brad1551 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Not interested if the stj is not involved. I have had 4 seperate 1-2 inch events this winter and at this point it sucks I have had a total of 1.3" this year. Combine last year, I have had 1.9" and it's depressing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 the funny part was someone saying the day 7 or 8 sys looks better than either of the last two. i guess we forgot what yesterday looked like as recently as late monday. It sue doesn't. we need to hope it looks better with time. Still there does look to be some potential for a clipper. Maybe we can 0.50" our way to getting even with last year or for the western guys, smashing last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 It sue doesn't. we need to hope it looks better with time. Still there does look to be some potential for a clipper. Maybe we can 0.50" our way to getting even with last year or for the western guys, smashing last year. We are not getting .50 qpf from a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 We are not getting .50 qpf from a clipper He meant a half inch at a time accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 We are not getting .50 qpf from a clipper There isn't .50 of SN in the entire 18z GFS through 384hr that I can see. Your winter's over call is starting to look like a 3 aces showing and 1 in the hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Another terrible Gfs run and its on a roll. I buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I would say persistently warm/cold decembers translate on down the line more often than not. Sometimes door to door. I've long held the opinion that winter goes as Dec goes. You can always point out exceptions (Dec 89 comes to mind), but based on my fallible recollections at least, it seems to have merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 the funny part was someone saying the day 7 or 8 sys looks better than either of the last two. i guess we forgot what yesterday looked like as recently as late monday. I said that but in the context of what is being modeled now at 500 for day 7ish compared to how both of the last 2 systems verified. Just saying that there is potential on the gfs even if the surface looks crappy. And we know how well the surface panels at 7 day leads have been verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I've long held the opinion that winter goes as Dec goes. You can always point out exceptions (Dec 89 comes to mind), but based on my fallible recollections at least, it seems to have merit. I like your opinion and I have to agree. Lets try and stay positive. The ultimate slap in the face will be when more cold air arrives and all we get in return is dry sky's . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I've long held the opinion that winter goes as Dec goes. You can always point out exceptions (Dec 89 comes to mind), but based on my fallible recollections at least, it seems to have merit. Your anecdotal recollections never fail to be bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I said that but in the context of what is being modeled now at 500 for day 7ish compared to how both of the last 2 systems verified. Just saying that there is potential on the gfs even if the surface looks crappy. And we know how well the surface panels at 7 day leads have been verifying. I think we have chances at some nickel dimers over the next week to 10 days and then our 1 st legit chance for a real storm comes within a couple days on either side of the weekend of feb 8-10. Low confidence. But I am sticking with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 It's a bummer how this winter turned out specially after the chance of seeing a weak El Niño developing and then it slowly disappears. Then we are left with another so far disappointing winter. I still feel that we can squeeze out some snow before all said and done on this years winter. If I had to place a bet on the remainder snowfall I would say 5-9" but more so 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 NAM at 84 hrs, but interesting what it does down at the base of the trough http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Your anecdotal recollections never fail to be bad Perhaps, but I know that (late) Nov and Dec 95 were pretty good out here, as was Dec 02, and Dec 09 wasn't too bad either. I can't recall, however, how Dec 86 went down. Dec 08 was snowless just like that entire winter. Dec 10 was a perfect reflection of the bulk of that coming winter: windy, cold, and dry. Dec 11 was warm and snowless, just like the entire winter turned out. I'm sure there are more examples, just as I'm sure there are exceptions also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 GFS has the February 10th HM storm. I95 changes to rain, but book it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Much better Gfs run..colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Gfs is thinking a -nao might be possible down the rd. East based look but still. It's a great run all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 GFS has the February 10th HM storm. I95 changes to rain, but book it anyway. It shouldnt with a 1040+ H in Quebec roaming in... but who cares.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Extremely mild and then a 15-20C 850 temp drop in 12 hours. 60's to 30's pretty quickly down where we live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Saw that. Bit of vort energy on Friday - maybe another snizzle event?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 For those that care, GGEM looks sorta interesting in the 132-144 time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 For those that care, GGEM looks sorta interesting in the 132-144 time period That sure is a lot of qpf, would just need those temps to work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 GFS and Euro both have Friday event....looks minor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Interesting long range look on Euro to my weenie eyes. Little system Friday also shows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I thought it was going to try something! Darn cold looking still in the long range, no big storms. PNA looked good there for a second and I thought some blocking, Would need some mets or more experienced guys than me to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 GFS and Euro both have Friday event....looks minor... .01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 06Z NAM in its long range (so take it with a grain of salt) looks somewhat interesting. Develops a potent low (991mb in N Alabama and Miss) on the trailing cold front and then begins to bring it up. Looking at the 500's they probably imply that it would bring it up just to our west. Might be something to keep an eye to see if the other models might begin to hint at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 06Z NAM in its long range (so take it with a grain of salt) looks somewhat interesting. Develops a potent low (991mb in N Alabama and Miss) on the trailing cold front and then begins to bring it up. Looking at the 500's they probably imply that it would bring it up just to our west. Might be something to keep an eye to see if the other models might begin to hint at this. I can't find any other guidance in line with this. I suppose anything is possible, but call me skeptical of this. It's almost humorous to watch storm after storm form and ride up the front side of these massive troughs we've had. It would be great to get a trough whose axis wasn't off the east coast just one time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I can't find any other guidance in line with this. I suppose anything is possible, but call me skeptical of this. It's almost humorous to watch storm after storm form and ride up the front side of these massive troughs we've had. It would be great to get a trough whose axis wasn't off the east coast just one time. Now why would you be skeptical? After all it is the NAM in it's long range and we know how well it does then. I am at the point where I am hunting for any positive that can be found and that includes the NAM at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 .01 That's all they had for the wed event. Most clippers do disappoint but it does look like it could give us another dusting to an inch it the track is as good as the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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