usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Might be a good time to get the ice scraper tuned up just in case. 12z surface on Fri: 12zgfsice.JPG We'd probably start as snow but as progged it is not a very wet system since it really never gets enough amplitude to really tap deep moisture from the gulf. That means most of heavier precip will probably be on the north side of the low with the warm advection/isenttopic lift and them some showers with the trailing cold front. If it were a wetter system it would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'll let the others have fun with this one and wait until later in the week to see about front end details...a back end low seems kind of improbable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 A lot of things will change from now till Friday. I am going to hold my horses till Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'll let the others have fun with this one and wait until later in the week to see about front end details...a back end low seems kind of improbable The back end stuff rarely works and the GFS now has the scenario that looks more real for the back end. We need to have the system be wetter than it is on this run or our front end is going to be pretty wimpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'll let the others have fun with this one and wait until later in the week to see about front end details...a back end low seems kind of improbableOnly thing to really watch is maybe it can speed up a bit and juice up better south of the surface low as it approaches. There is an ok are of waa precip breaking out in the middle of the country in advance of the sw. Maybe it gets organized better. Who knows. I suppose we can continue to wish it south. It's not too late for that yet but we need an awful lot of help to the north. Trailing low prob wouldn't do much anyways. Not a good axis and no signs of that changing. Any wave would scoot unless something closes off. Highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The back end stuff rarely works and the GFS now has the scenario that looks more real for the back end. We need to have the system be wetter than it is on this run or our front end is going to be pretty wimpy. Some people are comparing this to 12/26, your thoughts? I feel like in a way it is similar, the front end overperformed for many, especially around Baltimore where I got 1.5 se of town. This situation has a different set up at h5 and a better antecedent airmass. You'd like to think that a similar thump would be there, only problem is we dont have a sub 998 working its way up, its a west east mover at 1000+. We need that low to deepen as you said, because there could be some cad and I could see a finger of HP working in between our clipper bombing off the MA and this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The back end stuff rarely works and the GFS now has the scenario that looks more real for the back end. We need to have the system be wetter than it is on this run or our front end is going to be pretty wimpy. When I saw the hour 114 panel I thought there might be enough room for a decent secondary to come closer but I guess it was wishful thinking. I am wrong in thinking the further north the first low gets the better chance for a back end low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Some people are comparing this to 12/26, your thoughts? I feel like in a way it is similar, the front end overperformed for many, especially around Baltimore where I got 1.5 se of town. This situation has a different set up at h5 and a better antecedent airmass. You'd like to think that a similar thump would be there, only problem is we dont have a sub 998 working its way up, its a west east mover at 1000+. We need that low to deepen as you said, because there could be some cad and I could see a finger of HP working in between our clipper bombing off the MA and this system. I'm concerned with how dry it looks. I guess will have to see how the disturbanc/clipper on Wednesday helps this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Anyone notice that this run is about 300 miles faster? It looks like the energy responsible for this is still well out over the Pacific. I don't have any idea how that area ranks on the data collection scale, but with as much variability just shown, I'd think we are still a bit away from clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm concerned with how dry it looks. I guess will have to see how the disturbanc/clipper on Wednesday helps this play out. That's my biggest concern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Some people are comparing this to 12/26, your thoughts? I feel like in a way it is similar, the front end overperformed for many, especially around Baltimore where I got 1.5 se of town. This situation has a different set up at h5 and a better antecedent airmass. You'd like to think that a similar thump would be there, only problem is we dont have a sub 998 working its way up, its a west east mover at 1000+. We need that low to deepen as you said, because there could be some cad and I could see a finger of HP working in between our clipper bombing off the MA and this system. Much weaker storm on the GFS. But as usual I believe the CAD will be under done on the models. Hopefully the storm will be stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS is far north and too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This run of the gfs is rain in Leesburg verbatim....just sayin....third different solution in two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This run of the gfs is rain in Leesburg verbatim....just sayin....third different solution in two days To me it is nice not to have a locked in snow solution only to have the football pulled away. It may end up being fun to track once the models catch on to the depth of the air mass. I am fine with a frozen to rain solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 FWIW, the gfs ens are not good either. I don't know that it matters. They're flopping around just like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 To me it is nice not to have a locked in snow solution only to have the football pulled away. It may end up being fun to track once the models catch on to the depth of the air mass. I am fine with a frozen to rain solution. I agree about it not being a locked in snow solution just yet....my post about being weary of long track events is just that...more painful to lose it close to the event vs. it never showing or surprising late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I agree about it not being a locked in snow solution just yet....my post about being weary of long track events is just that...more painful to lose it close to the event vs. it never showing or surprising late I'm not invested in this one. If we get something great. I am all in from about 2/5 til the end. If we crap the bed then, I will be upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We should all be a "little" invested. Coldest airmass of the year in front and late Jan climo. One of the better chances for snow in the cities this year. Low impact it appears but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 we "may" not get as bad a solution from the Euro today looking at day 4, but plenty of time to shiat the bed on the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 next ha beat ya' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 worse than last night the slp started out south of where it was at 0Z and it just shot NNE into the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 worse than last night the slp started out south of where it was at 0Z and it just shot NNE into the Great Lakes We gain about 18C at 850 in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We gain about 18C at 850 in 24 hours. it's hard to tell how everything is moving along with the 24 hr maps all the models show a lobe on the western flank of the PV dropping down and capturing the slp which takes it well to our west I bet Boston has probs with this one....999mb over Lake Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We gain about 18C at 850 in 24 hours. Doesn't sound like the depth and strength of the cold is all that impressive to get scoured out that easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Doesn't sound like the depth and strength of the cold is all that impressive to get scoured out that easily I dont think it's that, I think its that the shortwave takes long to come east so the confluence is gone by the time the low comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We gain about 18C at 850 in 24 hours. During that period how much precipitation do we get? It looks like it could be a little wetter just based on the 500h and surface looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Some of the GFS members blow this thing up like the Euro is doing now. The instant maps do show local 850's near zero as late as Fri morning. You'd have to imagine the surface would be plenty chilly. Anybody with precip totals as of Fri morning please share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 well...the euro gives us some front end snow at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 During that period how much precipitation do we get? It looks like it could be a little wetter just based on the 500h and surface looks. My thoughts exactly. That's why I ask for precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 During that period how much precipitation do we get? It looks like it could be a little wetter just based on the 500h and surface looks. DCA gets .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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