mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Use the ensembles now. Gfs ensembles supressed gfs ensembles look pretty much like the operational, for whatever solace that gives us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I've become weary of these long track events....5-6 days is far away. It will be interesting to see the many variations this event takes over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I've become weary of these long track events....5-6 days is far away. It will be interesting to see the many variations this event takes over the next few days Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Rain accurrate forecast for friday. Good call JI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS goes back to blah....also showing 60's again to end January.... For one day before it gets cold again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I think the models at this range will try to push out the cold air too quickly. Thats going to be tough to do east of the mountains. I also think its going to be hard for that low to make it as far north as they have it currently. The NAM and SREFS seem to like us getting a little snow tomorrow. Maybe we get lucky on that one a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 it is worth watching...i imagine it could trend south...but no reason to get caught up now...or even 48 hrs out....i'll wait until we are on the brink....euro solution seems perfectly reasonable to me with the caveat that I do think it will be a closer call on the front end.... I pretty much agree and note that the majority of ens members of GEFS are now to our north. The lack of any clear blocking suggests an OH valley solution before reformation to the east of the mountains. That probably screws us though we could have a period of snow and then freezing rain before changing over but it also doesn't look like a super wet system for us. Still it's too early to write it off completely. The back end is also worth watching though they never seem to work any more around here if they ever did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 There is a threat still, and doesn't the Euro have a second, trailing low forming off the NC coast? Verbatim it looks like some precip for parts of VA and Delmarva. Something to watch for in future runs. GFS has had this sort of depiction as well on several runs. Seems like there are going to be 2 lows, but much to be resolved with the current spread. I also don't believe an arctic air mass is going to be so quick to retreat as the Euro implies with the first(northern) low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 What happens with that system that pops off the ne coast has the ability to help us. Some guidance takes it all the way down to the mid 950's between the maritimes and greenland. Just too far north to act as a 50/50 but it can still help lock cold air in and protect a front end thump of snow for us. I was surprised that the euro took the system south yesterday and unfortunately wasn't surprised that it quickly changed it's mind. I won't buy into any second wave scenario until it's on top of us. Overall it's looking to remain a messy setup but can still drop some accum snow in the cities. Gotta crawl before you can walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Bob, it looks like we have two chances at flurries or snow showers this week prior to the stronger system. The 1st Monday afternoon looks like we might have a rain to snow shower/flurry with the front.trough coming through. It has little chance of producing any accumulations except where elevation might help. Then we have another Wednesday night which the NAm now trying to bring a clipper towards us. It will be interesting to see what the GSF does with that feature. The stronger it is, I think the better it would be for our chances of getting any front end snow with the Friday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looking at last nights runs, I dont believe at the end of the day we're going to see a strong primary going into the lakes and turning us over to rain. I've lived here long enough to see this scenario play out. 2007 had a couple good examples. 1) With the airmass in place this week (DPs will probably be in the low/mid teens on Thursday,) there's going to be a very solid in-situ wedge down the apps. The low is ony going to get so far up in latitude then jump to the coast at some point. 2) It's possible the primary does get up into SW PA depending on how strong the HP to our N actually is, and with the 700MB low to the NW, we have a warm nose up there at 750-800 MB. In that case its a matter of how much falls as snow vs. sleet/zr for those of us west of 95. 3) I don't think it will get out of the 20's on Friday for those west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I don't know about the great lakes but think the primary low is more likely to track into the oh valley than go to our south with makes the forecast really tricky since we will start out with cold air. The Euro and GFS are obviously having problems with the pattern even when looking at the ens mean. That said, the CPC superens mean D+8 would favor a track to our north. That does not mean the western guys out in Leesburg couldn't get a few inches of snow it things went right but makes it tough for us eastern guys to get an extended period of snow unless the low stays weak and then it probably would not have that much precip with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Might be a good time to get the ice scraper tuned up just in case. 12z surface on Fri: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Might be a good time to get the ice scraper tuned up just in case. 12z surface on Fri: 12zgfsice.JPG We'd probably start as snow but as progged it is not a very wet system since it really never gets enough amplitude to really tap deep moisture from the gulf. That means most of heavier precip will probably be on the north side of the low with the warm advection/isenttopic lift and them some showers with the trailing cold front. If it were a wetter system it would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 A lot of things will change from now till Friday. I am going to hold my horses till Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'll let the others have fun with this one and wait until later in the week to see about front end details...a back end low seems kind of improbable The back end stuff rarely works and the GFS now has the scenario that looks more real for the back end. We need to have the system be wetter than it is on this run or our front end is going to be pretty wimpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'll let the others have fun with this one and wait until later in the week to see about front end details...a back end low seems kind of improbableOnly thing to really watch is maybe it can speed up a bit and juice up better south of the surface low as it approaches. There is an ok are of waa precip breaking out in the middle of the country in advance of the sw. Maybe it gets organized better. Who knows. I suppose we can continue to wish it south. It's not too late for that yet but we need an awful lot of help to the north. Trailing low prob wouldn't do much anyways. Not a good axis and no signs of that changing. Any wave would scoot unless something closes off. Highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The back end stuff rarely works and the GFS now has the scenario that looks more real for the back end. We need to have the system be wetter than it is on this run or our front end is going to be pretty wimpy. Some people are comparing this to 12/26, your thoughts? I feel like in a way it is similar, the front end overperformed for many, especially around Baltimore where I got 1.5 se of town. This situation has a different set up at h5 and a better antecedent airmass. You'd like to think that a similar thump would be there, only problem is we dont have a sub 998 working its way up, its a west east mover at 1000+. We need that low to deepen as you said, because there could be some cad and I could see a finger of HP working in between our clipper bombing off the MA and this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The back end stuff rarely works and the GFS now has the scenario that looks more real for the back end. We need to have the system be wetter than it is on this run or our front end is going to be pretty wimpy. When I saw the hour 114 panel I thought there might be enough room for a decent secondary to come closer but I guess it was wishful thinking. I am wrong in thinking the further north the first low gets the better chance for a back end low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Some people are comparing this to 12/26, your thoughts? I feel like in a way it is similar, the front end overperformed for many, especially around Baltimore where I got 1.5 se of town. This situation has a different set up at h5 and a better antecedent airmass. You'd like to think that a similar thump would be there, only problem is we dont have a sub 998 working its way up, its a west east mover at 1000+. We need that low to deepen as you said, because there could be some cad and I could see a finger of HP working in between our clipper bombing off the MA and this system. I'm concerned with how dry it looks. I guess will have to see how the disturbanc/clipper on Wednesday helps this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Anyone notice that this run is about 300 miles faster? It looks like the energy responsible for this is still well out over the Pacific. I don't have any idea how that area ranks on the data collection scale, but with as much variability just shown, I'd think we are still a bit away from clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm concerned with how dry it looks. I guess will have to see how the disturbanc/clipper on Wednesday helps this play out. That's my biggest concern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Some people are comparing this to 12/26, your thoughts? I feel like in a way it is similar, the front end overperformed for many, especially around Baltimore where I got 1.5 se of town. This situation has a different set up at h5 and a better antecedent airmass. You'd like to think that a similar thump would be there, only problem is we dont have a sub 998 working its way up, its a west east mover at 1000+. We need that low to deepen as you said, because there could be some cad and I could see a finger of HP working in between our clipper bombing off the MA and this system. Much weaker storm on the GFS. But as usual I believe the CAD will be under done on the models. Hopefully the storm will be stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS is far north and too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This run of the gfs is rain in Leesburg verbatim....just sayin....third different solution in two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 FWIW, the gfs ens are not good either. I don't know that it matters. They're flopping around just like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 To me it is nice not to have a locked in snow solution only to have the football pulled away. It may end up being fun to track once the models catch on to the depth of the air mass. I am fine with a frozen to rain solution. I agree about it not being a locked in snow solution just yet....my post about being weary of long track events is just that...more painful to lose it close to the event vs. it never showing or surprising late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We should all be a "little" invested. Coldest airmass of the year in front and late Jan climo. One of the better chances for snow in the cities this year. Low impact it appears but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 we "may" not get as bad a solution from the Euro today looking at day 4, but plenty of time to shiat the bed on the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 next ha beat ya' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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