Yeoman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Severe weather potential looks interesting for next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Uh oh...jan 32nd storm lives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Uh oh...jan 32nd storm lives... Jan 32nd.JPG Yes. Saw that. I also like the look of the ridge on the west coast in the long range. The atlantic does not want to cooperate however. Obviously fantasy land anyways. But something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I hope the blowtorch next week underperforms or somehow manages to disappear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I hope the blowtorch next week underperforms or somehow manages to disappear the cold is coming back, so I won't fret we need some moisture though or it's just more frustrating b.s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 the cold is coming back, so I won't fret we need some moisture though or it's just more frustrating b.s. I haven't done a lot of model looking for the longer range. Does the next cold shot look this ferocious? I've seen a few people say it looks a bit more wimpy than this. And yes, lack of moisture is really doing us in. Though for me...the longer we can keep hot temperatures out, the better. I love chilly weather in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I haven't done a lot of model looking for the longer range. Does the next cold shot look this ferocious? I've seen a few people say it looks a bit more wimpy than this. And yes, lack of moisture is really doing us in. Though for me...the longer we can keep hot temperatures out, the better. I love chilly weather in winter. A little wimpier is better. We don't get much snow at 20 degrees around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Climo says this should be our coldest shot of the winter. Caveat may be if we get a good snow during the day etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 A little wimpier is better. We don't get much snow at 20 degrees around here. Good point. Though I just hope our next cold shot is not 38-42ish. That is a little TOO wimpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This winter has been almost exclusively pac driven. The nao has been mostly positive since around the 21st of Dec. It's also been mostly. inside of +/- 1sd throughout the winter. The only time it was significantly negative was during the first half of december but it was rendered completely useles because the -pna/crap pac pattern. The AO has been negative door to door so far except for a small blip around Jan 10th or so. But the only time we see any cold is when the pna is positive. It's an obvious connection but still, having the ao go below -2 and still not have any cold air at times here is a testament to the power of the pac this winter. Just lining up the history of the big 3 indicies, it's easy to see that our only cold corresponds with a +pna. NAO has been mostly useless the entire winter and the ao only delivers when the pac cooperates. Some serious mixed signals coming up. As you can see above, some ens guidance wants to spike the AO to as high as +3 in about a week. I've seen this several times though this winter but we've never lost that blocking signal. As the AO rises toward 0 it has managed to drop back every time. Will this time be different? I don't think so because it's been such an entrenched pattern this winter. Also, looking @ the polar 500 loops, even though there are some lower heights near the pole, I think the index reading is picking up on the PV retreating before reasserting itself in similar fashion to what we are seeing now. Euro last night re-establishes the cold air in the east d9-10 and beyond. Looking at 850 temp anoms, the coldest air relative to normal in the entire NH is centered around Indiana. That's encouraging. The reload looks pretty real imo and the +ao on ens guidance is likely to never materialize. GFS mostly agrees: The one thing that has been sucking is the NAO. We just can't get a good block in place to force a good storm track below us. Both of the above maps are "ok" but not great. Split flow is possible but then the whole timing thing with placement of shortwave features is necessary. Without that big -nao block, the variables make it near impossible for models to forecast at longer leads. This brings up a good point this year. We keep hearing the same bitching and moaning about models sucking. It gets on my nerves to be honest. We didn't hear much of that bitching and moaning in 09-10 because it was damn easy to lock in at long leads. It's not easy at all this year as long as flow remains fast so just get used to it and get over it already. Longs leads are only good for longwave features right now. Models are every bit as good this year if not better than every previous year. It's just a heck of a tough year to mathematically predict with accuracy beyond the mid-range. Both the euro and gefs take the mjo through phase 8-1 coming up over the next 2 weeks. I don't know how strongly the revered 8-1-2 promised land correlates to guaranteeing cold here but this go around I would have to say things are lining up pretty good with temps once we get past next weeks soaker. I can't say with any certainty how I feel about snow in Feb. I'll defer to others there. However, from the looks of the pattern setting up in early Feb, I would hedge that we have more chances coming and no real torch is on the radar. If the MJO is sucking on the major globals, I found a nerve calmer called the BOMM. It has everything all the time. 8-1-2 is always in play. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 CFSv2 is an oven for February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If Feb ends up warm I'm never believing seasonal forecasts again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If Feb ends up warm I'm never believing seasonal forecasts again. Yea, pretty much. More often than not in our parts, when a seasonal does do an ok job at verifying with the hard #'s it's usually right for the wrong reasons. Sometimes just throwing out #'s without disco is a better call. Well, except with mod-nino's but my 8 year old could make a good call there so it doesn't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 CFSv2 is an oven for February http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20130124.201302.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20130124.201302.gif no thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Bob, Nice post earlier. Your post is better than my outlook article that will be coming up later. Ian, did you ever believe seasonal forecasts in a non nino or nina year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20130124.201302.gif Will it be right is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Will it be right is the question. cfs (imo) just forward looks current conditions and ens lr guidance. It's flips always come on the heels of mid range flips with guidance. The fundamental prob is that 30 days is exponentially prone to more errors than say 10 days or less. Again, IMO, what the cfs is seeing right now is a cold start and a hunch it stays cold. Just look at d10+ nh height anoms progged right now. They pretty much match cfs output. I don't really know crap about the cfs methodology but I've seen how it behaves quite a bit this year. It's prob "ok" to go with the monthly idea for the beginning of the month but after that is uncertain at best and totally unpredictable at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We really only have 2 ways I can see to get a pattern that favores a significant snowfall here. We either need the STJ to become active and be able to throw some moisture into the cold air when we have some. Or...we need a west based severe NAO block to force the northern jet to slow down and dig a bit more and perhaps do the job itself. I see no sign of either in the next 10 days. Beyond that, if we turn out attention to salvaging at least one significant event this year, there is hope. As the wavelenghts shorten into February, perhaps we can get the northern branch to dig a bit more. It would help if we could get a -NAO going sometime, without that it will be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Bob, Nice post earlier. Your post is better than my outlook article that will be coming up later. Ian, did you ever believe seasonal forecasts in a non nino or nina year? Appreciate it Wes. I had to sit back this am with coffee and reassess what I was seeing going into Feb. I've been caught up cheezy snow event analysis. We had a heck of a long run of -pna months. 8 straight with a really dominant -pna in Oct-Dec. 90-91 was similar with a stong -pna in Oct-Dec but it snapped in Jan-Feb. There are other streaks that have broken similar. It does appear that we are out of the long duration dominant -pna now. Especially if it goes positive +1sd or more to kick off Feb. I'm not sure I can say I'm optimistic about Feb overall but I'm fairly confident we don't bake during the first half. Sure would be nice to have some nao help. No signal yet. If we can get a meaningful gl block + a favorable pac then we stand a chance at a moderate event. Without it I suppose we nickle and dime our way along or score the rare and elusive well timed needle threading. We're getting close to the end though. 50% of climo for me is 10.5 inches or so. I would be thrilled to hit 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Bob, Nice post earlier. Your post is better than my outlook article that will be coming up later. Ian, did you ever believe seasonal forecasts in a non nino or nina year? im a skeptic overall still i guess. i'll generally hug climo in the long term. obviously i think a few people have some stuff figured out but it's all mostly mushy and open to enough interpretation that forecasts are never "bad" unless they bust by like 30 degrees and we get negative snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Bob - This is a very good analysis using all the long range tools availabe, however, I feel like the long range tools themselves (anything beyond 5 days) at least this year are no better than giving a 2 year old "L" and "H" stickers and having them place them on a global map wherever they please. Both might nail a few features out of pure luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z euro leaves the energy behind for the ji storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Bob - This is a very good analysis using all the long range tools availabe, however, I feel like the long range tools themselves (anything beyond 5 days) at least this year are no better than giving a 2 year old "L" and "H" stickers and having them place them on a global map wherever they please. Both might nail a few features out of pure luck. No doubt. As Ian said, it's mushy at best. But there is definitely room for some intuition. That's what makes it fun for me. Dominant patterns can never be overlooked regardless of what models show in the lr. We've been taught that lesson (for better or worse) time and time again. I could have made my post much shorter but colorful attachments make it look much more believable. LOL. My takeaways from my thoughts this morning are actually simple and concise: 1. -pna pattern broke down and there appears to be a tendency for the west coast ridge to keep re-establishing 2. PV moved over here and they don't disappear very quickly at all. It could wobble all over canada for a long time 3. -AO dominant winter is already locked. Just hedging on it staying the course until proven otherwise 4. NAO has sucked and will most likely keep us from getting a moderate+ event unless we thread the proverbial needle or it blows up over or west of gl Edit to add #5: I barely know jack about the mjo except 8-1-2 is supposed to be cold hell on wheels here so toss that in the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 No doubt. As Ian said, it's mushy at best. But there is definitely room for some intuition. That's what makes it fun for me. Dominant patterns can never be overlooked regardless of what models show in the lr. We've been taught that lesson (for better or worse) time and time again. I could have made my post much shorter but colorful attachments make it look much more believable. LOL. My takeaways from my thoughts this morning are actually simple and concise: 1. -pna pattern broke down and there appears to be a tendency for the west coast ridge to keep re-establishing 2. PV moved over here and they don't disappear very quickly at all. It could wobble all over canada for a long time 3. -AO dominant winter is already locked. Just hedging on it staying the course until proven otherwise 4. NAO has sucked and will most likely keep us from getting a moderate+ event unless we thread the proverbial needle or it blows up over or west of gl Edit to add #5: I barely know jack about the mjo except 8-1-2 is supposed to be cold hell on wheels here so toss that in the fire. I said it a while back but this winter is going to be clipper climo. With what you laid out that is the only thing I see that will get us any snow during the cold outbreaks. A W ridge would be nice but with no -NAO help everything will be fast flow and light events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I said it a while back but this winter is going to be clipper climo. With what you laid out that is the only thing I see that will get us any snow during the cold outbreaks. A W ridge would be nice but with no -NAO help everything will be fast flow and light events. Pretty much...except the euro just threw a wrinkle @ d9. Closed ull in tx/ok area and 850 low along the gulf coast.....uh oh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Pretty much...except the euro just threw a wrinkle @ d9. Closed ull in tx/ok area and 850 low along the gulf coast.....uh oh..... just what we need.. a historic nc snowstorm with us getting nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 just what we need.. a historic nc snowstorm with us getting nothing Nah, its about time for a huge snowstorm to show up for us on the EURO post-day 7 and then for it to disappear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Euro has low enough heights over e canada that a block wont be needed and might actually supress anything that does form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nah, its about time for a huge snowstorm to show up for us on the EURO post-day 7 and then for it to disappear Euro likes moving closed lows through the sw. There's some support from the gfs too. Just not as pronounced. Nothing to get all hung up about now because we have to get heavily rained on first but worth watching nonetheless. Verbatim....temps aren't an issue again...ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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