Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[SeminoleSullivan]

These multi-day tracking threads end up being tedious and actually kind of exhausting. I think people would feel better if they just assumed very little snow will fall this winter and only check models out to 48 hours.

 

That's akin to skipping right to being married, with a kid on the way.  The courtship and the hunt are exhausting...but when it pays off, we not only learn something, but also feel a sense of completion and gratitude that can come to exist in no other way.

 

That being said, 8ish days out on the GFS is beginning to at least show *SOMETHING*. For a while, the GFS showed nothing even remotely promising for 300+ hours.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I still feel most areas will see double what they've seen so far. More than double for the cities. It's been cold enough most of the time. We just need a stormier pattern. MJO headed toward a prolonged period possibly in phase 8 which is supposed to be good. Hard for me to cancel winter on Jan 26 after a decent week of winter weather, snow on the ground, snow falling all day. It needs to happen in the next month though, because on Feb 26 the outlook is much different.

[Fozz]

I know it doesn't take much and marginal cold air can work but I'd be really really really tempted to bet DCA finishes below 5", and probably even less than that. I don't believe we're about to make much up in the coming weeks. Winter's as good as dead to me.

Thanks Jian

[Ian]

Thanks Jian

I know we are only fans of empty optimism. I am sorry.

[Ji]

My winter over thread seems to be for real

[PhineasC]

I still feel most areas will see double what they've seen so far. More than double for the cities. It's been cold enough most of the time. We just need a stormier pattern. MJO headed toward a prolonged period possibly in phase 8 which is supposed to be good. Hard for me to cancel winter on Jan 26 after a decent week of winter weather, snow on the ground, snow falling all day. It needs to happen in the next month though, because on Feb 26 the outlook is much different.

Wow, so we'll see two inches?!

[WinterWxLuvr]

Wow, so we'll see two inches?!

That's a good point. It's not hard to double what you guys have had. But Jan 26 is pretty early to throw in the towel.

[Ji]

12z Gfs looks horrible. Again

[packbacker]

I know it doesn't take much and marginal cold air can work but I'd be really really really tempted to bet DCA finishes below 5", and probably even less than that. I don't believe we're about to make much up in the coming weeks. Winter's as good as dead to me.

Has DCA ever had back to back below 5" winters? I quickly looked and I didn't see any.

[Fozz]

These multi-day tracking threads end up being tedious and actually kind of exhausting. I think people would feel better if they just assumed very little snow will fall this winter and only check models out to 48 hours.

I'll be honest here..... I just can't deal with that after the piece of hog poop of a winter we had last year, which couldn't even give us a single moderate event. I was well behaved last year but now this pathetic snowlessness is really getting to me, and no, I will not resign myself to regarding a cartopper as a good snowstorm. This isn't Alabama. I want a 6"+ event, and after several years of not having one I think we're due, especially the colder burbs. It doesn't take a 09-10 type setup in a pretty strong Niño with amazing blocking to get a 4-8" snowstorm. We have all of February left, so something needs to give.

/end rant

[stormtracker]

I know we are only fans of empty optimism. I am sorry.

That's right, come to the dark side. I said wait till February for the longest. Now I am ready to write the first half off.

[Ji]

That's right, come to the dark side. I said wait till February for the longest. Now I am ready to write the first half off.

Lol that 2nd half according to pros is supposed to be crap. Lets face it...it's not snowing this winter. Even Wes is being too optimistic

[Fozz]

Has DCA ever had back to back below 5" winters? I quickly looked and I didn't see any.

I know the three winters before 09-10 were the first time they had three consecutive winters <10"

[clueless]

Well I have snow on the ground and it has been very wintry all week. Take what you can get and don't sweat every run of the GFS.

Well I got snow now. Maybe in three days I will complain again.

[Wonderdog]

Beginning of Feb has the mjo; AO will be tanking, maybe; NAO may be going down. Probably have a week or two to get lucky imo.

[psuhoffman]

We should wait and see what happens if this mjo wave gets into phase 1-2. If the mjo dies then its over but if we can get into phase 1 &2 in feb the guidance could quickly improve when they pick up on the effects. I'm giving it one more week before I call TOD.

[Ian]

Has DCA ever had back to back below 5" winters? I quickly looked and I didn't see any.

No but it has back to back 5" or less in early 30s.

[Ji]

For DC to get 5 this year...it will take a moderate snowstorm

[Bob Chill]

I thought the gfs looked pretty good. I can cut it some slack trying to figure out how to handle shortwaves that are over china and Russia right now. Longwave looks better than anything we've seen.

[Ji]

And frankly if the euro shows a snowstorm we need to disregard like if the nogaps is showing it. If Gfs shows one then ill raise an eyebrow

[Kmlwx]

I thought the gfs looked pretty good. I can cut it some slack trying to figure out how to handle shortwaves that are over china and Russia right now. Longwave looks better than anything we've seen.

 

can you imagine how much better the models would be if they simply had better data. Too bad we can't have a worldwide (better) network of balloons and other sampling methods. 

[dtk]

can you imagine how much better the models would be if they simply had better data. Too bad we can't have a worldwide (better) network of balloons and other sampling methods. 

We have a much better observing network than people realize.  There is a reason that our SH skill is now comparable to our NH skill.

[brad1551]

From what I read in the main forum a few weeks back it seems if anything we may get another Nina...that would be against historic evidence since we have never before gone Nina/Nina/Neutral/Nina, usually the 4th one in that sequence is an El Nino but I guess there is a first time for everything.

I studied that sequence about a week ago or so and there has never been a La Niña to follow after that setup. Either another Neutral or El Niño.

You are right about always being a 1st and lately with the consistent let downs it would not surprise me at all. By July/Aug we will no what direction we will probably be heading into next winter. We still have February to go and my money is on a below average temp for the month and that raises the stakes for snow. Time will only tell!!

[Bob Chill]

We have a much better observing network than people realize. There is a reason that our SH skill is now comparable to our NH skill.

Was it you who responded in the thread irt having every square foot of the earth perfectly calculated is still prone to large errors as you go out in time?

I get it tho. The atmosphere is far more complicated than just getting the motion in a large 3 dimensional space calculated properly. All of the processes add an incredible amount of complicated physics into the mix. In my mind it seems almost 5+ dimensional. Lol

Even nailing near perfect conditions around the globe still has tons of tiny mathematical errors the grow exponentially out in time. It irks the crap out of me when people who know zero about physics bash models incessantly. I know enough to be quite dangerous with the physical processes going on but I'm still logical enough to understand that models are mindblowingly good at what they can already do.

[Kmlwx]

We have a much better observing network than people realize.  There is a reason that our SH skill is now comparable to our NH skill.

 

Wow! Did not know. That is impressive!

[87storms]

These multi-day tracking threads end up being tedious and actually kind of exhausting. I think people would feel better if they just assumed very little snow will fall this winter and only check models out to 48 hours.

 

it's more exhausting if you don't take the time to learn from it.  i try to take something out of tracking these storms now instead of just looking at precip output several days out.  with all the time spent tracking storms, i do find it more of a waste if you're only going to be satisfied if it snows.  gotta enjoy the tracking part a little bit.  plus, the more you learn, the more you can sniff out a bust.

[87storms]

can you imagine how much better the models would be if they simply had better data. Too bad we can't have a worldwide (better) network of balloons and other sampling methods. 

 

it will help having more data, but there's probably equations lacking from the models that would help out even more.  i think chaos theory attempts to solve some of those riddles.

[Deck Pic]

I know it doesn't take much and marginal cold air can work but I'd be really really really tempted to bet DCA finishes below 5", and probably even less than that. I don't believe we're about to make much up in the coming weeks. Winter's as good as dead to me.

 

I'd probably take the over...January 26th is a bit early especially with what looks like a cold February..I like 6-8" on the seasonn, maybe even 8-10"

[yoda]

I'd probably take the over...January 26th is a bit early especially with what looks like a cold February..I like 6-8" on the seasonn, maybe even 8-10"

EURO show anything Friday and after?  Or just cold and dry?

[Bob Chill]

it's more exhausting if you don't take the time to learn from it. i try to take something out of tracking these storms now instead of just looking at precip output several days out. with all the time spent tracking storms, i do find it more of a waste if you're only going to be satisfied if it snows. gotta enjoy the tracking part a little bit. plus, the more you learn, the more you can sniff out a bust.

Absolutely. Using models verbatim is weak analysis. Anybody can do it. Using logic, intuition, and local knowledge is the fun factor for me. Lots of small things make big differences. Identifying them and paying close attention goes a long way in uncovering potential when surface panels show jack.

That's why I'm intrigued by the post tropical rain storm. There is potential inside of 8 days. Much to be resolved first. Most importantly, the evolution of next weeks storm. My hunch is it wraps up nice and helps set up a nice flow at h5 on its wake. A good bit of energy probably gets absorbed into the pv and comes out in some pieces of energy that will drop down somewhere in the mw. Just hope and pray one goes right through central va.