Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[Ian]

the winter of 2001\02 had a better snowstorm than we have seen the past 2 years

i might have to revise down my 2" call for the rest of winter at dca

[Ji]

i might have to revise down my 2" call for the rest of winter at dca

It's not snowing again this year. There is just no way it's happening. It's severely obvious

[Ji]

i might have to revise down my 2" call for the rest of winter at dca

Not sure how DC sees 2 inches but good luck with that

[Ian]

Not sure how DC sees 2 inches but good luck with that

we only need like 8 more clippers

[SnowGoose69]

It's not snowing again this year. There is just no way it's happening. It's severely obvious

 

[Ji]

Not sure how its suppose to snow when its either not cold enough but more commonly there is no precip

[Ian]

Not sure how its suppose to snow when its either not cold enough but more commonly there is no precip

the biggest problem might be that every good storm is a cutter

[Ji]

Yep. You just made my point

[bhamwx205]

and very warm. bad combo

lol and changes every run. gfs has been too warm in the lr and always cools

[WEATHER53]

Late Wednesday into Thursday looks like Mega Front action.  30* temperaturde drop in 12 hours.

[BlizzardNole]

DCA has 1.0" of snowfall for the winter so far....I wonder if there is any correlation between DCA recording several straight days of 32 or below (DCA had four from last Tue-Fri), and total snowfall?  It just seems that in the real shutout winters that DCA hardly had any 32-or-below days, let alone several in a row.

 

I have hope for February.

[Ian]

DCA has 1.0" of snowfall for the winter so far....I wonder if there is any correlation between DCA recording several straight days of 32 or below (DCA had four from last Tue-Fri), and total snowfall?  It just seems that in the real shutout winters that DCA hardly had any 32-or-below days, let alone several in a row.

 

I have hope for February.

worked out in 07 and 09 tho 09 was perhaps a fluke.

[Bob Chill]

This winter has been almost exclusively pac driven. The nao has been mostly positive since around the 21st of Dec. It's also been mostly. inside of +/- 1sd throughout the winter. The only time it was significantly negative was during the first half of december but it was rendered completely useles because the -pna/crap pac pattern. 

 

The AO has been negative door to door so far except for a small blip around Jan 10th or so. But the only time we see any cold is when the pna is positive. It's an obvious connection but still, having the ao go below -2 and still not have any cold air at times here is a testament to the power of the pac this winter. 

 

 

 

Some serious mixed signals coming up. As you can see above, some ens guidance wants to spike the AO to as high as +3 in about a week. I've seen this several times though this winter but we've never lost that blocking signal. As the AO rises toward 0 it has managed to drop back every time. Will this time be different? I don't think so because it's been such an entrenched pattern this winter. Also, looking @ the polar 500 loops, even though there are some lower heights near the pole, I think the index reading is picking up on the PV retreating before reasserting itself in similar fashion to what we are seeing now. 

 

 

 

As expected, the big +ao on ens guidance from 4 days ago is already muted and it looks like my hedge toward the index dropping solidly negative is probably an ok call. I think the big + spike had to do with the pv getting close to the pole but I'm not sure. If so, the + forecast was never a big deal because the pv is practically free to roam all over canada. Maybe we can get some real blocking established in favorable hl locations or maybe not. It's been elusive so far.

 

This is what ens guidance looked like 4 days ago:

 

 

 

 

And here's how it looks now:

 

 

 

 

PNA has a better look on ens guidance too. This is an important part of having any chance at frozen around here unless we can get a -nao going. A -nao is showing up on the globals but until it's starting us in the face it's best to assume it won't be helping anytime soon.

 

 

MJO still progged for 8-1 at least. We'll see how that shakes out. I don't think it provides any type of guaranty or high chance that it has a profound effect on our area unless other things work in tandem but I don't know squat on the topic so I'll defer to those who do. 

 

I see a lot of folks less than thrilled about the op runs lately. I'm not sure where it's coming from. Is it just because there are no decent snowstorms in the mid - lr? I'm not sure I even want one there. Quick flow makes d5+ completely unreliable for sw features. The bigger picture looks ok to me at least. Enough support with the lw features to not cancel anything. I'll stick with wait and see and not cancel until a pac zonal or -pna / ridge east  shows up as a stable feature. For right now it looks like it *can* snow if Feb. 

[mitchnick]

worked out in 07 and 09 tho 09 was perhaps a fluke.

perhaps??? 

 

when you come down to it, we had 2 weeks in DEC and 12 days starting JAN 30

 

yeah, it was a fluke

[Ian]

perhaps???

when you come down to it, we had 2 weeks in DEC and 12 days starting JAN 30

yeah, it was a fluke

Was talking about Mar 09. Snows after cold spell/s.

[mitchnick]

Was talking about Mar 09. Snows after cold spell/s.

oops, my bad

[Wonderdog]

Does the NAM give us some white stuff once the front goes through this week?

[usedtobe]

Does the NAM give us some white stuff once the front goes through this week?

nO

[usedtobe]

Bob,

 

Unfortunately the mean pattern still isn't that good at least on the superens D+11 which has done a pretty good job on showing when we will be cold or not and when we will have clipper type chances.  Today's D+11 only had one snow snow event within the 7 day window and that was a 1 incher, it had another 1 incher one day out of the window.

If you composite the analogs, you end up with two cool days and then it goes to sligtly above normal temps. While the modesl have not done very well beyond day 5 in getting the storms right, that's different than getting the basic pattern idea down and in the latter they do have some skill out to 2 weeks. 

 

 

The bove isn't a good look if you want snow.  I don't think the euro D+10 is either as you are already warming up canada and the plains by day 10.  Our chances for snow look to be clippers sometime after this coming front gets through probalby in the next 5-7 days and right now the models seem to be backing away from the nice clipper idea.

 

The 06Z GEFS does start having a little better look way out there in time.  At least it has hints of a southern stream while also having a ridge poking up into canada.   That gives more potential beyond the 11 or so. 

 

 

I was feeling better about the pattern until I looked closer. Now i think for decent storms chances, we might have lost the 1st third of Feb unless we get a clipper. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

The hits just keep on comin!

[clueless]

Sigh.

[usedtobe]

The hits just keep on comin!

 

I do see the pattern getting better for chances at a 4 inch type event but not until after about the 12th.  Of course that's a WAG as no one has much accuracy that far out. 

[Heisy]

I dont know wes, I know it's just one run, but this pattern has some significant potential!

 

12z GFS

 

 

Theres a shortwave that would dive down to reinforce the cold and that southern jet means business. I think this pattern if it verified would yield a big storm. 

[Bob Chill]

Wes, with all due respect, those same centered means were showing "ok" chances at snow just a few days ago. But I don't disagree about a 4+ inch event attm. There are 2 possible clippers on the gfs op right now and some more interesting looks down the rd. 

 

The -nao (east based) is showing again. I think we're going to get some sort of block going. I've seen various looks for a couple days and it's becoming more clear. The devils in the details though because east based can still favor a west track or miller b's. Neither do much good. But, chances of something riding beneath us or some sort of front end snow / dryslot seem to be increasing a little bit. 

 

We have a long ways to go. My post this morning was more about how the pattern isn't totally fooked like some folks seem to think. That's all I was saying.  Drop a +nao and -pna into the mix and then it will be a meteorlogical impossibility to get snow. lol 

[Bob Chill]

I dont know wes, I know it's just one run, but this pattern has some significant potential!

 

12z GFS

 

beautiful.gif

 

Theres a shortwave that would dive down to reinforce the cold and that southern jet means business. I think this pattern if it verified would yield a big storm. 

 

Verbatim, there is nothing in the way though. Without a -nao (or deep ec trough w/ 50/50), any closed low coming into CA is going to end up west or well west. Things look a bit better later in the run but that's so far out in the future it doesn't mean much yet. 

[Ji]

another terrible gfs run

[mitchnick]

another terrible gfs run

might I suggest you post more often.....like every 6 hours   

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Verbatim, there is nothing in the way though. Without a -nao (or deep ec trough w/ 50/50), any closed low coming into CA is going to end up west or well west. Things look a bit better later in the run but that's so far out in the future it doesn't mean much yet. 

 

Agree.  I wasn't overly impressed by how the 12Z GFS looked to be honest, at least looping through a couple of fields.  Actually, I could almost say the same thing for several other cycles in the past couple or so days in the longer range...not to sound overly pessimistic here.  There is no blocking, the cold air and vortex look to me to be lifting well northward in general other than a couple of small incursions of colder air (presumably behind fronts).  That "fantasy" strom at the end of the run would be great...but it has almost no cold air associated with it except well to the west (and marginal at that), and there's no high pressure anywhere in Canada.

 

Gah, maybe things will shake up better and change in time, we are talking about day 10+ here.  Seems only a few days ago that the "longer range" looked pretty darned good.  Last several ensemble mean looks have been not too bad though, at least in terms of appearing "colder."  I'm not prepared (yet!!) to throw in the towel on February (hasn't yet even started) or for the chances on some kind of event before winter is over.

[usedtobe]

Wes, with all due respect, those same centered means were showing "ok" chances at snow just a few days ago. But I don't disagree about a 4+ inch event attm. There are 2 possible clippers on the gfs op right now and some more interesting looks down the rd. 

 

The -nao (east based) is showing again. I think we're going to get some sort of block going. I've seen various looks for a couple days and it's becoming more clear. The devils in the details though because east based can still favor a west track or miller b's. Neither do much good. But, chances of something riding beneath us or some sort of front end snow / dryslot seem to be increasing a little bit. 

 

We have a long ways to go. My post this morning was more about how the pattern isn't totally fooked like some folks seem to think. That's all I was saying.  Drop a +nao and -pna into the mix and then it will be a meteorlogical impossibility to get snow. lol 

 

They actually only showed one decent storm and a bunch a clippers so the last mean was OK for snow but hardly spectacular and was not saying there would be a big one.  The only decent (4 inch or more)  storm that showed up was 1996.  The GFS certainly looks more interesting than the mean or the ens means with it's quicker handling and development of southern stream but it still is somewhat of an outlier though to be honest none of the models have been that good.  I agree that the pattern for Feb is not lost but think it also is not yet that good. 

[Grothar of Herndon]

Agree.  I wasn't overly impressed by how the 12Z GFS looked to be honest, at least looping through a couple of fields.  Actually, I could almost say the same thing for several other cycles in the past couple or so days in the longer range...not to sound overly pessimistic here.  There is no blocking, the cold air and vortex look to me to be lifting well northward in general other than a couple of small incursions of colder air (presumably behind fronts).  That "fantasy" strom at the end of the run would be great...but it has almost no cold air associated with it except well to the west (and marginal at that), and there's no high pressure anywhere in Canada.

 

Gah, maybe things will shake up better and change in time, we are talking about day 10+ here.  Seems only a few days ago that the "longer range" looked pretty darned good.  Last several ensemble mean looks have been not too bad though, at least in terms of appearing "colder."  I'm not prepared (yet!!) to throw in the towel on February (hasn't yet even started) or for the chances on some kind of event before winter is over.

As WinterWxLuvr points out often and correctly no need to get to attached to any one model run. If you don't like the most recent run, just wait as it will change on the next one. I am encouraged by seeing south stream activity on the last couple of GFS runs. Let's not get to worried about temps or storm track. Just good to see precip and in some cases lot of precip showing up.