Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[Ji]

It sue doesn't. we need to hope it looks better with time. Still there does look to be some potential for a clipper. Maybe we can 0.50" our way to getting even with last year or for the western guys, smashing last year.

We are not getting .50 qpf from a clipper

[aldie 22]

We are not getting .50 qpf from a clipper

He meant a half inch at a time accumulation

[BristowWx]

We are not getting .50 qpf from a clipper

There isn't .50 of SN in the entire 18z GFS through 384hr that I can see. Your winter's over call is starting to look like a 3 aces showing and 1 in the hole.

[Ji]

Another terrible Gfs run and its on a roll. I buy it

[EastCoast NPZ]

I would say persistently warm/cold decembers translate on down the line more often than not. Sometimes door to door.

I've long held the opinion that winter goes as Dec goes.  You can always point out exceptions (Dec 89 comes to mind), but based on my fallible recollections at least, it seems to have merit. 

[Bob Chill]

the funny part was someone saying the day 7 or 8 sys looks better than either of the last two. i guess we forgot what yesterday looked like as recently as late monday.

I said that but in the context of what is being modeled now at 500 for day 7ish compared to how both of the last 2 systems verified. Just saying that there is potential on the gfs even if the surface looks crappy. And we know how well the surface panels at 7 day leads have been verifying.

[brad1551]

I've long held the opinion that winter goes as Dec goes. You can always point out exceptions (Dec 89 comes to mind), but based on my fallible recollections at least, it seems to have merit.

I like your opinion and I have to agree. Lets try and stay positive. The ultimate slap in the face will be when more cold air arrives and all we get in return is dry sky's .

[brad1551]

It's a bummer how this winter turned out specially after the chance of seeing a weak El Niño developing and then it slowly disappears. Then we are left with another so far disappointing winter. I still feel that we can squeeze out some snow before all said and done on this years winter. If I had to place a bet on the remainder snowfall I would say 5-9" but more so 6".

[mitchnick]

NAM at 84 hrs, but interesting what it does down at the base of the trough

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif

[EastCoast NPZ]

Your anecdotal recollections never fail to be bad

 

Perhaps, but I know that (late) Nov and Dec 95 were pretty good out here, as was Dec 02, and Dec 09 wasn't too bad either.  I can't recall, however, how Dec 86 went down.  Dec 08 was snowless just like that entire winter.  Dec 10 was a perfect reflection of the bulk of that coming winter: windy, cold, and dry.  Dec 11 was warm and snowless, just like the entire winter turned out.  I'm sure there are more examples, just as I'm sure there are exceptions also.

[Amped]

GFS has the February 10th HM storm. I95 changes to rain, but book it anyway.

[Ji]

Much better Gfs run..colder

[Bob Chill]

Gfs is thinking a -nao might be possible down the rd. East based look but still. It's a great run all things considered.

[yoda]

GFS has the February 10th HM storm. I95 changes to rain, but book it anyway.

It shouldnt with a 1040+ H in Quebec roaming in... but who cares..

[WEATHER53]

Extremely mild and then a 15-20C 850 temp drop in 12 hours.  60's to 30's pretty quickly down where we live.

[midatlanticweather]

Saw that.  Bit of vort energy on Friday - maybe another snizzle event?!

[yoda]

For those that care, GGEM looks sorta interesting in the 132-144 time period

[swimmatte]

For those that care, GGEM looks sorta interesting in the 132-144 time period

 

That sure is a lot of qpf, would just need those temps to work themselves out.

[midatlanticweather]

Interesting long range look on Euro to my weenie eyes. Little system Friday also shows!

[midatlanticweather]

I thought it was going to try something! Darn cold looking still in the long range, no big storms. PNA looked good there for a second and I thought some blocking, Would need some mets or more experienced guys than me to figure it out.

[Ji]

GFS and Euro both have Friday event....looks minor...

.01

[showmethesnow]

06Z NAM in its long range (so take it with a grain of salt) looks somewhat interesting. Develops a potent low (991mb in N Alabama and Miss) on the trailing cold front and then begins to bring it up. Looking at the 500's they probably imply that it would bring it up just to our west. Might be something to keep an eye to see if the other models might begin to hint at this.

[WinterWxLuvr]

06Z NAM in its long range (so take it with a grain of salt) looks somewhat interesting. Develops a potent low (991mb in N Alabama and Miss) on the trailing cold front and then begins to bring it up. Looking at the 500's they probably imply that it would bring it up just to our west. Might be something to keep an eye to see if the other models might begin to hint at this.

I can't find any other guidance in line with this. I suppose anything is possible, but call me skeptical of this.

It's almost humorous to watch storm after storm form and ride up the front side of these massive troughs we've had. It would be great to get a trough whose axis wasn't off the east coast just one time.

[showmethesnow]

I can't find any other guidance in line with this. I suppose anything is possible, but call me skeptical of this.

It's almost humorous to watch storm after storm form and ride up the front side of these massive troughs we've had. It would be great to get a trough whose axis wasn't off the east coast just one time.

Now why would you be skeptical? After all it is the NAM in it's long range and we know how well it does then.

 

I am at the point where I am hunting for any positive that can be found and that includes the NAM at 84.

[usedtobe]

.01

 

That's all they had for the wed event.  Most clippers do disappoint but it does look like it could give us another dusting to an inch it the track is as good as the euro. 

[midatlanticweather]

I need a Bob Chill, Usetobe.. SOMEONE pep talk about some cold and potential snow. Larry Cosgrove threw a bone in his long range, but I kind of feel like he always does!

 

Is there any hope?

[FrederickWX]

I need a Bob Chill, Usetobe.. SOMEONE pep talk about some cold and potential snow. Larry Cosgrove threw a bone in his long range, but I kind of feel like he always does!

 

Is there any hope?

 

"In reality, hope is the worst of all evils, because it prolongs the torments of man."  -- Friedrich Nietzsche

[Bob Chill]

I need a Bob Chill, Usetobe.. SOMEONE pep talk about some cold and potential snow. Larry Cosgrove threw a bone in his long range, but I kind of feel like he always does!

Is there any hope?

Nothing is clear or will be until after the rainer is resolved. Clipper Friday-ish consistently on the panels. Would like the vort to have a better pass south bit that is prob asking too much.

The big spike with the ao that ens guidance was picking up on is already getting muted and a drop back to neg territory is quite likely. This has been a recurring theme.

Gfs keeps hinting at a -nao and gefs is starting to agree. Looks mostly east based and not stable but it's out in time so much can change.

Pac ridge has legs and that is never a bad thing. Active precip pattern looks to start next week. No way of really knowing what side we end up on yet.

No sign of a torch at all. Seasonable to below looks to hang on for a while.

Overall pattern seems to have ok potential but nothing classic on the horizon.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

06Z NAM in its long range (so take it with a grain of salt) looks somewhat interesting. Develops a potent low (991mb in N Alabama and Miss) on the trailing cold front and then begins to bring it up. Looking at the 500's they probably imply that it would bring it up just to our west. Might be something to keep an eye to see if the other models might begin to hint at this.

 

 

I can't find any other guidance in line with this. I suppose anything is possible, but call me skeptical of this.

It's almost humorous to watch storm after storm form and ride up the front side of these massive troughs we've had. It would be great to get a trough whose axis wasn't off the east coast just one time.

 

All joking aside about extrapolating the 84-h NAM, but I do recall seeing a similar vort on the GFS now and then late last week, though not as strong as what the NAM has.  There was also a secondary (or whatever) surface low that rode up the front either just to our west or right over us.  It wasn't snow by any means, but looked quite interesting from a convective potential standpoint.  There was a good line of heavy precip, and on the GFS cycles that depicted the secondary low, the QPF field had a "scalloped" look (or "convective", if you will).

[usedtobe]

I need a Bob Chill, Usetobe.. SOMEONE pep talk about some cold and potential snow. Larry Cosgrove threw a bone in his long range, but I kind of feel like he always does!

Is there any hope?

 

Nothing is clear or will be until after the rainer is resolved. Clipper Friday-ish consistently on the panels. Would like the vort to have a better pass south bit that is prob asking too much.

The big spike with the ao that ens guidance was picking up on is already getting muted and a drop back to neg territory is quite likely. This has been a recurring theme.

Gfs keeps hinting at a -nao and gefs is starting to agree. Looks mostly east based and not stable but it's out in time so much can change.

Pac ridge has legs and that is never a bad thing. Active precip pattern looks to start next week. No way of really knowing what side we end up on yet.

No sign of a torch at all. Seasonable to below looks to hang on for a while.

Overall pattern seems to have ok potential but nothing classic on the horizon.

 

Bob. you have now reached super-weenie status where other weenies look to you for positive inspiration.  Congrats.   My own view is that after our next cold spell temps go more towards seasonal with the usual ups and downs as the lows continue to track to our north and warm us but then the mostly positive pna helps cool us back down behind the fronts but that's a wag.  I still see our best chances for snow as being clippers during the 6-10 day period or with a miller b that gives us front end love.  I'm not ready to completely write off Feb or early March as by then you usually start seeing some cut off form which by default gives a little southern stream type possibilities.  However,  I would take the under on 8" for the season if I were a betting may and am not sure I would bet Ian about his 5 inch call.