Yorkpa25 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Thanks guys for all your knowledge I really enjoy reading everyone's opinion. Ill just post less fine with me. This was a Friday/Saturday storm correct but is it looking to maybe effect our region on Thursday? Just wondering the timeline for this potential? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 18z GFS is good if you like mix/rain That seems weird. I suppose it's possible, but I can see this moving toward the Euro solution. I just want to see it wet. I think the cold is an ally this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 for you yes...I'll assume this will go north and essentially screw us until it happens I think the opposite. I think it trends more south, especially the transfer, and sends precip into a colder airmass than we've seen so far. Of course I trust your thoughts more than my own, but I think you probably trust the Euro more on this occasion. I think we all are a bit wary and afraid to believe in a best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 for you yes...I'll assume this will go north and essentially screw us until it happens Well one thing we have going for us- the arctic air will be in place and its usually pretty stubborn to move out. Models tend to do this too fast. Plus its not a wholesale pattern change we are looking at coming in behind this storm...more cold reloads after. And the Euro for 2 runs has a better track than the GFS. That being said, we have been screwed every which way the last 2 winters. So I have decided I am not going to look at the models till mid week. Focus on the Ravens tomorrow, and enjoy the cold weather for the balance of the week, I'll check back around Wednesday. Ha who am i kidding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 who cares...it is an estimate based on one model run that will change...so you are a weenie...just know that......Wes is a QPF expert so he can add more value...our average ratio is 11:1, so you should probably stick with that for a juicy system coming from the west I think until you can look at soundings, it's best to use the 11-1 average for our area, especially with a "juicy storm" It's somewhat encouraging that the thee GEFS ensembles based on eh 12Z run are pretty well divided between a northern track and one that would be to our south. Right now I have no clear inclination of which model to choose though I might favor the Tn or oh valley track putting a low near the euro ens mean by a little but not by an awful lot. Even that track should give us some winter weather I'd think. I had to edit the post as I had looked at the 12 GEFS not the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I see a decent zr event coming out of this, especially in the burbs, before any changeover to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I see a decent zr event coming out of this, especially in the burbs, before any changeover to plain rain. I think the cold will be too deep. If we can get a good slug of precip I think we will see some acc snow. Of course this is still way out there so I feel silly talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I see a decent zr event coming out of this, especially in the burbs, before any changeover to plain rain. Sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I would think we can get snow at the front before it changes to zr. Id imagine we'd have COld air lodged at the mid levels too. This is a pretty formidable air mass. Similar to 1/27/09 though this one may be fresher a week from now than that one was at that point. That storm may be a good analog. Will have to look. South and East had decent amounts...3" or so....about 1.8" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 you know, don't forget folks that 4 days ago, the operational Euro had this storm in almost the identical location at Day 10 and was set to give us snow so I don't know why everyone is thinking this is some fluke run or something since its initial prog of the storm is virtually today's 12z run EDIT: today's prog is even colder, but this is the 10 day Euro from Tuesday of this week http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013011512!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I imagine the storm will go to our north and west. Looks like PG county also had a .25" of ice as well as 2-3" decent event overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I've become weary of these long track events....5-6 days is far away. It will be interesting to see the many variations this event takes over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If the storm disappears from the models in a couple days, then people look like fools for talking about specifics right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I had 2" before it changed over. That was a decent storm, but it under performed to a certain degree. The forecast here was a wsw for 3-5 then sleet freezing rain. We came up short on the snow even though the change to sleet didn't happen for about 12 hours. Only got about 2-2.5 because the precip struggled to come north until late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If the storm disappears from the models in a couple days, then people look like fools for talking about specifics right now. dang; there goes my poll idea for guessing DCA's sea level pressure, pressure tendency, rate of rise/fall, wind direction and speed, and dp at 8:25 A.M. on 1/25/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 dang; there goes my poll idea for guessing DCA's sea level pressure, pressure tendency, rate of rise/fall, wind direction and speed, and dp at 8:25 A.M. on 1/25/13 You forgot the ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 looks like the gfs is heading toward the 12z euro for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 yep snowing in dc ric by 7am friday -- ric goes to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 looks like the gfs is heading toward the 12z euro for friday I was just about to say the same thing. Looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 0.50" in dc by hr 138 all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I don't know what to say there's no Low in the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I don't know what to say there's no Low in the Great Lakes The ns isn't all juiced. Why the change? Good luck? Pretty simple setup imo. Batch of waa precip with no ns surface low. I'll take that all day long over some jacked up convoluted wtf setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 not as cold as the Euro but definitely all snow at DCA, IAD and BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The ns isn't all juiced. Why the change? Good luck? Pretty simple setup imo. Batch of waa precip with no ns surface low. I'll take that all day long over some jacked up convoluted wtf setup. sort of reminds me of how 12/5/02 started to look 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 sort of reminds me of how 12/5/02 started to look 3 days out Mitch, was a 6-8" event around Baltimore IIRC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Not surprised to see this move away from the north tracking low. Let's hope the Euro holds and this keeps trending wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Mitch, was a 6-8" event around Baltimore IIRC? I know, and I'm not saying that's what we'll get it's just that a few days out 12/5/02 went from going to our north starting with a 12z NAM run (which I obviously still remember) Stormtracker and I were going crazy; it actually started out with qpf between .24-.5 and then gradually increased again, I'm not suggesting that will happen here, just that the synoptic proged a few days look similar if my recollection is still with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 dream storm...cold snow...powder. I wish it wasn't so far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 dream storm...cold snow...powder. I wish it wasn't so far away Euro never wrong.. Plus you canceled winter to help our mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 dream storm...cold snow...powder. I wish it wasn't so far away it only seems far away because it's been 3 years since we had a storm anything like it area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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