Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Lol euro and Gfs trade who goes north and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Day 4 Euro looks a lot like 12Z so far wrt the system being suppressed plenty time (in the run) to come north, I guess well, I was right, plenty of time in the run to come north, and it did so what's your point?....I was right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Euro went from 22 snow to 42 rain in on run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This run is good for Boston however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Euro went from 22 snow to 42 rain in on run It wasn't that warm was it? I'm stuck at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 nyc 850 temps jump 10 degrees C in 6 hrs and they get rain too lol what a winter fall we're having Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Euro is likely too amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I am so sick of having you have to post that, I want to scream wtf do we have to do around here it is worth watching...i imagine it could trend south...but no reason to get caught up now...or even 48 hrs out....i'll wait until we are on the brink....euro solution seems perfectly reasonable to me with the caveat that I do think it will be a closer call on the front end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Problem is euro is not cold before the storm. It's shows Tuesday -Thursday way warmer than recent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 it is worth watching...i imagine it could trend south...but no reason to get caught up now...or even 48 hrs out....i'll wait until we are on the brink....euro solution seems perfectly reasonable to me with the caveat that I do think it will be a closer call on the front end.... when the antecedent air mass is as cold as it has been around here in what, 5 years, and the best we can do is a brief period of sleet then rain, that pattern says winter is not over, it just never starts for us on the plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Does anyone further NW get snow on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Does anyone further NW get snow on the euro? even nyc turns to rain it seems Hartford on north is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Use the ensembles now. Gfs ensembles supressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Does the euro have the Wednesday disturbance? That seems to be the key to keeping the Friday storm cold enough, from what I've heard. Anyway, still 4+ days out, no reason to panic....yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Use the ensembles now. Gfs ensembles supressed more than the gfs operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 even nyc turns to rain it seems Hartford on north is safe Thanks no way to see from 24hr panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Use the ensembles now. Gfs ensembles supressed gfs ensembles look pretty much like the operational, for whatever solace that gives us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I've become weary of these long track events....5-6 days is far away. It will be interesting to see the many variations this event takes over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I've become weary of these long track events....5-6 days is far away. It will be interesting to see the many variations this event takes over the next few days Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Rain accurrate forecast for friday. Good call JI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS goes back to blah....also showing 60's again to end January.... For one day before it gets cold again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I think the models at this range will try to push out the cold air too quickly. Thats going to be tough to do east of the mountains. I also think its going to be hard for that low to make it as far north as they have it currently. The NAM and SREFS seem to like us getting a little snow tomorrow. Maybe we get lucky on that one a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 it is worth watching...i imagine it could trend south...but no reason to get caught up now...or even 48 hrs out....i'll wait until we are on the brink....euro solution seems perfectly reasonable to me with the caveat that I do think it will be a closer call on the front end.... I pretty much agree and note that the majority of ens members of GEFS are now to our north. The lack of any clear blocking suggests an OH valley solution before reformation to the east of the mountains. That probably screws us though we could have a period of snow and then freezing rain before changing over but it also doesn't look like a super wet system for us. Still it's too early to write it off completely. The back end is also worth watching though they never seem to work any more around here if they ever did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 There is a threat still, and doesn't the Euro have a second, trailing low forming off the NC coast? Verbatim it looks like some precip for parts of VA and Delmarva. Something to watch for in future runs. GFS has had this sort of depiction as well on several runs. Seems like there are going to be 2 lows, but much to be resolved with the current spread. I also don't believe an arctic air mass is going to be so quick to retreat as the Euro implies with the first(northern) low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 What happens with that system that pops off the ne coast has the ability to help us. Some guidance takes it all the way down to the mid 950's between the maritimes and greenland. Just too far north to act as a 50/50 but it can still help lock cold air in and protect a front end thump of snow for us. I was surprised that the euro took the system south yesterday and unfortunately wasn't surprised that it quickly changed it's mind. I won't buy into any second wave scenario until it's on top of us. Overall it's looking to remain a messy setup but can still drop some accum snow in the cities. Gotta crawl before you can walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Bob, it looks like we have two chances at flurries or snow showers this week prior to the stronger system. The 1st Monday afternoon looks like we might have a rain to snow shower/flurry with the front.trough coming through. It has little chance of producing any accumulations except where elevation might help. Then we have another Wednesday night which the NAm now trying to bring a clipper towards us. It will be interesting to see what the GSF does with that feature. The stronger it is, I think the better it would be for our chances of getting any front end snow with the Friday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looking at last nights runs, I dont believe at the end of the day we're going to see a strong primary going into the lakes and turning us over to rain. I've lived here long enough to see this scenario play out. 2007 had a couple good examples. 1) With the airmass in place this week (DPs will probably be in the low/mid teens on Thursday,) there's going to be a very solid in-situ wedge down the apps. The low is ony going to get so far up in latitude then jump to the coast at some point. 2) It's possible the primary does get up into SW PA depending on how strong the HP to our N actually is, and with the 700MB low to the NW, we have a warm nose up there at 750-800 MB. In that case its a matter of how much falls as snow vs. sleet/zr for those of us west of 95. 3) I don't think it will get out of the 20's on Friday for those west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I don't know about the great lakes but think the primary low is more likely to track into the oh valley than go to our south with makes the forecast really tricky since we will start out with cold air. The Euro and GFS are obviously having problems with the pattern even when looking at the ens mean. That said, the CPC superens mean D+8 would favor a track to our north. That does not mean the western guys out in Leesburg couldn't get a few inches of snow it things went right but makes it tough for us eastern guys to get an extended period of snow unless the low stays weak and then it probably would not have that much precip with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Might be a good time to get the ice scraper tuned up just in case. 12z surface on Fri: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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