CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Hey what are potential ratios for DCA/ IAD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 BRRRRRRRRRRRR after the storm yup http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'm really starting to believe in aob normal temps with only very brief breaks in between for the next 3+ weeks. Everything is coming together in a reasonable way to give the eastern half of the country a really nice cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 those temps are like the Kennedy Inaug. storm surface temps around 23 when the snow starts...bring it on...too bad the storm will probably go to our west and we will get front ended and change to a mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'm really starting to believe in aob normal temps with only very brief breaks in between for the next 3+ weeks. Everything is coming together in a reasonable way to give the eastern half of the country a really nice cold spell. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Total weenie for actually asking the question, but all of you are lying if you didn't look at those temps and think "thank god, this won't be 6:1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Liking it so far. I think it will be hard for a low to make it as far north as the GFS tried to do. I still would love the same track as the Christmas storm. The air in front of this one would do the trick for everybody, not just the 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Total weenie for actually asking the question, but all of you are lying if you didn't look at those temps and think "thank god, this won't be 6:1". I love wet snow...so much more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Single digit temps Saturday morning on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 yes I think the first half of Feb should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 surface temps around 23 when the snow starts...bring it on...too bad the storm will probably go to our west and we will get front ended and change to a mix I don't think a front ender is bad in this case. Too much cold this go around. I much prefer the wetter track. Imagine the Christmas precip with 850's 5-10 colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I love wet snow...so much more impressive. Easy for you to say. lol. Wet snow here usually means rain. We dream about arctic fluff while you ne'ers shovel with leaf blowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 NYC 2006 storm produced 27". The water content was so low If you sneezed you were down to 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 surface temps around 23 when the snow starts...bring it on...too bad the storm will probably go to our west and we will get front ended and change to a mix idk, Forky, who's been pretty good so far this season, said he thinks suppression for NE is what's likely in this pattern and considering what just happened,....we'll see after looking at those relatively crummy (unless you convert them to pdf and enlarge them) maps at the Euro site that show 850 temps superimposed over 500mb heights, I'm feeling pretty good this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The euro is always right. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The euro is always right. Book it. except w/in 24 hrs of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The euro is always right. Book it. Seems like its been ok inside of this range. Any verification info to pass on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I don't think a front ender is bad in this case. Too much cold this go around. I much prefer the wetter track. Imagine the Christmas precip with 850's 5-10 colder. I wouldn't mind several inches with a front ender just as long as we dry slot or turn to light freezing drizzle. I hate a steady period of plain rain where temps spike into the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Seems like its been ok inside of this range. Any verification info to pass on? It's verification scores, AFAIK, are highest of any model every winter. doesnt mean it isnt wrong...It is wrong often, especially outside of a certain range and it is beaten sometimes...the best baseball team still loses 60 games a season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I said 12:1 15:1 ratio yesterday n got torn apart for it. But as you can see it is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 If you look at the 850mb maps there is really good forcing over that cold dome on Day 6 Euro. There would be a couple hours of some heavy rates at least, if it verifies. Wouldn't surprise me if the temps stayed in the teens for the event. The low doesn't stand a chance of moving NW of here unless the surface HP and cold dome is severly over strengthened in error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I wouldn't mind several inches with a front ender just as long as we dry slot or turn to light freezing drizzle. I hate a steady period of plain rain where temps spike into the 40's. that is very unlikely...we will start out frozen if we can get precip in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 It's verification scores, AFAIK, are highest of any model every winter. doesnt mean it isnt wrong...It is wrong often, especially outside of a certain range and it is beaten sometimes...the best baseball team still loses 60 games a season bazeball not been berry gud to uz dis' year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I said 12:1 15:1 ratio yesterday n got torn apart for it. But as you can see it is possible who cares...it is an estimate based on one model run that will change...so you are a weenie...just know that......Wes is a QPF expert so he can add more value...our average ratio is 11:1, so you should probably stick with that for a juicy system coming from the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I said 12:1 15:1 ratio yesterday n got torn apart for it. But as you can see it is possible You weren't torn apart because it's not reasonable...you get torn apart because it's ridiculous to talk about this far out. The pattern and the setup is the thing to talk about. Ratios can vary wildly even in cold air masses. People focus too much on specifics too far out. And yes...as zwyts said - even in our big storms the ratios aren't all that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I said 12:1 15:1 ratio yesterday n got torn apart for it. But as you can see it is possible Mostly because talking ratios is useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I said 12:1 15:1 ratio yesterday n got torn apart for it. But as you can see it is possible First of all, you weren't really torn apart (I was one of them). Second, as others have said, those of us that made comments regarding your question were referring to the fact that you were asking about ratios 7 days before an event. Ratios that high are certainly possible but to discuss anything other than the track and maybe temps, is crazy talk at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Mostly because talking ratios is useless oh no, you guys aren't going to make "usefulness" a requirement in all posts, are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro run nicely points to where the cold air will be around day 10! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Day 10 looks like a slight relaxation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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