midatlanticweather Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I need a Bob Chill, Usetobe.. SOMEONE pep talk about some cold and potential snow. Larry Cosgrove threw a bone in his long range, but I kind of feel like he always does! Is there any hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I need a Bob Chill, Usetobe.. SOMEONE pep talk about some cold and potential snow. Larry Cosgrove threw a bone in his long range, but I kind of feel like he always does! Is there any hope? "In reality, hope is the worst of all evils, because it prolongs the torments of man." -- Friedrich Nietzsche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I need a Bob Chill, Usetobe.. SOMEONE pep talk about some cold and potential snow. Larry Cosgrove threw a bone in his long range, but I kind of feel like he always does! Is there any hope? Nothing is clear or will be until after the rainer is resolved. Clipper Friday-ish consistently on the panels. Would like the vort to have a better pass south bit that is prob asking too much. The big spike with the ao that ens guidance was picking up on is already getting muted and a drop back to neg territory is quite likely. This has been a recurring theme. Gfs keeps hinting at a -nao and gefs is starting to agree. Looks mostly east based and not stable but it's out in time so much can change. Pac ridge has legs and that is never a bad thing. Active precip pattern looks to start next week. No way of really knowing what side we end up on yet. No sign of a torch at all. Seasonable to below looks to hang on for a while. Overall pattern seems to have ok potential but nothing classic on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 06Z NAM in its long range (so take it with a grain of salt) looks somewhat interesting. Develops a potent low (991mb in N Alabama and Miss) on the trailing cold front and then begins to bring it up. Looking at the 500's they probably imply that it would bring it up just to our west. Might be something to keep an eye to see if the other models might begin to hint at this. I can't find any other guidance in line with this. I suppose anything is possible, but call me skeptical of this. It's almost humorous to watch storm after storm form and ride up the front side of these massive troughs we've had. It would be great to get a trough whose axis wasn't off the east coast just one time. All joking aside about extrapolating the 84-h NAM, but I do recall seeing a similar vort on the GFS now and then late last week, though not as strong as what the NAM has. There was also a secondary (or whatever) surface low that rode up the front either just to our west or right over us. It wasn't snow by any means, but looked quite interesting from a convective potential standpoint. There was a good line of heavy precip, and on the GFS cycles that depicted the secondary low, the QPF field had a "scalloped" look (or "convective", if you will). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I need a Bob Chill, Usetobe.. SOMEONE pep talk about some cold and potential snow. Larry Cosgrove threw a bone in his long range, but I kind of feel like he always does! Is there any hope? Nothing is clear or will be until after the rainer is resolved. Clipper Friday-ish consistently on the panels. Would like the vort to have a better pass south bit that is prob asking too much. The big spike with the ao that ens guidance was picking up on is already getting muted and a drop back to neg territory is quite likely. This has been a recurring theme. Gfs keeps hinting at a -nao and gefs is starting to agree. Looks mostly east based and not stable but it's out in time so much can change. Pac ridge has legs and that is never a bad thing. Active precip pattern looks to start next week. No way of really knowing what side we end up on yet. No sign of a torch at all. Seasonable to below looks to hang on for a while. Overall pattern seems to have ok potential but nothing classic on the horizon. Bob. you have now reached super-weenie status where other weenies look to you for positive inspiration. Congrats. My own view is that after our next cold spell temps go more towards seasonal with the usual ups and downs as the lows continue to track to our north and warm us but then the mostly positive pna helps cool us back down behind the fronts but that's a wag. I still see our best chances for snow as being clippers during the 6-10 day period or with a miller b that gives us front end love. I'm not ready to completely write off Feb or early March as by then you usually start seeing some cut off form which by default gives a little southern stream type possibilities. However, I would take the under on 8" for the season if I were a betting may and am not sure I would bet Ian about his 5 inch call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Bob. you have now reached super-weenie status where other weenies look to you for positive inspiration. Congrats. My own view is that after our next cold spell temps go more towards seasonal with the usual ups and downs as the lows continue to track to our north and warm us but then the mostly positive pna helps cool us back down behind the fronts but that's a wag. I still see our best chances for snow as being clippers during the 6-10 day period or with a miller b that gives us front end love. I'm not ready to completely write off Feb or early March as by then you usually start seeing some cut off form which by default gives a little southern stream type possibilities. However, I would take the under on 8" for the season if I were a betting may and am not sure I would bet Ian about his 5 inch call. In terms of salt accumulations on the roads of DC, I'd take over on 8". Then again, that's a good bet any year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 So what kind of icing should we expect across the region tomorrow morning? Enough to make the commute a PITA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 So what kind of icing should we expect across the region tomorrow morning? Enough to make the commute a PITA? Probably just glazing mainly west of BR... maybe up to a tenth in the more favorable spots i.e. valleys in I-81 corridor region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALLACUS48 KWNS 270930SPC AC 270930DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0330 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013VALID 301200Z - 041200Z...DISCUSSION...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCETHAT A POWERFUL AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE RAPIDPROGRESS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH LATE D4/WEDNESDAY. A MIDLEVEL WIND MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THEBASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COINCIDENTWITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODELS ALSOSUGGEST THAT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLYIMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A PLUMEOF AT LEAST 1.5 INCH PW VALUES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS PHL AREA BYWEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM LATEST EC ANDGFS MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION AND/OR RESURGENCE OF CONVECTIONALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE FRONT AMIDST INTENSE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.WHILE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA WILL REMAIN LOW...EXPECTBOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING TO BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TOSUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACEWITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THECONVECTIVE LINE.THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ALL BUT FAR SRN FL BYD5/THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TOSHUT DOWN FURTHER PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AT LEASTTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...CARBIN.. 01/27/2013CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Bob. you have now reached super-weenie status where other weenies look to you for positive inspiration. Congrats. My own view is that after our next cold spell temps go more towards seasonal with the usual ups and downs as the lows continue to track to our north and warm us but then the mostly positive pna helps cool us back down behind the fronts but that's a wag. I still see our best chances for snow as being clippers during the 6-10 day period or with a miller b that gives us front end love. I'm not ready to completely write off Feb or early March as by then you usually start seeing some cut off form which by default gives a little southern stream type possibilities. However, I would take the under on 8" for the season if I were a betting may and am not sure I would bet Ian about his 5 inch call. lol- i can't say I'm inspired by much. Not discouraged or anything because it could be much worse but no warm fuzzies until we can get some sort of low pressure to pass below us. Hasn't happened much at all this winter. There are hints of ridging near gl. Mostly east based and not long lasting. I guess you can't complain about nickel and dime chances all things considered. No weenies east of the rockies are all that happy about this winter. Pretty much a dud so far. TWC naming a weak clipper says a lot. lol I should put a disclaimer in my weenie posts now. "only highlighting what *could* go right for us. For everything that can go right, 20 things can go wrong". My fingers would get arthritis posting what can go wrong with every setup. ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270930 SPC AC 270930 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39021-2013-mid-atlantic-severe-general-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39021-2013-mid-atlantic-severe-general-discussion/ Oops.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 am to 10 am EST Monday... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain and sleet... which is in effect from 5 am to 10 am EST Monday. * Precipitation type... freezing rain... possibly mixed with sleet at the onset. * Accumulations... a few hundredths of an inch of ice from freezing rain. Little or no sleet accumulation. * Timing... developing before dawn and continuing through mid morning on Monday. * Temperatures... around 30. * Winds... south around 10 mph. * Impacts... icing will produce slippery conditions on untreated roads... bridges and sidewalks... particularly during the Monday morning commute. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 euro pretty boring thru day 10 other than the cold front. d10 might be lookin sorta ok extrapolated but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Hm calling for feb 8-10 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Hm calling for feb 8-10 storm I'm actually not surprised he's saying that. It's been a blip on my radar for a few days...though I wouldn't put my neck out there just yet. Too many variables between now and then, but historically...that's a good time for snow. But if I were in his shoes, I don't know that I'd be squeezing the GFS for life (Seems like every time someone squeezes it, rain comes out) That being said, making a statement 13 days out is a good way to boost your credibility...if it happens. If it doesn't look favorable in 5-6 days, it can just be easily dismissed as model-mayhem. It's part of the game some of us play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Hm calling for feb 8-10 storm It'd only be fitting. My parents are coming into town for my son's 1st b-day as well as flying out of country that same weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 euro pretty boring thru day 10 other than the cold front. d10 might be lookin sorta ok extrapolated but who knows. What day 10 are you looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 What day 10 are you looking ati was reaching.. it looks kinda crappy but -nao might be nosing in etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 18z Gfs run easily worst of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 18z Gfs run easily worst of the winter Cutter after cutter after cutter. Some hints of 50s in the long range too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Seems like we have two possibilities for light snow Super Bowl weekend and possibly a more juicy event in two Thursdays. Looks like to me it was a pretty good run, especially for this year. Also, is it not true that the "off-runs" lack some of the data that the 0z and 12z runs have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Seems like we have two possibilities for light snow Super Bowl weekend and possibly a more juicy event in two Thursdays. Looks like to me it was a pretty good run, especially for this year. Also, is it not true that the "off-runs" lack some of the data that the 0z and 12z runs have? In regards to the possibilities: Thursday is just darned depressing for snow lovers, but - severe wx in winter doesn't always have to be snow! The 'Off Runs' (6z/18z) actually don't have a great deal of difference when compared to 0z/12z, with the typical exception of there being freshly ingested data for an inbound 'big weather maker' For example: Large potential snowstorm headed for the EC. You may find that in this scenario, if a flight gets run at 11am EC Time//1600Z, the 18z is going to have the most current data, and the 0z may have older data. Generally speaking though, while there may be fewer aircraft observations at flight level for an off run (say 06z, since that places us in the middle of the night) - there isn't really enough of a difference that I consistently throw out the 6z/18z runs. A model is only as good as the data it receives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 In regards to the possibilities: Thursday is just darned depressing for snow lovers, but - severe wx in winter doesn't always have to be snow! The 'Off Runs' (6z/18z) actually don't have a great deal of difference when compared to 0z/12z, with the typical exception of there being freshly ingested data for an inbound 'big weather maker' For example: Large potential snowstorm headed for the EC. You may find that in this scenario, if a flight gets run at 11am EC Time//1600Z, the 18z is going to have the most current data, and the 0z may have older data. Generally speaking though, while there may be fewer aircraft observations at flight level for an off run (say 06z, since that places us in the middle of the night) - there isn't really enough of a difference that I consistently throw out the 6z/18z runs. A model is only as good as the data it receives. Agreed. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Eh, the Feb 5th time period has just enough interest to have me keep an eye on it... besides that not much else on this 00z GFS run. Clipper on Friday looks like a few snow showers at best as the h5 heads through PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 this run sucks again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Eh, the Feb 5th time period has just enough interest to have me keep an eye on it... besides that not much else on this 00z GFS run. Clipper on Friday looks like a few snow showers at besttruncation is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 GFS looks dry in teh LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 the winter of 2001\02 had a better snowstorm than we have seen the past 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 GFS looks dry in teh LR and very warm. bad combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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