mitchnick Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 well, I've found our problem but fear it's too late to change barring a last minute save by the MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 LR looks good on 00z GFS. Lots of cold air and southern jet gets very active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Euro has the Jan 32nd storm big time.....where did the thread go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Euro has the Jan 32nd storm big time.....where did the thread go? The mods deleted it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The EC and CMC show a lot of positive signs but lately the GFS has been nailing the pattern and the others following and it continues to show the STJ too weak to push anything into the cold air and the northern jet keeping low's to our north. The 2 systems the GFS has after the cold returns both show the classic DC split and look identical to this one today. Hopefully it is wrong but I am not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Should I start a thread for the ice threat on Mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Should I start a thread for the ice threat on Mon? I think mitchnik referred to it as the "wtf" event. Start a thread - who likes ice anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Should I start a thread for the ice threat on Mon? GFS/EURO keep precip north of the M/D line. And its warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS/EURO keep precip north of the M/D line. And its warm. Big 1030 hp to the n so cad should be strong. Precip looks really light. I was kiddin about the thread (im sure most knew that) but it's definitely worth watching. If it keeps trending wetter it could be more than a nuisance. 12z gfs says glaze before we jump above freezing later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Big 1030 hp to the n so cad should be strong. Precip looks really light. I was kiddin about the thread (im sure most knew that) but it's definitely worth watching. If it keeps trending wetter it could be more than a nuisance. 12z gfs says glaze before we jump above freezing later in the day. gfsice.JPG Cool. My SV maps(12z GFS) don't show any precip except in WV. It does indicate a decent cad wedge that gets pushed out around hr. 75. Worth watching with precip around and onset temps potentially below 32. In this winter something is better than nothing. EDIT: Looks like there is inter-hour precip accumulation DC Metro between hrs 66-69-72. Light but present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I posted this in the Feb 0 thread but it belongs here... I have been waiting for a sign that either the wavelenghts would shorten and allow the northern branch to dig more, OR the STJ to get some life. Still not much sign of a useful NAO block to dig the northern branch, BUT there are some signs as we head towards Phase 1 and 2 of the MJO that the STJ might have some life to it again. Perhaps we get a 10 day window before the next cold period ends. Truly our last chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 EURO isn't going to show a storm, it didn't leave enough energy back in the southwest, trended more towards GFS/GGEM...Can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 EURO isn't going to show a storm, it didn't leave enough energy back in the southwest, trended more towards GFS/GGEM...Can't catch a break. Queen Euro is going to get demoted to Dutchess this year. Go USA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 THe euro, over and over and over again seems to be over estimating the southern branch. Not sure if its bias of leaving too much energy behind is causing it to drop too much energy from the northern branch into the southwest and then falsely bringing it across and showing false alarm storms for the east or if its simply not handling this pattern well but the Euro has been crap time and time again the last 2 months. This is not just for our area, since I am an avid skiier I have been watching for snow in the Rockies and in New ENgland, and everytime there is a difference over a storm in the 5-10 day range, the Euro has folded to the GFS since December. Until things change I would disregard the euro when it shows more southern stream energy compared to the GFS. I would always disregard the CMC since I dont think it has gotten anything right all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The euro folding does not change my thoughts from above as I was never thinking this Jan 32 thing was legit, I was more talking about the Feb 1-15th period in general. Just as a WAG I think Feb 5-8th might be our first chance, then perhaps another shot towards Feb 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I just ran the euro 500 panels. GFS looks fine too. I would be very surprised if we didn't have another threat or 2 in the 31-7th timeframe. Or should I say 31st - 39th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I just ran the euro 500 panels. GFS looks fine too. I would be very surprised if we didn't have another threat or 2 in the 31-7th timeframe. Or should I say 31st - 39th. I agree completely. If one only looks at the GFS op, you miss out on seeing that the ens members have a WIDE range of solutions in the 5-7 period, and some of them have interesting storm possibilities. I can't believe there isn't more talk about Sun night Mon morning. Looks like a decent shot of mixed precip. Boy, wouldn't a little freezing rain on ground this cold be fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I agree completely. If one only looks at the GFS op, you miss out on seeing that the ens members have a WIDE range of solutions in the 5-7 period, and some of them have interesting storm possibilities. I can't believe there isn't more talk about Sun night Mon morning. Looks like a decent shot of mixed precip. Boy, wouldn't a little freezing rain on ground this cold be fun? I'd be out on an EPIC, EPIC Ice Jebwalk. I'd be happily sliding on it and doing a Michael Jackson moonwalk, while folks lay on the icy ground all around me screaming with smashed hips. I love ice with all my heart, second only to deep snow and extreme cold with high winds with zero visibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The euro folding does not change my thoughts from above as I was never thinking this Jan 32 thing was legit, I was more talking about the Feb 1-15th period in general. Just as a WAG I think Feb 5-8th might be our first chance, then perhaps another shot towards Feb 12th. Maybe something also when the pattern totally collapses. When that occurs is up for debate, but the cold may last into the 3rd week of February so we have a chance through 20th/21st. Probaly have a clipper or two thrown in. I forgot who it was but someone suggested maybe something in very early March based on one of their analogs. For te ost part I think you're right, if we don't cash in by the 15th, it's probably over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 00z NAM is holding back a lot of energy like last night's 00z EURO, however, its still not far enough west...we'll see what the rest of 00z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Threat for wintry precip Sun night is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Really hoping there's no frozen precip Monday AM. Flight out before 8. Based on LWXs 7-day, we warm up Tue-Wed and cool right back down with highs around 40 Thur and around freezing on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 light freezing rain is the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 light freezing rain is the worst 00z NAM looks like it would be a few hundreths at best... 00z GFS same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Wednesday is going to be a torch... 60s for highs? Nothing really in the LR... cold and dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Glaze ice Monday, severe thursday, and a clipper late Friday. Good week on tap! Yoda- look at 500 next Friday. Better setup than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Wednesday is going to be a torch... 60s for highs? Nothing really in the LR... cold and dry... Glaze ice Monday, severe thursday, and a clipper late Friday. Good week on tap! Yoda- look at 500 next Friday. Better setup than today. Bob Chill versus Yoda "parameters." Tough choice. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Glaze ice Monday, severe thursday, and a clipper late Friday. Good week on tap! Yoda- look at 500 next Friday. Better setup than today. Yes re: h5... but as Wes would say, we would like the vort to pass south of us in C VA instead of on top of us Yes its 7 days out... but nothing really shows up on the SLP maps or QPF maps besides a few hundredths of an inch. Wednesday night could have some storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 light freezing rain is the worst Good for you to take pics of glaze and whore them out on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Yes re: h5... but as Wes would say, we would like the vort to pass south of us in C VA instead of on top of us Yes its 7 days out... but nothing really shows up on the SLP maps or QPF maps besides a few hundredths of an inch. Wednesday night could have some storms This is another winter of crap "storms." The usual Wes/zwyts perfect analog map will never appear, so why discuss it? Every event will have major flaws and be far from "classic." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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