mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 worse than last night the slp started out south of where it was at 0Z and it just shot NNE into the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 worse than last night the slp started out south of where it was at 0Z and it just shot NNE into the Great Lakes We gain about 18C at 850 in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We gain about 18C at 850 in 24 hours. it's hard to tell how everything is moving along with the 24 hr maps all the models show a lobe on the western flank of the PV dropping down and capturing the slp which takes it well to our west I bet Boston has probs with this one....999mb over Lake Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We gain about 18C at 850 in 24 hours. Doesn't sound like the depth and strength of the cold is all that impressive to get scoured out that easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Doesn't sound like the depth and strength of the cold is all that impressive to get scoured out that easily I dont think it's that, I think its that the shortwave takes long to come east so the confluence is gone by the time the low comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We gain about 18C at 850 in 24 hours. During that period how much precipitation do we get? It looks like it could be a little wetter just based on the 500h and surface looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Some of the GFS members blow this thing up like the Euro is doing now. The instant maps do show local 850's near zero as late as Fri morning. You'd have to imagine the surface would be plenty chilly. Anybody with precip totals as of Fri morning please share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 well...the euro gives us some front end snow at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 During that period how much precipitation do we get? It looks like it could be a little wetter just based on the 500h and surface looks. My thoughts exactly. That's why I ask for precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 During that period how much precipitation do we get? It looks like it could be a little wetter just based on the 500h and surface looks. DCA gets .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .14 qpf of snow likely with temps at about 29. 850 temps at -1 at JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 on Thursday at 1PM it is 26 degrees at DCA same time Friday it's 44 degrees lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .14 qpf of snow likely with temps at about 29. 850 temps at -1 at JYO I doubt that's all snow as thickness jumps to 543; there's some sleet with that from a warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Let's hope the trend is wet. We all know the cold hangs on longer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Let's hope the trend is wet. We all know the cold hangs on longer than forecast. Right now it feels like the trend is West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 only .29" falls at BWI; by Sat 6Z it's 24 degrees again it literally warms up to precipitate then gets immediately cold again and dries out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Let's hope the trend is wet. We all know the cold hangs on longer than forecast. all 3 airports are under .3 qpf for the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 only .29" falls at BWI; by Sat 6Z it's 24 degrees again it literally warms up to precipitate then gets immediately cold again and dries out +1 for phineas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Right now it feels like the trend is West I don't think it is. Maybe fro yesterday's Euro. The GFS has been fairly consistent with the position. What's jumping out at me is the intensity ramp up on the Euro and some of the GFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 all 3 airports are under .3 qpf for the entire event Maybe it'll all be snow/sleet and then slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 A further north track might leave the second storm more room. Not on this run however. My initial call of 0.00 is correct to the nearest 100th of an inch if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Maybe it'll all be snow/sleet and then slot. nope there's the first 6 hrs when it warms and precips some; then the next 6 hrs it's above freezing aloft and ground there is a chance that there might be a brief change back to snow since the cold air comes right back in so quick after the storm maybe that will morph into something measurable as we get closer, idk the good news is that at day 7 things look to warm up maybe we can shuffle the atmosphere's deck, so to speak, and get into a more favorable pattern for Zwyt's target period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 nope there's the first 6 hrs when it warms and precips some; then the next 6 hrs it's above freezing aloft and ground there is a chance that there might be a brief change back to snow since the cold air comes right back in so quick after the storm maybe that will morph into something measurable as we get closer, idk the good news is that at day 7 things look to warm up maybe we can shuffle the atmosphere's deck, so to speak, and get into a more favorable pattern for Zwyt's target period Don't throw in the towel yet. Let's see how the next couple of days play out, let the models get a good handle on all of the pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 nope there's the first 6 hrs when it warms and precips some; then the next 6 hrs it's above freezing aloft and ground there is a chance that there might be a brief change back to snow since the cold air comes right back in so quick after the storm maybe that will morph into something measurable as we get closer, idk the good news is that at day 7 things look to warm up maybe we can shuffle the atmosphere's deck, so to speak, and get into a more favorable pattern for Zwyt's target period Don't forget that cold usually hangs on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 on Thursday at 1PM it is 26 degrees at DCA same time Friday it's 44 degrees lol It's not going to 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's not going to 44 why not? it got warmer than that at DCA and imby after Christmas eve storm melting the inch+ I received earlier that morning you guys stayed in the lower/mid 30's but it's diff here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 why not? it got warmer than that at DCA and imby after Christmas eve storm melting the inch+ I received earlier that morning you guys stayed in the lower/mid 30's but it's diff here Didn't you have a low to your se pumping in air off a fairly warm ocean at low levels? You're not going to have that this time. Are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Why are people trying to figure out temps 5 days away when temps today were wrong? Seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Long range looking warm...... Another tough year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Why are people trying to figure out temps 5 days away when temps today were wrong? Seriously To figure out the ratios, duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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