WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm still going with my original call of 1-2", with highest amounts of 3"....Now most likely more towards the 1". Believe it or not I DO believe that it trends a bit further north, but it just doesn't fully connect and anything over a few inches just will not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 i love how everyone is proclaiming its over even before all of the features are sampled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 2:55 AM, famartin said: Right now no new COOP sites are allowed. No $$$. Was not aware of that..but you would be in the know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:02 AM, allgame830 said: i love how everyone is proclaiming its over even before all of the features are sampled... Happens with every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 While i do not think this is going to live up to the expectation of the 00z ECM last night..I can not believe at the same time people would throw in the towel over the 00z NAM and over the NAMs long range when the model can not be trusted till within 48 hrs and sometime 24 hrs... Now if the GGEM, GFS, UK and ECM go that way then it would be time to throw in the towel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This has been the last grasped straw for over ten years on these boards. On 1/23/2013 at 3:02 AM, allgame830 said: i love how everyone is proclaiming its over even before all of the features are sampled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:05 AM, atownwxwatcher said: While i do not think this is going to live up to the expectation of the 00z ECM last night..I can not believe at the same time people would throw in the towel over the 00z NAM and over the NAMs long range when the model can not be trusted till within 48 hrs and sometime 24 hrs... Now if the GGEM, GFS, UK and ECM go that way then it would be time to throw in the towel! Even then I would not be 100% comfortable calling it over...that setup out West that this evolves from is so ugly, this is not over til everything comes onshore, even if the rest of the models tonight show a big storm I'd still not feel good about anything til the 00Z runs tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 UK is a crap model; basically useless these days. GFS has been a solid miss for several runs. On 1/23/2013 at 3:05 AM, atownwxwatcher said: While i do not think this is going to live up to the expectation of the 00z ECM last night..I can not believe at the same time people would throw in the towel over the 00z NAM and over the NAMs long range when the model can not be trusted till within 48 hrs and sometime 24 hrs... Now if the GGEM, GFS, UK and ECM go that way then it would be time to throw in the towel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:05 AM, atownwxwatcher said: While i do not think this is going to live up to the expectation of the 00z ECM last night..I can not believe at the same time people would throw in the towel over the 00z NAM and over the NAMs long range when the model can not be trusted till within 48 hrs and sometime 24 hrs... Now if the GGEM, GFS, UK and ECM go that way then it would be time to throw in the towel! The euro, gfs, and gefs all look like that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:07 AM, Storm At Sea said: UK is a crap model; basically useless these days. GFS has been a solid miss for several runs. Ukie is a crap model? I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 So many of our biggest snowstorms were not suppose to be but were, Blizzard of 96 was not progged to go any further than AC. Far from an expert but Einstein did say that Meteorology was a difficult science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm more annoyed because I'm about to lose my OT shift at work tomorrow for this event, I cannot honestly even justify still having it right now if the other models look like this, I'm willingly going to make them the offer of just dumping it, although we still have some concerns over VA/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:02 AM, allgame830 said: i love how everyone is proclaiming its over even before all of the features are sampled... Because you have to use more reason than just "we'll a lot of systems have come north", the upper level pattern depicted now within 60 hrs stinks, it's not even close. It will change but not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ugh I'm pretty much done with snow threats this winter. Unless we see a real threat within 2 days, I'm not biting anymore. I know in 2009 we got it in early March but considering how these past March's have been, I'm not hopeful. We'll probably have one final ten day period of opportunity in February before it's too late but we've gotten screwed so far so I'm not betting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Watch the GFS and EC come bac On 1/23/2013 at 2:53 AM, Isotherm said: Yeah completely agree William. The snowfall data at the Marlboro/Freehold coop is not very accurate and rather spotty. Yes I believe it says our 1980 - 2010 snowfall average is 13". That data is missing entire months including the blizzard of 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:11 AM, jetski09 said: Ugh I'm pretty much done with snow threats this winter. Unless we see a real threat within 2 days, I'm not biting anymore. I know in 2009 we got it in early March but considering how these past March's have been, I'm not hopeful. We'll probably have one final ten day period of opportunity in February before it's too late but we've gotten screwed so far so I'm not betting on it. Well the MJO is going into 8 so that is great for us heading into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 2 things at work here. The NAM produces a cut off low in CA basin 12 hrs in that wasn't seen on previous runs , it has real implications downstream. If that is right than the southern max never catches up with the northern stream and its a wrap Its a timing issue. The flat look is possible. However My second point is the NAM is bad on the west coast usually because it's on the edge of its envelope Jeez I feel like I'm running out of excuses , but all of the above is true. If by 12 z tomorrow when this is prog is the same. Than you call off the dogs. But you have to wait until these things get east of the rockies before u Tap . If tomorrow 12z this is what it says then it prob is . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:08 AM, irishbri74 said: The euro, gfs, and gefs all look like that.... ECM was printing about .10 out for the area.. NAM is printing out?? Not the same Further into the PHL area ECM was printing out about 1-3 inches.. NAM not the same... GFS has also been printing out QPF albeit light amounts ...but again NOT the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hey there's always the 264 18z GFS. Goodnite , see u on the flip side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 00Z RGEM does not hold back the disturbance like the NAM...it does not necessarily look all that great with it but its not held back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Big time ism going on in here tonight! I do not care what the NAM says 72 out. King NAM? Since when? 2-4 high ratio snow Upton coastal. Im sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:14 AM, PB GFI said: Hey there's always the 264 18z GFS. Goodnite , see u on the flip side. No more 200+ hr gfs runs, pure fantasy. Heck no more 100+ hour gfs runs either since they don't mean a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It seems that Neutral ENSOs have MASSIVE negative implications on the computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:18 AM, jetski09 said: No more 200+ hr gfs runs, pure fantasy. Heck no more 100+ hour gfs runs either since they don't mean a thing. IWhat if I tell you I believe in unicorns too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Which means that we'll just have to deal with the nonsense from the computer models for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:18 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Big time ism going on in here tonight! I do not care what the NAM says 72 out. King NAM? Since when? 2-4 high ratio snow Upton coastal. Im sticking to it. Now that's the fighting spirit. Agreed, this setup can change six more times before a final resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:20 AM, IntenseBlizzard2013 said: It seems that Neutral ENSOs have MASSIVE negative implications on the computer models. Neutral ENSOs are bad because you tend to be drier IMO...neutrals after a Nina or even 2-3 Ninas even worse, its been years since you've had that active southern branch...93-94 was so active largely because we still had the remaining effects of 3-4 years of El Nino conditions impacting the STJ...also may be why 10-11 was so active...the lingering effects of the El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:22 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Neutral ENSOs are bad because you tend to be drier IMO...neutrals after a Nina or even 2-3 Ninas even worse, its been years since you've had that active southern branch...93-94 was so active largely because we still had the remaining effects of 3-4 years of El Nino conditions impacting the STJ...also may be why 10-11 was so active...the lingering effects of the El Nino Interesting. So why are we expecting this event to be moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 some very tiny snow flakes falling,gotta be a good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 3:18 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Big time ism going on in here tonight! I do not care what the NAM says 72 out. King NAM? Since when? 2-4 high ratio snow Upton coastal. Im sticking to it. Not many models outside of the obscure point to anything special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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