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Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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No doubt. As Ian said, it's mushy at best. But there is definitely room for some intuition. That's what makes it fun for me. Dominant patterns can never be overlooked regardless of what models show in the lr. We've been taught that lesson (for better or worse) time and time again. 

 

I could have made my post much shorter but colorful attachments make it look much more believable. LOL. 

 

My takeaways from my thoughts this morning are actually simple and concise:

 

1. -pna pattern broke down and there appears to be a tendency for the west coast ridge to keep re-establishing

2. PV moved over here and they don't disappear very quickly at all. It could wobble all over canada for a long time

3. -AO dominant winter is already locked. Just hedging on it staying the course until proven otherwise

4. NAO has sucked and will most likely keep us from getting a moderate+ event unless we thread the proverbial needle or it blows up over or west of gl

 

Edit to add #5: I barely know jack about the mjo except 8-1-2 is supposed to be cold hell on wheels here so toss that in the fire. 

Excellent post, Bob.  In terms of the mjo, the composites for upper air patterns in 8-1-2 are the best for true winter weather here.  With the AO cooperating, this should be a good test of the mjo influence.  The timing of the favorable phases is ideal.  Feb (after the 3rd) could deliver for us--maybe not in one dump, but in several oportunities.

 

MDstorm

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I think its been so long since we had a real winter that its easy to lose sight of what January is supposed to be like.  Today is the 4th day this month with a negative departure.  The 3rd, and the past 3 days.

where's the guy who called +4 departures cool?

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Well for what it's worth HM has a pretty exciting analysis for early February...who knows but he sure is a confident individual. I'm gonna go ahead and ride him to the finish line.....oh dear

The next shot of winter is probably our last hope around here so it better be good.

Well.. I guess you could get 1/2" of slop in March.

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