Ian Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Glaze ice Monday, severe thursday, and a clipper late Friday. Good week on tap! Yoda- look at 500 next Friday. Better setup than today. We're going to nickel ourselves to a sub par winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 00z NAM looks like it would be a few hundreths at best... 00z GFS same The pt was its silly to root for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 We're going to nickel ourselves to a sub par winter. I'm just havin some fun trackin and learnin. I said it a month ago. It's a take what you can get winter. Already much more fun than last year's nightmare. At least for me anyways. Ponds and creeks are frozen...that is some serious shi!t! I'm hedging on a surprise or 2 in the next 3 weeks. Things look kinda ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Yes re: h5... but as Wes would say, we would like the vort to pass south of us in C VA instead of on top of us Yes its 7 days out... but nothing really shows up on the SLP maps or QPF maps besides a few hundredths of an inch. Wednesday night could have some storms Flow remains fast. It's 4-5 day leads tops before precip on specific days starts getting consensus. Except for heavy rain of course. Lol. I like everything I see post bathwater rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Euro sure made Thursday look a little better..... dropped .84 on DCA with 1.8 surface and -3.2 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Euro sure made Thursday look a little better..... dropped .84 on DCA with 1.8 surface and -3.2 850's It's the cold front storm-- that's the end of the time frame. Look at the frame before to see what you REALLY get. (It rhymes with plain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Feb could be a bust. Models backing off cold air bug time. We better see a storm before feb 10 or we could have another snowless winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Feb could be a bust. Models backing off cold air bug time. We better see a storm before feb 10 or we could have another snowless winter oh, quit bugging us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Still out there but I'm not enjoying seeing a series of lp's track across us / Canada border. I take it with a grain because flow behind the big rainer next week should stay amped enough to not let that happen. But, if you are looking for a way to not be cold and not get snow, that would do it. Just pointing it out and I don't buy it at all for now. Pac ridge should cooperate well enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Clippers ae probably are best bet from Friday through the weekend as both the GFS and Euro seemed to be hinting at one, the euro maybe two. Still clippers more often than not are frustrating, the scale is so small models rarely get the strip of inch plus precip right even a day in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Clippers ae probably are best bet from Friday through the weekend as both the GFS and Euro seemed to be hinting at one, the euro maybe two. Still clippers more often than not are frustrating, the scale is so small models rarely get the strip of inch plus precip right even a day in advance.Nice to see snow but screw tracking clippers. Way more time than it's worth. I'm about a 10 days from losing it with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Nice to see snow but screw tracking clippers. Way more time than it's worth. I'm about a 10 days from losing it with this winter. I'm 3 weeks from not really caring anymore as I'll be getting busy doing other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Feb could be a bust. Models backing off cold air bug time. We better see a storm before feb 10 or we could have another snowless winter After the 10th it's only showing normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Still out there but I'm not enjoying seeing a series of lp's track across us / Canada border. I take it with a grain because flow behind the big rainer next week should stay amped enough to not let that happen. But, if you are looking for a way to not be cold and not get snow, that would do it. Just pointing it out and I don't buy it at all for now. Pac ridge should cooperate well enough. Even the ens mean suggest that is the pattern except from those times when a clipper scoots to our south. The subtropical jet has been pretty non existent for most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Even the ens mean suggest that is the pattern except from those times when a clipper scoots to our south. The subtropical jet has been pretty non existent for most of the winter. And if we do not develop an El Nino this summer its only gonna get worse next winter, although honestly maybe getting a Nina could juice things up a bit next year, I know its not the best for anyone from DC-NYC to have a Nina but sometimes its better than a neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 And if we do not develop an El Nino this summer its only gonna get worse next winter, although honestly maybe getting a Nina could juice things up a bit next year, I know its not the best for anyone from DC-NYC to have a Nina but sometimes its better than a neutral. I'd love to see an el nino. for dc we need the subtropical jet. we don't get many big winters or storms during la nina years. Half our el ninos give us really good winters, that's quite a bit higher than La nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'd love to see an el nino. for dc we need the subtropical jet. we don't get many big winters or storms during la nina years. Half our el ninos give us really good winters, that's quite a bit higher than La nina winters. From what I read in the main forum a few weeks back it seems if anything we may get another Nina...that would be against historic evidence since we have never before gone Nina/Nina/Neutral/Nina, usually the 4th one in that sequence is an El Nino but I guess there is a first time for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'd love to see an el nino. for dc we need the subtropical jet. we don't get many big winters or storms during la nina years. Half our el ninos give us really good winters, that's quite a bit higher than La nina winters. Probably a dumb question, especially since winter is still not over, but what is this year going to go in the books as? Never mind. SnowGoose answered my question. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 For all intents and purposes in the ma, a neutral after nina carries many similar traits to ninas. Zwyts and Wes has explained this many times in the past. This winter is pretty much doing exactly what it should be doing and it should have been more obvious to me once we lost hope of a Nino but I kept trying to hide from that reality. NE is probably a sore spot this year because of pretty much a total lack of miller b's. Still time though. NS dominant winters are sketchy at best here. We have to hope for enough amplification or a block to get something to ride underneath us. I have little confidence in a classic closed low out of the sw with stj influence as it heads across the gulf states. However, having a well timed 50-50 or if the nao EVER cooperates then we could have a nice ns vort turn the corner far enough south to open the gulf and give us a thump. That's kinda what I'm banking on in Feb if we stand any chance at a moderate event or 2. For the time being I'm going to hedge on 1 or 2 juicier ns systems but that doesn't mean I'm confident at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 From what I read in the main forum a few weeks back it seems if anything we may get another Nina...that would be against historic evidence since we have never before gone Nina/Nina/Neutral/Nina, usually the 4th one in that sequence is an El Nino but I guess there is a first time for everything. With the stretch we've had, another precedent-setting Nina wouldn't surprise me. Another scorching summer and crap winter to follow? Sure...why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 For all intents and purposes in the ma, a neutral after nina carries many similar traits to ninas. Zwyts and Wes has explained this many times in the past. This winter is pretty much doing exactly what it should be doing and it should have been more obvious to me once we lost hope of a Nino but I kept trying to hide from that reality. NE is probably a sore spot this year because of pretty much a total lack of miller b's. Still time though. NS dominant winters are sketchy at best here. We have to hope for enough amplification or a block to get something to ride underneath us. I have little confidence in a classic closed low out of the sw with stj influence as it heads across the gulf states. However, having a well timed 50-50 or if the nao EVER cooperates then we could have a nice ns vort turn the corner far enough south to open the gulf and give us a thump. That's kinda what I'm banking on in Feb if we stand any chance at a moderate event or 2. For the time being I'm going to hedge on 1 or 2 juicier ns systems but that doesn't mean I'm confident at all. i feel like we're due for a strong clipper, something that digs far enough to tap into some decent gulf moisture. this last system was too disconnected from the southern stream. we need something a little more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 i feel like we're due for a strong clipper, something that digs far enough to tap into some decent gulf moisture. this last system was too disconnected from the southern stream. we need something a little more consolidated. GFS is hinting at that possibility about a week from today. Of course that's an eternity, but who knows, that feature at 500 looks like it might dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 A 3-5" clipper would do wonders for my morale. Back to the ENSO discussion, what makes people think a Niña next winter is more likely than anything else? How do we even know...... it seems so early to make any calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 A 3-5" clipper would do wonders for my morale. Back to the ENSO discussion, what makes people think a Niña next winter is more likely than anything else? How do we even know...... it seems so early to make any calls. Can't imagine such a call would be anything but a guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I know it doesn't take much and marginal cold air can work but I'd be really really really tempted to bet DCA finishes below 5", and probably even less than that. I don't believe we're about to make much up in the coming weeks. Winter's as good as dead to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Holding out hope that Feb comes through. Great to reminisce about some of our great storms of the past: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/DC-Winters.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I know it doesn't take much and marginal cold air can work but I'd be really really really tempted to bet DCA finishes below 5", and probably even less than that. I don't believe we're about to make much up in the coming weeks. Winter's as good as dead to me. It likes to snow in February around here. Well, most Februarys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The avg above is old.. 5.7" now in Feb. I'm well aware of climo but you don't necessarily blindly believe in it even if it's a great overall guide. The models suck outside d7 or so.. so any real sign or lack thereof after that point is kinda useless stormwise at least. But, there is no real signal of anything great around the corner. At this point persistence seems to be a good guide. It only takes one, but in a winter with none you generally don't get that one. Places N & W may have more hope than the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I know it doesn't take much and marginal cold air can work but I'd be really really really tempted to bet DCA finishes below 5", and probably even less than that. I don't believe we're about to make much up in the coming weeks. Winter's as good as dead to me. These multi-day tracking threads end up being tedious and actually kind of exhausting. I think people would feel better if they just assumed very little snow will fall this winter and only check models out to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 These multi-day tracking threads end up being tedious and actually kind of exhausting. I think people would feel better if they just assumed very little snow will fall this winter and only check models out to 48 hours. I tend to agree. It wouldnt be happening if we weren't so darn snow starved. Prob for me is I can't analyze severe to save my life and nothing else grabs my interest so I get stuck on every little thing in the winter. It's only 12-15 weeks of my time anyways. Lol Gfs has 3 threats on the horizon and the first 2 look better than the last 2. Hrs 144-150 look good and another shot less than 2 days later.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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