ratios is aloft, not at the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ratios are always higher upon the passing of a strong arctic front, right ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 7:01 PM, Quincy said: Works on my end. Shows about 15:1 near NYC and 20:1 for NW NJ: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f066.gif How about 20:1 - 30:1 ratio's Mike DeFino seems to think so http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=4331&topicid=17893&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 7:47 PM, NEG NAO said: How about 20:1 - 30:1 ratio's Mike DeFino seems to think so http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=4331&topicid=17893&Itemid=179 Best ratios usually come from an unstable sounding like those we had on Monday night. I'm not seeing that with this system, they're pretty stable aloft. So, my guess is 20:1 and higher is unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 7:46 PM, famartin said: You are, but assuming ultra high ratios because surface temps are colder than the last time isn't correct, as we keep stressing the main factor in ratios is aloft, not at the ground. But I never said that ratios depend on surface conditions. I learned from you that higher ratios occur because of factors aloft. I never said it had to do with the surface. After all, snow doesn't form at the surface. You make good contributions to this forum, people like you teach us. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 8:04 PM, TWCCraig said: But I never said that ratios depend on surface conditions. I learned from you that higher ratios occur because of factors aloft. I never said it had to do with the surface. After all, snow doesn't form at the surface. You make good contributions to this forum, people like you teach us. Thank you. No problem. I don't think my comments about ratios (and people not reading them) have been directed at you per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NMB6 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah fwiw srefs are further north. Expect nam to move towards globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 8:11 PM, Zir0b said: NMB6 FTW The sad thing is that despite that one member being very strong, it keeps most of the precip well south and east of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 8:19 PM, Allsnow said: Yeah fwiw srefs are further north. Expect nam to move towards globals Nam is coming in further north through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam looking further north through 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like it will be further north than 12z, but still a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z Nam trended north. Still a miss but at least we get some precip on this run. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_060_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam would be more but we get sucker holed during the transfer to costal. The diff from run to run in this model is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The NAM seemed like it was going to make a major move til it got out of its good range and then it tempered the shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 500mb improvements can be seen this run though. Some N adjustment with precip field but the interesting thing is the energy rounding the trough off more in Midwest with heights responding a bit on the east coast. There is some time left, not much room for anything signifcant but a couple inches is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 3 things on this run 1. It digs a little sooner and you see interaction with the northern branch as it expands its precip field over its 12z run . 2 .Theres a little clipper on its heels so there mayb a prolonged period of light snow anyways . 3. Its in the teens through the entire time. If you get the slightest bit of digging than you can intesify a little earlier you may be able come even further north than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 8:47 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM seemed like it was going to make a major move til it got out of its good range and then it tempered the shift. It less sheared with vorts, until about 60hrs. When shoots out the southern vort further east. I like the trends before that though. The 12z GFS was the similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 8:52 PM, Weathergun said: It less sheared with vorts, until about 60hrs. When shoots out the southern vort further east. I like the trends before that though. The 12z GFS was the similar too. Does the fact that the NAM loses it's MOJO in the later hours? Just wondering anyone's thoughts. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 8:52 PM, Weathergun said: It less sheared with vorts, until about 60hrs. When shoots out the southern vort further east. I like the trends before that though. The 12z GFS was the similar too. The 00z runs tonight are so important. Nobody will be able to say that all of the energy isn't onshore because it's coming in as we speak. If the models are going to start making a significant move it should be tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 1-2" would be awesome if we could manage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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