Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[Kmlwx]

We have a much better observing network than people realize.  There is a reason that our SH skill is now comparable to our NH skill.

 

Wow! Did not know. That is impressive!

[87storms]

These multi-day tracking threads end up being tedious and actually kind of exhausting. I think people would feel better if they just assumed very little snow will fall this winter and only check models out to 48 hours.

 

it's more exhausting if you don't take the time to learn from it.  i try to take something out of tracking these storms now instead of just looking at precip output several days out.  with all the time spent tracking storms, i do find it more of a waste if you're only going to be satisfied if it snows.  gotta enjoy the tracking part a little bit.  plus, the more you learn, the more you can sniff out a bust.

[87storms]

can you imagine how much better the models would be if they simply had better data. Too bad we can't have a worldwide (better) network of balloons and other sampling methods. 

 

it will help having more data, but there's probably equations lacking from the models that would help out even more.  i think chaos theory attempts to solve some of those riddles.

[yoda]

I'd probably take the over...January 26th is a bit early especially with what looks like a cold February..I like 6-8" on the seasonn, maybe even 8-10"

EURO show anything Friday and after?  Or just cold and dry?

[Bob Chill]

it's more exhausting if you don't take the time to learn from it. i try to take something out of tracking these storms now instead of just looking at precip output several days out. with all the time spent tracking storms, i do find it more of a waste if you're only going to be satisfied if it snows. gotta enjoy the tracking part a little bit. plus, the more you learn, the more you can sniff out a bust.

Absolutely. Using models verbatim is weak analysis. Anybody can do it. Using logic, intuition, and local knowledge is the fun factor for me. Lots of small things make big differences. Identifying them and paying close attention goes a long way in uncovering potential when surface panels show jack.

That's why I'm intrigued by the post tropical rain storm. There is potential inside of 8 days. Much to be resolved first. Most importantly, the evolution of next weeks storm. My hunch is it wraps up nice and helps set up a nice flow at h5 on its wake. A good bit of energy probably gets absorbed into the pv and comes out in some pieces of energy that will drop down somewhere in the mw. Just hope and pray one goes right through central va.

[stormtracker]

I'd probably take the over...January 26th is a bit early especially with what looks like a cold February..I like 6-8" on the seasonn, maybe even 8-10"

6-8 is reasonable and most likely. I've already punted this winter on an emotional level. I've felt detached since the beginning. I'm usually here every day, posting like mad during winter. Now, I don't even post some days. It's not that I've lost my love for snow, it's that I've lost the tolerance and patience for disappointment. I'm glad some of the newbs and semi newbs have taken up the mantle of wide eyed optimism tho.

[Bob Chill]

it shows the idea of possible systems like the ones we just had...so not much snow unless we get a band/dynamics to set up over us....

What about something similar to the last storm with a decent vort pass and more amp in front? Even though yesterday was fun to watch, the crappy flat flow and missing waa connection kept a mod event off the table. But it was still close to the right setup. I just can't believe how hard its been for a simple 3-5er to get right. It's borderline comical and its not just because of enso either.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Someone with Euro access, does it show any precip by Mon 12z? It's 850's are really close to zero at that time and all other models have us below freezing at the surface. Reminds me of 12/8/09. Was supposed to be rain. Ended up with 2" of wet snow first, then rain. At the least I'd think freezing rain. If precip, that is.

[usedtobe]

If we don't get a STJ, 3-5" on the season seems about right...we probably nickel and dime our way with 2-3 more 0.5-1" events...or maybe we get lucky with a storm from the west or NW that bands us to 2-3" for the storm...wavelengths shorten later in the winter and it is easier to get something to dig and phase or a faux southern stream to develop...it is the reason FEB is often our best month even with quickly rising temps and sun angle....I still like a 4-8" storm....which would be probably closer to 4" at DCA....starting a few weeks ago, I never really liked our chances for anything significant before about 2/5-2/10....if we get to 2/15-2/20 without much, then clearly we would need a 3/9/99 or 3/1/09 type event to get us to a respectable total

 

I think that is the big hope,  Even early March. later in the season you tend to get more cut off lows that you can get lucky with.  I thik 6-8 is reasonable if Feb indeed ends up cold. 

[brad1551]

February 1967 from what I have heard from a couple people has been coming in as the top analog for next month. I believe February 67, DC picked up 19" for that month.

[87storms]

6-8 is reasonable and most likely. I've already punted this winter on an emotional level. I've felt detached since the beginning. I'm usually here every day, posting like mad during winter. Now, I don't even post some days. It's not that I've lost my love for snow, it's that I've lost the tolerance and patience for disappointment. I'm glad some of the newbs and semi newbs have taken up the mantle of wide eyed optimism tho.

 

you're being rational is what you're being.  the toughest part of this hobby is that you want something that you simply have absolutely no control in getting.  it's not like playing basketball.  if i want to play basketball, i'll find a way.  if i want it to snow, i need to rely on forces out of my reach.  it's basically the different between going to a game hoping your team wins and actually playing the game.  all we are is just a bunch of fans, although at least as a fan you can help your team win.  rooting for a storm does nothing.  the only control we have is learning.  that's the only way to dampen a letdown.  

[HighStakes]

Someone with Euro access, does it show any precip by Mon 12z? It's 850's are really close to zero at that time and all other models have us below freezing at the surface. Reminds me of 12/8/09. Was supposed to be rain. Ended up with 2" of wet snow first, then rain. At the least I'd think freezing rain. If precip, that is.

Shows very little precip by 12z confined mainly northwest. Zero line by then is in central md pushing north rapidly. 12/8/09 was initially wetter and had a better set up for an unexpected thump. Someone could easily see some light zr for a period with this but that's about it as of now.

[Ian]

I'd probably take the over...January 26th is a bit early especially with what looks like a cold February..I like 6-8" on the seasonn, maybe even 8-10"

We'll see. I always figured your call was about as optimistic as possible. I know the climo and such. Just don't feel it.

[Ian]

the outlook call or the mid range call...I though the outlook call was reasonably conservative....the mid range call is optimistic....we definitely will need a decent QPF storm from the south or a fluke from the west like some super clipper

The outlook. Definitely reasonable and way better than many thus far. But I was pessimistic even at that pt so it was kind of my ceiling. Tho I profess no personal lr skill.

[HighStakes]

that is a pretty bad analog imo

What about 71/72. Don't know if anyone brought it up but it may be close match to what we've seen so far, although I haven't looked that close at it. Feb. did have a nice storm that hit the suburburbs pretty good and I believe the cities did ok as well. Not sure what the temps were for Feb. but it looks like it was at least a couple degrees below normal.

[Ian]

I thought it was pretty bearish though I will bust low on temps unless we have a ludicrous February....75% of norm snow and slightly above norm temps....We have more on the line at CWG....we cant put out a KA type outlook...it would be irresponsible from that range...but I certianly could have gone +2 to +3 and 5-8" of snow if I was expecting a horrid winter...persistence is definitely a b**ch....I thought -NAO/-AO would help us more and maybe it will over the next 6 weeks....these +6 months hurt outlooks and you cant really go +6 for a month even with a torch signal....a lot hinges on a decent Feb...if Feb is warm and bleh and we end up +3-+4 on the winter and 5" of snow it will be a very mediocre outlook

Yeah, I hear ya. Not trying to imply I'd do anything different etc. My thoughts are all more gut feelings mixed with general pattern progression ideas. Definitely less scientifically based. I though KA's outlook was silly when I first heard it but maybe not. Overall you're looking pretty good--maybe better if this cold had held off another week or so. I wonder how long we'll go till we get a sustained warm up. I know various indices are 'positive' for winter but usually we don't stay cold in the means for all that long these days. One of my biggest issues with Feb potential is we can get the right pattern and still not get a lot of snow.

[usedtobe]

that is a pretty bad analog imo

 

Plus you shouldn't use those analogs more than a few days outside of the centered mean. I usually use 3 on either side but with a great pattern, I sometimes broaden the search by a few days.  I'm not sure you want to make a monthly call on such a product as it's only giving you a model snapshot of the pattern and then identifying similar snapshots. 

[mitchnick]

12z Gfs looks horrible. Again

any storms in the medium-long range have not worked out

I think if we do get something, it will show up in the 3-5 day period from a storm unanimously thought to miss us

and I agree with Matt that 2/67 will never work....if for no other reason,12/66 had 20" at BWI and the month of 2/67 was just winter remembering the month of Dec. that winter as 2/10 remembered 12/09

[WinterWxLuvr]

any storms in the medium-long range have not worked out

I think if we do get something, it will show up in the 3-5 day period from a storm unanimously thought to miss us

and I agree with Matt that 2/67 will never work....if for no other reason,12/66 had 20" at BWI and the month of 2/67 was just winter remembering the month of Dec. that winter as 2/10 remembered 12/09

I'm not sure I believe the theory of weather having a memory.

[mitchnick]

I'm not sure I believe the theory of weather having a memory.

you don't think a pattern sets up in DEC for the majority of winters?

I do

it's not guaranteed every single year but the majority of winters it is

[WinterWxLuvr]

you don't think a pattern sets up in DEC for the majority of winters?

I do

it's not guaranteed every single year but the majority of winters it is

You aren't talking about a pattern, youre talking about storms, snow in particular. I'm sure there are plenty of examples of the same basic pattern producing vastly different amounts of snow.

[HighStakes]

you don't think a pattern sets up in DEC for the majority of winters?

I do

it's not guaranteed every single year but the majority of winters it is

It's hard to say exactly. I tend to side with you on this somewhat but there are also many examples that don't support it as well.

[Bob Chill]

I would say persistently warm/cold decembers translate on down the line more often than not. Sometimes door to door.

[mitchnick]

You aren't talking about a pattern, youre talking about storms, snow in particular. I'm sure there are plenty of examples of the same basic pattern producing vastly different amounts of snow.

the 2 are so interwoven

like I said, it's not every year, but it is for most   02/03 and 09/10 to name a few where DEC set the tone

you don't have to believe it, but I do

[CAPE]

12z Gfs looks horrible. Again

Horrible? I see 3 different chances for snow between Thursday and Monday alone. Sometimes you have to look beyond what a model run shows verbatim. There are definite hints, and maybe none of them work out to produce a major event but I bet there will be some snow falling during that period. The Sunday into Monday time frame probably holds the most potential of seeing something decent.

[Ji]

Horrible? I see 3 different chances for snow between Thursday and Monday alone. Sometimes you have to look beyond what a model run shows verbatim. There are definite hints, and maybe none of them work out to produce a major event but I bet there will be some snow falling during that period. The Sunday into Monday time frame probably holds the most potential of seeing something decent.

Not interested if the stj is not involved. I have had 4 seperate 1-2 inch events this winter and at this point it sucks

[Ian]

the funny part was someone saying the day 7 or 8 sys looks better than either of the last two. i guess we forgot what yesterday looked like as recently as late monday.

[brad1551]

that is a pretty bad analog imo

You might have seen Don's post in the medium range 2012-2013. He was one of them that spoke about Feb 67 and also a couple of other people I know. I can't argue with Don period, unless I beg to differ on something big. There was KU event as well. I am not saying that 19" or 12" will fall next month. What I can say is the ongoing SSW event and Siberia's above normal snow cover in the the middle of Oct till the end of it. This tells me cold is coming and to put the icing on the cake the MJO down the road moving is going to phases 8-1. Now it's all about how cold in my book? When the cold comes which I am very confident about. Our snow chances go up!!!

Trying to stay positive with all the constant let downs.

[brad1551]

Not interested if the stj is not involved. I have had 4 seperate 1-2 inch events this winter and at this point it sucks

I have had a total of 1.3" this year. Combine last year, I have had 1.9" and it's depressing!!

[usedtobe]

the funny part was someone saying the day 7 or 8 sys looks better than either of the last two. i guess we forgot what yesterday looked like as recently as late monday.

 

It sue doesn't. we need to hope it looks better with time.  Still there does look to be some potential for a clipper.  Maybe we can 0.50" our way to getting even with last year or for the western guys,  smashing last year.