Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .14 qpf of snow likely with temps at about 29. 850 temps at -1 at JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 on Thursday at 1PM it is 26 degrees at DCA same time Friday it's 44 degrees lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .14 qpf of snow likely with temps at about 29. 850 temps at -1 at JYO I doubt that's all snow as thickness jumps to 543; there's some sleet with that from a warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Let's hope the trend is wet. We all know the cold hangs on longer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Let's hope the trend is wet. We all know the cold hangs on longer than forecast. Right now it feels like the trend is West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 only .29" falls at BWI; by Sat 6Z it's 24 degrees again it literally warms up to precipitate then gets immediately cold again and dries out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Let's hope the trend is wet. We all know the cold hangs on longer than forecast. all 3 airports are under .3 qpf for the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 only .29" falls at BWI; by Sat 6Z it's 24 degrees again it literally warms up to precipitate then gets immediately cold again and dries out +1 for phineas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Right now it feels like the trend is West I don't think it is. Maybe fro yesterday's Euro. The GFS has been fairly consistent with the position. What's jumping out at me is the intensity ramp up on the Euro and some of the GFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 all 3 airports are under .3 qpf for the entire event Maybe it'll all be snow/sleet and then slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 A further north track might leave the second storm more room. Not on this run however. My initial call of 0.00 is correct to the nearest 100th of an inch if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Maybe it'll all be snow/sleet and then slot. nope there's the first 6 hrs when it warms and precips some; then the next 6 hrs it's above freezing aloft and ground there is a chance that there might be a brief change back to snow since the cold air comes right back in so quick after the storm maybe that will morph into something measurable as we get closer, idk the good news is that at day 7 things look to warm up maybe we can shuffle the atmosphere's deck, so to speak, and get into a more favorable pattern for Zwyt's target period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 nope there's the first 6 hrs when it warms and precips some; then the next 6 hrs it's above freezing aloft and ground there is a chance that there might be a brief change back to snow since the cold air comes right back in so quick after the storm maybe that will morph into something measurable as we get closer, idk the good news is that at day 7 things look to warm up maybe we can shuffle the atmosphere's deck, so to speak, and get into a more favorable pattern for Zwyt's target period Don't throw in the towel yet. Let's see how the next couple of days play out, let the models get a good handle on all of the pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 nope there's the first 6 hrs when it warms and precips some; then the next 6 hrs it's above freezing aloft and ground there is a chance that there might be a brief change back to snow since the cold air comes right back in so quick after the storm maybe that will morph into something measurable as we get closer, idk the good news is that at day 7 things look to warm up maybe we can shuffle the atmosphere's deck, so to speak, and get into a more favorable pattern for Zwyt's target period Don't forget that cold usually hangs on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 on Thursday at 1PM it is 26 degrees at DCA same time Friday it's 44 degrees lol It's not going to 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's not going to 44 why not? it got warmer than that at DCA and imby after Christmas eve storm melting the inch+ I received earlier that morning you guys stayed in the lower/mid 30's but it's diff here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 why not? it got warmer than that at DCA and imby after Christmas eve storm melting the inch+ I received earlier that morning you guys stayed in the lower/mid 30's but it's diff here Didn't you have a low to your se pumping in air off a fairly warm ocean at low levels? You're not going to have that this time. Are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Why are people trying to figure out temps 5 days away when temps today were wrong? Seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Long range looking warm...... Another tough year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Why are people trying to figure out temps 5 days away when temps today were wrong? Seriously To figure out the ratios, duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 why not? it got warmer than that at DCA and imby after Christmas eve storm melting the inch+ I received earlier that morning you guys stayed in the lower/mid 30's but it's diff here on 12/26 after the snow we got up into the low 40's even here before midnight. Probably alot tougher to do that with this airmass, but the way things are going who knows. I would glady take a replay of that event minus the brief warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Long range looking warm...... Another tough year We have to be +5 for this month at least. Just brutal. If Feb is +5 or better that has to be some sort of record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The Next 2 weeks our our chance, before the MJO moves back into the crap phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 only .29" falls at BWI; by Sat 6Z it's 24 degrees again it literally warms up to precipitate then gets immediately cold again and dries out It is almost funny. Phineas in 3...2...1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Congrats 40N, once again.......*sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Long range looking warm...... Another tough year Just around normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Whlie the next two weeks may be best chance based on the MJO, our chances during week two of this period look dicey. I see that the NAEFS from 00 UT today gives us a 70+% chance of above normal temperatures during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Congrats 40N, once again.......*sigh* hold up https://twitter.com/JustinWeather/status/293103692373184512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 hold up https://twitter.com/JustinWeather/status/293103692373184512 Mr. FAITH IN THE FLAKES. Lol at least he is consistent, if not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Mr. FAITH IN THE FLAKES. Lol at least he is consistent, if not correct. i don't necessarily disagree with the idea. i think the trends today are not particularly good ones but we probably have too much faith in models that are usually wrong with details at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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